MGo Weather Update:

Submitted by MGoSoftball on

My daughter is a Staff Sgt in the USAF stationed in Warner Robbins AFB.  Her MOS is short term (24 hour) weather forecasting for the Eastern USA.  Her forecasts are slightly different from the NWS that we get via Weatherbug, Weather Channel and other weather sources.

Her Lt. is a HUGE Michigan fan and has authorized her to be the "unofficial" weather forecaster for MGoBlog.  Here is her terminal forecast for KARB:

10am:  75deg  wind 010 @ 4:  Rain: 45%  Partly Sunny

11am:  77 deg   wind 010 @5   Rain: 50%  Partly Sunny

Noon:  79 deg   wind 000 @ 5  Rain: 43%  Partly Sunny

1pm:   82 deg   wind 010 @6  Rain: 40%  Partly Sunny

2pm:  82 deg  wind 000@5  Rain 40%   Partly Sunny

3pm:   84 deg  wind 010@4  Rain: 38%  Partly Sunny

KICKOFF:  84 deg   wind 000@5   Rain 37%  Partly Sunny

4pm:  84 Deg   wind 000@5   Rain 38%   Partly Sunny

5pm:  82 Deg   wind 000@4  Rain 36%  Partly Sunny

6pm: 81 Deg   wind 010@4  Rain 40%  Partly Sunny

7pm: 75 Deg  wind 045@3  Rain 45%  Partly Sunny

8pm: 72 Deg  wind 022@3  Rain 50%  Partly Sunny

 

So it looks like the game will get book-ended by rain.  So plan ahead with a poncho just in case.

 

 

 

mgobaran

August 30th, 2013 at 3:21 PM ^

if I am ever in trouble with the USAF, all I really have to do is name drop MGoBlog? Sounds good to me.

Also, thanks for the inside information. That's pretty cool.

MGoSoftball

August 30th, 2013 at 3:30 PM ^

different from the USAF.  She is forecasting a much higher humidity than Intellicast has.  Humidity+Heat=Trouble.

I will certainly heed my daughters advice and bring ponchos just in case.  I just hope it done not rain until after the game.

MGoSoftball

August 30th, 2013 at 3:27 PM ^

I remember CMU and the first-ever delay at Michigan Stadium.  I was watching the radar on my Moto Razor phone and watching the clouds roll in from the North. (I was sitting in South End zone).  It rained about 2 inches in 30 minutes and there was no where to hide. 

The PA said to "exit the stadium for your own safety".  Where the hell were we to go?  Out on an open golf course? 

I was there in 11 but was smart and left before the storms came in.  We pulled out onto State St when it unleashed.  We made it to I94 and got ahead of the storm by going 90MPH.

 

ak47

August 30th, 2013 at 3:50 PM ^

Yeah being in the student section for that game was awesome, it was so hot before the storm and nobody in the student section left, when it started to rain was the loudest cheer in the game and from that point everyone was into it until they literally kicked us out.

MSHOT92

August 30th, 2013 at 9:43 PM ^

http://classic.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:48103.1.99999&hourly=1&yday=242&weekday=Saturday 

3 hour intervals from 2am,5, 8, 11, 2pm,5, 8, and 11. Thuderstorms and current Tstorm watch for SE Michigan. I live by Wunderground, seems to be most accurate. They miss too, but not often.

50% 50% 50% 40% 40% 40% 10% 10%

 

 

MGoSoftball

August 30th, 2013 at 4:12 PM ^

It was difficult for my wife because she had to root for M and AF last year.  My youngest daughter gradutated from CMU (Michigan has no Actuary Program) so my wife will be conflicted tomorrow.

My daughter will wear her Michigan Season T with her CMU hat. 

I paid enough money to CMU so I will be dammed if I wear anything CMU tomorrow.

My boss will be tailgaiting with us tomorrow as well.  He is a Wiskey Grad but will be wearing Maize.  I told him he should wear Wiskey T shirt but it could be mistaken for ohio.

AFMich

August 30th, 2013 at 5:56 PM ^

I work with the AF's base ops and air traffic folks, and we're always in the same squadron as weather. I have found the AF weather models to be some of the most accurate, and always love getting the inside scoop on the forecast. It was especially nice while I was stationed in tornado alley; they were always the best at predicting when the big thunderstorms would pop-up.

corundum

August 30th, 2013 at 3:47 PM ^

The NAM has very low moisture at the 500 and 700 mb levels during the game. Frontal boundary will be south of the Michigan / Ohio border. Expect rain to stay to the south and east of Ann Arbor with partly cloudy skies for the majority of the blood-bath. Source: I have a meteorology degree.

MichiganPhotoRod

August 30th, 2013 at 4:08 PM ^

after 7:00 p.m. Saturday.  It will be 100% accurate.

 

The fact is, it’s going to be so damn warm tomorrow that the rain will actually feel good.  I’ll have my raincoat for my camera gear!  That’s all that matters to me.  Anyone who was at the game in ’06 and/or at WMU ’11 are veterans and will stick around until the clock reads 0:00 (or game cancelled, whichever comes first).

 

Go Blue!

hackattack13

August 30th, 2013 at 4:19 PM ^

Be prepared for rain because if you don't, it will rain....BUT if you bring a poncho and are prepared, it will not rain.  My joints and knees are bad at this weather stuff

BlueBarron

August 30th, 2013 at 4:40 PM ^

I hope it rains just enough for all the students to swivel their feet on all the seats and make a nails-on-chalkboard-esque sound effect for CMU (and my roommate*).



*Tyler if you're reading this, no hate intended, I just think it's funny ^,^

pinkfloyd2000

August 30th, 2013 at 6:03 PM ^

...and I'm not sure I do.

 

They've been going back and forth all week. About a week ago, zero percent chance, then it went to 30%, then as high as 50% -- just this morning. And now?

 

  • Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. West wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  • Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

I include tonight's forecast there because of Notre Dame 2011.

MichiganPhotoRod

August 30th, 2013 at 9:07 PM ^

Since I shoot on the field, I am not a stadium team member.  I know the limit on length of lens is officially "under six inches."  However, I have seen someone who got away with carrying in a camera with a lens much larger than the six inches and a monopod!  I was surprised he was able to get it through the gates.  I have never seen anyone at the gates take out a tape measure to see if a camera is within the limits.  The biggest issue is making sure your camera is protected from the rain!!!  Rain is NOT good for all of those electronics.

 

My suggestion is, if you're adamant about taking in your camera, be prepared to have to walk it back to your car if you are turned away at the gate.  If you can get it in, good for you.  Just make it worth your while once you get it in there!

Mgoscottie

August 31st, 2013 at 8:58 AM ^

does no one with this kind of equipment understand what a sig fig is?  43% weather prediction a day out with a 50% range from other predictors?  Bullshit....