MBB Recruiting: 2016 4* G Jarron Cumberland
With Jaylen Brown off the board to Cal and Kenny Williams to North Carolina, Michigan is done with 2015 recruiting and the coaches have turned their full attention to 2016. They were recently in Spiece, Indiana, to watch 2016 guard Jarron Cumberland out of Wilmington, Ohio. Cumberland is averaging just under 17 point/game on the EYBL circuit. He is ranked #64 in the country to Rivals and holds mainly regional offers at this point - Cincinnati, Butler, Purdue, and Xavier. Cumberland said he expects to visit campus soon and will receive a UM offer when he does.
Playing the comparison game, Cumberland reminds me a bit of Chauncey Billups. He's a good shooter and quite strong for his height, allowing him to take smaller guards down on the block. He plays low and isn't vertically or horizontally explosive, but he uses hesitation dribbles well to get to the rim and appears to be a solid finisher. At this point, I assume the coaches are looking at him as mainly a 2-guard, but with some work on his handle, I'm sure he'd be able to play some point as well if needed.
Some recent highlights here: https://youtu.be/Q2_fslOqb0Y
Beilein will offer, he'll be a very strong Michigan lean. He'll get a series of bumps into the Top 50, then 35, and will eventually start flirting with the 5* range on one of the sites. Many other hats will be flung into the ring. Kentucky or Duke will miss on one of their Plan A targets and girls will begin licking his car door handle. He'll pick one of those schools (or Cal) and people will say Beilein can't recruit.
if you ignore the past two recruiting classes.
I agree. I suppose my sarcasm wasn't clear. We've landed several players who've rankings have risen over time, and only lost a couple in the manner I jest.
...at best. Look at who came in with Trey: Brundidge and Bielfeldt. Two guys whose college careers have been average at best.
Beilein was bringing in solid contributors but that was talent that was probably going to max out at the Sweet 16. If people are going to ignore Michigan hoops history prior to 1997, they may be okay with that, but our hoops program has been more successful than any other B1G program except Indiana and maybe OSU.
While your opinion is that Michigan is more successful than any other B1G program except Indiana and maybe OSU, the facts don't support you.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Ten_Conference
Purdue has the most B1G regular season championships with 22, followed by Indiana, OSU, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Michigan has 14 and MSU has 13. Based on winning percentage, Illinois is first, followed by Indiana, Purdue, and Ohio State. Michigan is 8th. Michigan has never won a B1G tournament championship if you right discount the vacated titled. OSU has 4 and Wisconsin has 3. Indiana has 5 national championships and MSU has 2. We're one of 4 schools with 1 title. We're 12th in total wins.
Before the NCAA took away the wins during the Fab Five/Traylor years? Before the dark days of Ellerbe and Amaker?
The B1G has taken advantage of our poorly run basketball program from 1997 (which was the beginning of the B1G tournament) until 2008-2009. Despite all that, we've been to the third most Elite 8s, fourth most Final Fours with the revised numbers. You do that with elite talent.
Say what you want, but those vacated games happened. And those kids did not come here because of Ed Martin, nor was their play enhanced by him. Historically, this has always been a winning program.
MSU's 13 league titles have come since 1950. Our 14 have come since 1917. Who is more successful? Izzo has 7 league titles in his time at State. To say we're only behind Indiana is ludicrous.
Izzo benefited because of two things: A certain rollover accident and Ellerbe pissing off HS coaches in Michigan while gambling on questionable recruits. My point is that this program, pre-1997, was considered an elite program that could recruit nationally with anybody.
Pre-1997, you could only point to Indiana and OSU as programs with comparable success (regular season and post season). I did not mention Purdue because they only had two Final Four appearances and no NCAA titles, but you can certainly make an argument for them.
My impression of our program pre-1997 starts in the 70's with the Mike McGee teams. They were good, but couldn't sustain a high level year in and year out (I remember the Thad Garner teams). I don't think we've ever had a continuous, decades-long era of dominance a la the football team and their 40 consecutive winning seasons and bowl game streak.
After the Garner era, Frieder came in and we got excited because we won the NIT! But how much of the Frieder/Fisher success was attributable to Michigan being an elite program versus questionable recruiting tactics. Maybe they are the same thing (see: Kentucky), but MSU was just as successful as we were during that time frame. They had the Magic era, followed by Skiles, Steve Smith, and the Flintstones (arguable falls just after your pre-1997 time frame, but I can pick an arbitrary time frame just as well as you can). In Heathcote's last 6 seasons (88-95) the team made 5 NCAA tournaments and an NIT, and finished 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, and 8 in the Big Ten.
It's such a part of college hoops that you almost can't have a fair conversation if you use that argument. Michigan might have a couple more NCAA titles if UCLA played by the rules. UCLA was dirty in ALL CAPS. Ed Martin was helping out kids going to UM, MSU, Iowa and other programs. It's all over.
Also, I'm not saying MSU's program was garbage before Izzo got there. But it was not better than ours either. During that period from 88-95 that you mention, we won NCAA one title and went to two more title games. Not to mention an Sweet 16 in 1988 and Elite 8 in 1994. You go back previous to the Mike McGee years you'll see us again have success in the tournament while Sparty was being shut out.
I am one of those people that believe that if we hired a competent coach to replace Fisher, this run of Sparty dominance in the state would not have materialized. People seem to forget that Kentucky's program was shredded by the NCAA, but they hired the right coach in Pitino to get them back on top. Maybe Beilein should've been hired in 1998.
We have a pretty substantial lead vs. MSU in records head to head. We were a better bball program than them up until 1997. We have accomplished more since 2010. We still have more NC game appearances than them despite the decade from 2000 to 2010.Also, calling Frieder dirty is as unsubstantiated as calling Izzo dirty. There's no evidence either way.
As a basketball program we were neither comparable to them or elite. We were very up and down over the years. We had a few sustained years of elite level recruiting in the Ed Martin era. That wasn't typical for Michigan.
Is just seems silly to put asterisks to what Izzo has done. We've never had a run of success like that. He's done it with good, but definitely not elite, recruiting too.
But Izzo was definitely the biggest benefactor of Michigan's post-sanctions downfall. It basically enabled him to have his pick of the litter from in-state recruits.
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Facts are pesky things.
I think the sites update their rankings once they've gotten a chance to see kids during the spring/summer AAU season. That way, the evaluators are able to see these guys go head-to-head. So, maybe Rivals has updated more recently than Scout.
For instance, I'm sure a kid like Kevin Huerter will move into the top 100 once the dust settles since he's had a stellar spring in AAU.
He looks very strong with the ball. Also finishes well with either hand.
Might be a nice combo guard prospect. He has nice length at 6'4"-6'5" (multiple sites). I wonder if he's done growing.
I am fine with taking him as long as we get another primary ball handler. I don't think Cumberland could fit that role. Good using his body, should tighten his handle in college, solid jumper, though I think he'll have to shoot a little bit quicker when he gets to college. His body is college ready and would add an element that we haven't really seen from guards at Michigan in a while - bull strength.
Right, Michigan seemingly needs a PG first. Next year, Walton will be a senior and Spike will be gone. And Michigan only knows for sure that it will have one spot available next year.
The problem with offering this guy right now would be that he might commit given his other offers. Then you can't promise a Cassius Winston that he'll have a spot. Michigan can afford to offer the Tyus Battles of the world, because they'll obviously choose other schools. You offer a Tyus Battle just for laughs. But this kid might say yes.
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then we have no scholarships for 2016. That would not be good. We need a PG in that class, IMHO. If I were Winston, or any other PG with an UM offer, I would take it while it is still available (assuming that you want to go to UM). Beilein can't afford to wait too long on a PG to make up their mind.
We have 2 commits for next year already. Davis and Teske.
for two seasons and only contributes for one. On the surface, that simply seems bad for the team.
There's talk of Davis going prep for a year and coming in 17. If that happens, we'll have two scholarships open for 16. I also would be surprised if we didn't have at least one more departure from the program. Big logjam for minutes at the 3-4 (Irvin, Dawkins, Wilson, Kam, Wagner, Robinson). Also the possibility of Wagner not passing his english exam. So I don't think taking Cumberland is that big of a risk if he commits before a PG. My worry is that we take Huerter and Cumberland. I don't think either can be the primary ball handler/creator. Huerter is a better ball handler but I just worry about him being able to consistently beat more athletic defenders. Great vision for an off guard though. I'd rather take only one of Huerter/Cumberland + a PG.
Spike is gone, Caris is gone, Hatch's spot is now open, and Davis will almost assuredly prep, so I think you're recruiting for 2 more 2016 spots at this point in addition to Teske - one PG and one 2-guard.
Are you certain Davis will prep? 247 just put him as the #10 center in the country, #82 prospect overall. That's higher than Teske.
They're certainly the outlier, but Davis attracted a lot of attention in the last few months from multiple programs. Is there a benefit to having him prep, rather than come in and redshirt? I understand you get another year out of him, and you separate he and Teske.
I'm not doubting you, but where does that idea come from?
something being that Winston isn't especially likely to end up in AA. Rather than wait wait wait whiff hey hey let's see what availalbe ladies the local dive bar has at 1:30AM, Beilein is going to take the available "B" -- A bird in the hand.
Michigan is not in a position where it can just cross it's fingers and hope. I've been shouted down before for making this argument, but Walton going pro isn't out of the question. [did you know he is not tall?] Michigan can't afford to have MAAR be the primary ball-handler. They need another guy, probably 2 in 2016, who can run the offense.
I think Michigan is working with the assumption that they have 2 spots. One for a pure PG, one for a combo guard/wing that can dribble on LeVert/Stauskas level at least. Whether that second spot opens up from an NBA departure (I would put the odds of Irvin at 50/50 and other guys like Wagner or Walton as unlikely but possible). Then you have the possibility of a transfer from whoever loses out the wing/forward playing time scrum between Robinson, Chatman, Wilson, Wagner, Donnal. Then you have (maybe) the possibility of the prep year for Davis. One way or another Michigan is going to have at least 2 kids in the 2016 class, with a very decent chance it ends up at 3. In an ideal world, there is Walton, a freshman backup, another freshman guard, and MAAR in 2016. [While Irvin, Dawkins and maybe Robinson can moonlight at SG, they are better fits on the wing.]
I think the play for them is to get who they can now (or whenever it is feasible), and then keeping working the elite guys to see what might shake out.
This may be silly but any chance MAAR can develop into a good PG by year 3/4?
you still need another PG.
Hopefully California doesn't offer him.
now that it appears we may strike out on our top guard/wing targets once again in 2016. We obviously had success with the top 100 types before so hopefully JB can recreate that success, but it would certainly be easier to do with a top 25 guy here or there. Not sure that is meant to be for whatever reasons.
think he is all Sparty.
But my co-worker (A MSU grad and HUGE slappy) has a son (HS Freshman) that plays on the AAU circuit. So he goes to these tournement with his son and "mingles" with the Sparty crowd. He keeps chirping that Winston is "a lock for MSU" or "in the bag" and the "Sparty" crowd is pretty confident with Winston. Just scuttlebutt I know, but it is in direct contrast to some prevailing thoughts here. BTW, his son is a 6'5" freshman that is being "asked" to go to Clarkston HS so that he can play there.
I just don't know where to look at this now. I realize that you are not going to get every recruit, but how these things twist and turn at the last minute is bizzare.
Sam Webb gives MSU a slim lead in the Winston recruitment. MSU was a big leader early, says Sam, but Michigan has closed that gap somewhat.
So we'll have Muhammed Ali & Cassius on the same team & Jake Ryan just joined a guy he used to be a lookalike of, Clay Matthews, & we already have connections with THE Ali. I think it's pretty obvious we're going to shock the world & be the champs pretty soon!
Aaaaaagh!
From this video has a very controlled game and seems mature for his age. Appears to have a strong body to drive, take the bump, and finish. I like his long distance shot, not much movement or effort which should make him consistent and not a streaky shooter. Not great hops. Interesting, as he is not a typicall body type for JB to recruit at the 2-3.
we have stopped recruiting Seth Towns which makes sense. We need guards in the worst way.
Can't wait to be bridesmaids again. Let's hope the other blue blood schools happen to skip his tape by accident or something.
I think this comparison partly comes from his frame and the fact that he looks a little bit like the guy, but I get a bit of a Deron Williams vibe. Both guys are sort of combo guards with ability to get to the basket with brute strength or with some wiggle. Deron had a way better handle and is much quicker, but the playing style is reminiscent.
A college level comparison would be Shelvin Mack, who was at Butler during their two deep tournament runs. I was a freshman and sophomore at Butler doing those years, and I remember Shel fondly. He's another guy whose handle is efffective for his game, but not as clean or pretty as you might expect for someone who score so much at the basket. He was also 6'3" and about 200-210 pounds.
We need a PG desperately in the class. I'm not feeling the Cassius Winston recruitment so Coach B will have to pivot and set his sights on other blue chip guards while he still can. I'm still hoping Jamal Murray will be an option but I do not know where things stand with him...
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I'm holding off on getting my hopes up for anyone.
For all of the pros Beilein has to his name, closing on top recruits is just not one of them.
no coffee for Beilein.