Mel Kiper Top 10 by position

Submitted by AC1997 on November 19th, 2015 at 1:53 PM

Mel Kiper (insert jokes here) posted his early look at the top ten NFL prospects by position.  (link).  Interesting things to note:

  • Jake Butt is the #2 TE
  • Jourdan Lewis is the #7 CB
  • Joe Kerridge is the #8 FB
  • No other Michigan player appears anywhere.  
  • MSU has 5 players on the list (Cook, Conklin, Allen, Pendleton, Calhoun)
  • PSU has 4 players on the list (Hackenberg, Nassib, Johnson, Zettel)
  • Ohio State has a stunning 12 players on the list.  I'm not going to name them all because it makes me sad.  

That last bullet point is the best way to explain why OSU is ranked ahead of Iowa despite a worse resume.  (Iowa has one person on this list.) 

It will be hard for Jake Butt to stick around if he's the #2 TE on the board when the draft rolls around.  If that's the case, let's hope he tears it up the rest of the season in a bunch of Michigan victories.  

Comments

madmaxweb

November 19th, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^

Gotta remember, NFL teams generally like taller CB's. Obviously being tall doesn't mean they will automatically be better but I'm guessing that was a huge reason for him being so low. Though I didn't look at his article so I could be completely wrong and this post would be pointless.

ak47

November 19th, 2015 at 2:11 PM ^

There are six more athletic cbs, not necessarily playing better in college.  I hate when people try start shit like this.  Tim Tebow has some of the best stats of any college qb ever.  Denard Robinson was a successful college qb with crazy yardage totals.  Hawaii qbs broke ncaa passing records for years.  None of those guys were top draft picks or proved anyone wrong for not drafting them.  Putting up great numbers in college doesn't mean you will be the best in the nfl, its a different game with a different level of athlete.  Burbridge is probably a 3rd or 4th rd wr who will probably be at best a 4th wr for the first couple of years in the league and he and jourdan lewis played to about a stalemate.  If you are picking a db in the first round its someone you hope to be able to putt on antonio brown in 3 years.  I love lewis but he probably doesn't project to be that guy. 

schreibee

November 19th, 2015 at 2:23 PM ^

Tim Tebow was in fact a high draft choice, and led his team to the playoffs and a win over the vaunted Steeler D.

Perhaps the most important take of those facts is that Josh McDaniels is currently hiding in Tom Brady's large shadow, waiting for another opportunity to be a HC. I'm no great Lions fan, and I've sworn off my local team the 49ers for obvious reasons, but there's 2 teams that could use a new coach...

In fact, I'm thinking he might be just what the Dr ordered for Colin Kapernik?

schreibee

November 19th, 2015 at 2:45 PM ^

Tim Tebow was the 25th pick of the 1st round of the 2010 NFL draft. On January 8th 2012 Tebow threw for 316 yds and 2 TD in leading the Broncos over the Steelers in OT.

Dude - clearly Tim Tebow has had a less than stellar NFL career taken as a whole. MY POINT wasn't touting Tim, it was pointing out that YOU WERE WRONG!!!!!

He was highly drafted - you said he wasn't. He had some NFL success, you said he didn't.

When given the opportunity to clarify or correct yourself, you instead doubled down with furher inaccuracies!

You're a gem, keep posting brother! (Plus you decided to use the name of a weapon as your user name - either that or a mediocre Russian basketball player, chiefly remembered for being posterized by Baron Davis in the playoffs!)

mzdmv

November 19th, 2015 at 2:58 PM ^

Ok, you got him on one thing. He was drafted high but the main point was he didn't have NFL success.

 

You're cherry-picking 1 playoff game out of his career. By that same logic, Matt Flynn is elite for that one really good game he played. Nevermind the fact that he couldn't win a starting job anywhere else given ample opportunites, hmm, kind of like Tebow!

ak47

November 19th, 2015 at 3:14 PM ^

1 game is not having success in the nfl, thats a multi year thing to achieve.  Being the 25th pick isn't high for a guy who held multiple records and is considered by some to be one of the most succesful college players of all time.  And you haven't refuted any of the overall points my post made which is to say that college numbers neither gaurantee a high draft nor success in the nfl.  These scouts make a lot of money because they tend to be right and can look past just statistics.  It takes a different level of athlete to succeed on the nfl level.  The fact that lewis is the 8th best cb prospect despite being the most accomplished this year is a reflection of that, I'm not sure why that is a difficult concept to grasp.

Jourdan Lewis could both be an all-american this year and the 8th best pro prospect, both can simaltaneously happen and both be correct.   

schreibee

November 19th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^

Cmon ak & bib - who's cherry picking here? They were IN THE PLAYOFFS with Tebow as their starting QB. AND they won a game - where he hit the game winner in OT. The greater point I made there you've all glossed over is about Josh McDaniels skill at assessing and developing talent. Tebow was going places when they were together, nothing since. And Lance Kiffin gets 2nd and 3rd...4th...chances while McDaniels stays in NE waiting I assume for the right opportunity.

This was never about whether Tim Fu**ing Tebow is going in the NFL Hall of Fame - it was about hasty generalities, inaccurate reporting of opinions as facts, and especially about making assumptions about the skills of NFL scouts. McDaniels (and I assume Elway) were the only ones who thought tebow should go that high. And for the time they were together it worked.

Have you not been watching all the highly drafted busts every year? You'd think a top 10 pick would be almost gauranteed of being a star, right? Tons of tape on them from HS thru college, camps, personal workout days, etc...but many many are simply not.

Further, ak dissed Denard in his op, but Denard's biggest problem in the pros (which he exhibited a bit at M as well) is lack of durability. He had 4 consecutive 100 yd rushing gmaes last year before getting dinged.

I guess I just didn't like or agree with much of his list of examples of people who had great college stats but weren't cut out for the NFL - except the Hawaii QBs - that was spot on!

But seriously - dude said he wasn't drafted high - he was. Said he didn't do anything in the NFL - he did. Rebutted with he wasn't responsible for the playoff win - he WAS!

Dude, when someone shows you FACTS that refute your opinions, just say so. Seriously! Childish much?!

And how are you now dropping Jourdan from 7th to 8th? Do you really believe there are 6 (or 7 or more?) CBs that will have better careers in the NFL than JL? I think that's crazy! He plays the postion virtually flawlessly. AND another and - Burbridge will go in the 4th round and be a 4th WR on some team? No, uh uh, not close. Bet ya!! He's gonna be huge in gthe league.

ak47

November 19th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^

I mean Tebow's stats the year they won a playoff game

46.5% compeletion percentage at 6.4 a pop with 12 tds and 6 ints.He had a QBR of 29.5 that year.  Having a great defense doesn't make you a great qb.  Hell Trent Dilfer won a super bowl while guiding an offense that didn't score a touchdown for 3 straight games at one point that year.  Team wins don't define qb play.  They won 5 games that year scoring under 20 points.  They also lost a game 7-3.

Denard has alse been a solid rb, but he wouldn't have been a good qb.  There are no facts or statistics that can show Tebow having success in the NFL and as much as you claim Josh McDaniels saw in Tebow he got cut from the Patriots since apparently Mcdaniles didn't even think he was good enough to be the backup qb.

Sure some people bust, thats part of sports, but just like recruiting rankings the overall trend points to them being right a vast majority of the time.  Not sure how anything I have said could be construed as childish but sure, keep slingling insults as the mature adult in this discussion.

bluebyyou

November 19th, 2015 at 6:07 PM ^

Tebow was reunited with Josh McDaniel in 2013 when the Patriots picked Tebow up. Lots of people thought that if Belichick/McDaniel couldn't make it work for Tebow, then Tebow was a lost cause. Even during his best year, 2011, Tebow completed well below half of his passes and if I remember right, had fumbleitis. 

The streets of the NFL are paved with the corpses of high draft choices that didn't meet expectations.  Tebow worked great in Meyer's system at Florida, just like Pryor, Miller, Barrett and to a lesser extent, Jones have done at OSU.  Yet, like Pryor, his pro career just didn't work out. Miller would have in all likelihood not be a high draft choice at QB even had the stayed healthy.  Ditto for Barrett.

You bring up Denard...I have wondered how Harbaugh would have used him.

Oscar

November 19th, 2015 at 4:36 PM ^

"He was highly drafted - you said he wasn't."

I believe AK47's point was that with Tebow's stats and success in college, he should have been a top 3 pick. So a late first round is in fact low if you were expecting top 3. I don't care either way, just adding fuel to the fire.

ak47

November 19th, 2015 at 4:18 PM ^

He was under 50% for completions on the game, they hit some really big plays but unless you would say the michigan secondary was a sieve against msu this year than I would disagree with your chareterization. 

bluesalt

November 19th, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^

As a Denver Broncos fan who lived in Boston until recently, here's my McDaniels take:

1) I don't think he got a fair shake in Denver, given the terrible cap situation Shanahan left him with.
2) That said, he very much sought out total control of everything, and his very poor first draft, both in picks and trades, was a result of that.
3) That said, it was generally understood that Tebow was chosen under the directive of ownership. Bowlen publicly declared that he wanted a QB that draft. The top 4 QBs were Bradford, Tebow, Clausen, and McCoy. Bradford went #1, leaving no real good choices. Even though he's out of the league now, you can still make a strong argument he was the second-best QB taken that year.
4) Accordingly, I don't think he's especially interested in a QB like Kap. Wouldn't necessarily shy away from him, but wouldn't seek him out.
5) I don't expect him to leave New England. Rather, I expect him to take over when Belichek is gone, because then he will be able to take over a staff he's worked with.

I think he'd be a bad fit for the Lions. He's not the right coach to walk into a power vacuum.

schreibee

November 19th, 2015 at 4:00 PM ^

Blue salt, you sprinkle your opinions with some fact like seasoning, so I accept them.

I don't live in Denver or NE, so I defer to your knowledge there. But I do recall it was made pretty clear that Tebow was Mcdaniel's personal choice, not Elway's. Perhaps it was because all the other QBs were worse (as they've pretty much turned out to be.)

And while I've been recounting the passing stats from the playoff win, I never mentioned that Tebow also had numerous 100+ YD rushing games under McDaniels. He might work well with Kap, but talk about walking into a bad situation...

We're lucky to have Harbaugh, but he's just as lucky to be rid of Jed & Trent!!

ShadowStorm33

November 19th, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^

Looking back through, you're right, Tebow probably was the 2nd best qb from that draft. It's Bradford (who hasn't exactly been a world beater himself) and a whole lot of nothing after that. But damn, was that draft stacked at TE. Jermaine Gresham, Gronk, Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez (I know, I know, but he did have a ton of success before shit hit the fan)...

ak47

November 19th, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^

Jimmy Smith is the ravens #1 CB, he is in the top half of the league but not truly elite and was drafted something like 22nd.  He is 6'2 and runs a timed 4.47 40.  Jourdan Lewis is a generous 5'10 and runs a 4.6.  He is a really smart player but when you are going up against 6'4 wr's with 4.4 speed those physical limitations matter a lot less.  You see that wr in college maybe once a year and probably not at all, a lot of nfl teams have multiple guys at least 6 ft that run under 4.6s.  Its a different level athletically and that is what will hold Lewis back.  His place in the nfl is probably as nickel back covering slot guys who run sub 4.4s in the combine, that isn't a 1st rd grade. 

ak47

November 19th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^

His recruiting profile,  I know its old but its was also probably inflated so I figured an increase in speed over the last 3 years is about the same as inflated high school stats, guys pretty rarely get significantly faster during college as they add muscle to handle the game better.  Which is another potential problem for Lewis at the next level which is his frame, he would be a super skinny db at the nfl level.

edit to add it is his espn recruiting profile and the 40 time listed is 4.68 which was from a timed forty at army all-american game. 

ak47

November 19th, 2015 at 4:25 PM ^

They do?  I've heard otherwise.  Denard had a 40 time in high school of 4.39 and he ran a 4.32 at the combine and his personal best 100 meter time was a 10.44 in high school even though he ran track while at Michigan.  Its hard to maintain the same speed when you start putting on the muscle a college S&C program gets you to deal with the added physicality. 

mzdmv

November 19th, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^

Obviously there are exceptions and everyone develops differently, but in general adding muscle has an inverse relationship with speed.

Take Ojemudia or Charlton for example, they put on a lot of weight once they got into the college program and lost some explosiveness and quickness because of it. That's usually what happens. For the most part, athletic freaks are the ones that can add weight and have virtually no effect on their speed and agility. 

ak47

November 19th, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^

Yes it is possible to get faster in college put you pulled that stat from an article literally talking about how on a whole players in fact do not get faster during college and the ones that do are the exception.  You proved my point better than I did, so thank!

woodfeld

November 19th, 2015 at 2:19 PM ^

To be fair, the 7th CB taken in the 2015 draft was picked 50th overall (Ronald Darby).  Would any of us be surprised if Lewis was taken mid-2nd round?  I feel like he's a 1st-2nd rounder, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to be ranked the 7th best CB going into the 2016 draft.