MD/Rutgers Theories/Crazy ideas. How does this all shake out in the end?

Submitted by JeepinBen on November 19th, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Now that Maryland is officially joining the B1G, with Rutgers soon to follow, let's get your tinfoil hats out and figure out WHY*

I think my favorite somewhat-crazy idea is that this is a big F U to Notre Dame. When all the conference expansion hoopla was happening everyone pretty much figured that there were going to be 4 conferences left, with 16 teams each. The 4 conference champs get the 4 football playoff spots. Made enough sense.

The question is which of the 5 "power conferences" would get destroyed and join the other 4. Well, the B1G is making a move to insure that the ACC won't survive with any clout. The B1G, SEC, and PAC12 are on great footing and sure to make it. They have their own networks, best financial footings, and (historically) great teams and rivalries.

The BigXII has Texas and Oklahoma after being raided by the SEC. The ACC is getting raided by the B1G.

The SEC is at 14 teams, with room for 2 more to become a Superconference. The B1G will be in the same spot now, and the PAC12 needs to figure out which 4 teams it can get to join them. Texas and Oklahoma are the obvious answers, with maybe Boise and another team I'm not thinking of. The SEC will take FSU and probably Clemson.

ND will have a choice, do they stay in the ACC/BigXII conglomerate with the likes of Duke and Baylor? Or do they become a member of the B1G?

What's your tinfoil hat telling you? How does this all shake out?

*Besides TV markets and Money. because those are the real, boring answers

Comments

willywill9

November 19th, 2012 at 11:04 AM ^

To think this has much to do with ND is odd to me.  I mean, first of all, doesn't the ACC get 60 million out of this?  Second, they just added Big East schools (that I'm sure even the big ten would rather have.)

If we're raiding the ACC, then do that... go for the jugular... go after FSU, Miami, VT, GT, Clemson.  Not Maryland. 

jblaze

November 19th, 2012 at 11:18 AM ^

I think this is independent of ND. It's simply a push to get into the NYC/ DC marketplaces, where a lot of B1G alumni live. The B1G has to believe that they would make out like bandits, if the NYC and DC metro cable companies were to put the BTN on basic/ the upgrade to basic.

More importantly, the NYC and DC matro markets are much wealthier than the midwest (even including Chicago), so that upscale goods makers can target wealthier, college educated people with lux/ feau lux goods (think Lexus > Ford Trucks).

If the B1G took ND, then who is #14? The B1G is all over the state of PA, so Pitt is out. Missouri sucks and is in a declining area. I guess it still could have been RU or MD + ND, but solidifying the NYC & DC markets was a great move.

STW P. Brabbs

November 19th, 2012 at 11:26 AM ^

But the size of the overall market would seem to matter much less than the number of people in that market who can be reasonably expected to, you know, watch the games.

This is why Notre Dame would have been a much more attractive candidate. You're not adding the Northern Indiana market. You're adding the many, many thousands of people who care about Notre Dame and watch their games - all across the country.

Belonging to the B1G is not going to magically make the millions of people in Maryland/DC and New Jersey suddenly care about college football. That's a pipe dream, full stop.

Needs

November 19th, 2012 at 11:35 AM ^

It's not so much about attracting new fans, though that may be thought of as a potential side benefit, it's about extracting carriage fees from the millions of people who subscribe to basic cable, even if they don't care about college football or sports in general. 

ESNY

November 19th, 2012 at 11:40 AM ^

It doesn't matter if one more person from MD or NYC ever watches the game.  But by expanding to those two markets, the argument goes, the cable companies will have to put the Big Ten on its basic cable lineup, rather than a sports tier.  That means tens of millions of more subscribers * the per-subscriber rate = $$$$$$$.   That is why all these people who keep shouting that Rutgers doesn't have a big following in NYC are incorrect. 

FreddieMercuryHayes

November 19th, 2012 at 11:21 AM ^

This would make A LOT of sense if the end game is to add UNC and Duke like Dodd is theorizing. Remember, it's not all about football. If the B1G added UMd, UNC, and Duke, it would gut the basketball side and also strengthen other sports the B1G is growing like lacrosse. Not to mention that it would add a ton of markets and viewership which will be key in negotiatons for big time bowls and auto bids to the playoffs. I don't think it's purely ND related, but I also don't think it's not in Delany's mind. Keep in mind that if the B1G makes a move to 16 teams, then the SEC will have to follow and they could also pick off some premier ACC schools. Basically the ACC could survive, but it would basically just be the Big East if the expansion goes crazy.

icefins26

November 19th, 2012 at 11:05 AM ^

I think when it's all said and done, it'll be Maryland and Georgia Tech.  I don't think Rutgers ends up shaking out - just a hunch.  Maryland adds the D.C. market and Georgia Tech adds the Atlanta market plus a school with strong academics and a solid (not great but better than Rutgers) athletic department.  I think it's the best balance.  Sure, it's not NYC from a cash perspective, but I think it's the better option.  

willywill9

November 19th, 2012 at 11:08 AM ^

Atlanta has a very large market, and I would be ecstatic if we added GaTech (for personal/selfish reasons).

Personally, I'd hope for Miami or Georgia Tech.  The question you ask yourself then though, would be, what happens to GaTech-Clemson, GaTech-VT.  It made sense for Nebraska to jump from the Big 12, but  I don't know if GaTech has a reason to leave.  I don't know enough though, i suppose $$ is always reason enough.

Trebor

November 19th, 2012 at 11:43 AM ^

Maryland doesn't add the DC market. The Big Ten already has that via PSU - their largest alumni chapter is the DC one. Maryland adds ugly football jerseys and a sometimes good basketball team. Plus the ability to have a Big Ten lacrosse conference with a national powerhouse team.

Gameboy

November 19th, 2012 at 11:13 AM ^

Just look at it from Delaney's point of view and everything makes perfect sense.

Here is his POV:

He is convinced that in the not too distant future, the college landscape will be dominated by 4 super conferences (which is in his benefit, obviously). In that landscape, what is B1G's ideal scenario?

There are only two as three of the super conferences are already set; B1G, SEC, and PAC. The only options are whether or not Big12 or ACC will survive. But who do we want to survive?

That answer is obvious: Big12.

Big 12 will expand from Texas to Florida, heavily overlapping the TV markets for SEC. This bears absolutely no threat to B1G, while making sure that SEC is kept in check for the future.

Meanwhile, ACC is a big threat to B1G. B1G schools like PSU and Michigan enjoy a great deal of support from NE. I remember growing up in Long Island, seeing many Michigan/PSU games on TV. If ACC becomes a super conference, by taking many of the old Big East schools, that dominance in NE is certainly in danger and may isolate B1G as pure midwest play.

Add to the fact that if ND joins ACC in football, that all but seals PSU and UM out of NE market, this is a danger that could not be left to idle while Delaney is in charge.

By adding Rutgers, Maryland, and shortly thereafter, UNC and UVA, B1G guarantees that there will be no other conference that could compete against B1G in the NE corridor. B1G will control the most lucrative TV market among all conferences and ensure its dominance (at least financially) for the future.

It really is a very smart move by a very smart man.

justingoblue

November 19th, 2012 at 11:32 AM ^

but it seems just as plausible to say that Duke and UNC will decide to go wherever together along with NC-State. That would end the political problems and give them a stronger negotiating position.

From what I remember about UVa, they're absolutely not able to leave without VT, unless the SEC or someone comes along and takes VT simultaneously.

maizenbluenc

November 19th, 2012 at 1:20 PM ^

You have to take UNC and Duke.

That would polish B1G basketball and LAX credentials a lot, but doesn't buy you much TV market-wise or football. (http://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets) Raliegh-Durham is the 27th ranked TV market.

Georgia Tech would be the bigger get ratings wise: Atlanta is #8. But the territory wouldn't be contiguous.

 

gopoohgo

November 19th, 2012 at 12:36 PM ^

From Virginia, UNC board stalking last night, UVa-VTech and UNC-NCState aren't married from legislature points of view.

The respective legislatures do not want VaTech and NCState frozen out of a BCS league.

So if VaTech goes to the SEC, and NCState goes to SEC/Big12, UVa and UNC are free to go wherever they want.

Don

November 19th, 2012 at 11:07 AM ^

It's all about three things: 1) Money; 2) More money; 3) Huge buckets of money

However, eventually, we'll be the Big 16. It might take three or more years to put into place, but that's where this is ending up.

Wendyk5

November 19th, 2012 at 11:27 AM ^

When the conference reaches twenty, it splits in half, each claiming it's the real Big Ten. Then they wrangle over the name "Big Ten" in court, incurring huge court costs and legal fees. I don't see this ending well at all. 

justingoblue

November 19th, 2012 at 11:09 AM ^

they lose Maryland, which has zero division titles, ranks ninth in ACC attendance (51st nationally), and has one conference title since I've been alive (I'll be 23 next month). They still have Miami, FSU, VT, plus Clemson and GT and an association with ND, not to mention UNC and Duke in basketball.

It might be a little unsettling losing a founding member, but still...if this is the Big Ten taking their best shot at preventing the SEC from getting two more great additions, it's a miserable failure, IMO.

mGrowOld

November 19th, 2012 at 11:08 AM ^

In all due respect I dont see this as a "Big FU" to Notre Dame.  I see it as a "Big FU" to Rotel and Barbasol.

The price of advertising cheese dip and a nice close shave is about to go up.

Pulled P

November 19th, 2012 at 11:08 AM ^

ND would rather fold their football program entirely than join the B1G after this. They're going to the Pac12 where they have a buddy in USC and they can still 'stand out' as a midwest team on a west coast conference.

PlayByPlay

November 19th, 2012 at 11:09 AM ^

And I for one am hoping, and have been for a while, that this ends with VT and UVA in the B1G. These two schools would be great in both the athletic and academic sense, and would ensure our footprint into the entire Virginia/DC/Maryland markets.

Pulled P

November 19th, 2012 at 11:13 AM ^

Duke and NC aren't going to bring the Carolinas. A lot of people seem to like the idea of GT, but if you really want that area you better get UGA. Not happening. But if the B1G gets UVA and VT along with Maryland, then Virgina becomes B1G territory.

ESNY

November 19th, 2012 at 11:09 AM ^

This was a crazy plan by Jim Delany to get rid of the Legends/Leaders name but still save face.   New division names with be Studs (Michigan, OSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Penn St) and Duds (MSU, Minn, NW, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers and Maryland) - and yes, I know its imbalance 5 teams vs. 9... mad genius that Delany is

Red is Blue

November 19th, 2012 at 11:29 AM ^

Actually going to four divisions.  Studs (Michigan, OSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska)  Schools that used to be Studs but probably aren't going to be Studs again for a while (Minn, Penn St), Duds (NW, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers and Maryland) and Laying in the Weeds (MSU)

ijohnb

November 19th, 2012 at 11:16 AM ^

shakes out into further expansion, with super-conferences in football.  Less like conferences then regional affiliations with the "conference championship games" being more like a regional final in an NCAA tournament.  The only way a playoff works is if the entire season is essentially the playoff, with the conference title games having meaning in terms of who "advances."  Within 10 years the pre-conference slate will not exist in the format it does right now.  Games against teams like Eastern and UMass will be "exhibition" games, and there will likely be no more than one of them a year, maybe two.  The playoff-bowl game fusion formula is doomed to failure and is not a long term model of determining the national champion.  The future of college football is an entirely different product.