MBB Potential Rotation

Submitted by Tate on October 13th, 2016 at 11:26 AM

With Big Ten Media Day today and it being a bye week, I thought we could get some more basketball discussion going.

Thoughts on this years rotation?

This is what I think:

Comments

Bambi

October 13th, 2016 at 11:29 AM ^

I'd hope Simpson gets more time than 14 minutes a game. He's good enough to get more than that and playing Walton and MAAR that much over the course of the season is too much wear and tear.

Give Simpson some more minutes, Robinson/Watson more at the three, and Wilson a bit more at the 4 and that seems more accurate to me.

funkywolve

October 13th, 2016 at 5:28 PM ^

In the interview on here yesterday, Beilein talked about Simpson's ability to get by his man and get through tight spaces.  That was something this team lacked last year - the ability to beat someone on the perimeter to either create their own shot or draw the defensive rotation and free up open looks for someone else.  Having someone who can get consistent penetration into or close to the lane, could do wonders for ths offense.

TrueBlue2003

October 13th, 2016 at 6:47 PM ^

to 70% at PG and Simpson up to 30%? If Simpson is truly good enough, that'd be more than fine with me.

The overall numbers might turn out like you suggest since the non-conf will allow other guys to get more time, but I would think this is about right on for conference minutes.

MtP Michigan Man

October 13th, 2016 at 11:52 AM ^

I agree that you need more Teske time for some height and "beef".  Would also like to see Davis come off the bench for some energy and size.

If Wilson can earn time from the other skill players, so be it, but I don't see 45%. 

If we don't have a combo of Teske/Davis on floor 35-50% of the time - we are going to get eaten alive by teams with good big men...

rice4114

October 13th, 2016 at 1:56 PM ^

If the last ten years have taught us anything Teske/Davis/Mo/Donnal are splitting one position. Redshirt the worst of Davis/Teske. Wish this wasnt true but unless Beilein changes his ways we wont see any of those 4 p;laying together for significant minutes. Im so confused why one of Chatman/Dawkins didnt stay and claim the 4 position??? Playing Maar/Walton/Robinson/Simpson/Irvin at the 1-3 positions seems like the perfect scenario. Im hoping Beilein suprises us all this season with no players sitting 20 minutes but ending the game with 3 fouls and a legit player of size playing the 4 for most of the game.

TrueBlue2003

October 14th, 2016 at 12:26 AM ^

he was terrible in that spot last year, worse than Robinson and two inches shorter.  He wanted to go play for his Dad where he'd be in the right spot at the 3. Not sure why Chatman left.  Thought he did have a chance at the 4.

TrueBlue2003

October 13th, 2016 at 6:51 PM ^

and Wagner will play at the same time?  If not, the "tall" lineup will be when Wilson is playing the 4.  Or I could maybe see Donnal play some 4 with Teske or Wagner, which could increase Teske's time above 10%, reduce Donnal's time at the 5 and replace some of Wilson's time at the 4 with Donnal.

ChiCityWolverine

October 13th, 2016 at 12:08 PM ^

Agreed on DJ Wilson. Just don't think he's good. Other than some natural shot blocking ability because of his length, I haven't seen any part of his game that is obviously B1G caliber. As ever, I'd love to be proven wrong and for him to be a late bloomer, but it's getting late early for him if he doesn't take a big leap this season. 

TrueBlue2003

October 13th, 2016 at 6:56 PM ^

while I do think he has looked shaky, he also has the best combination of length, athleticism and a nice shooting touch on the team.  If he does take that leap and surprises us, I think that's the best chance for the team to make a leap into top 4 seed territory.  We need a huge upgrade on defense so the ideal scenario is Wilson is a beast with enough of a shooting threat to improve the defense without an offensive downgrade while Robinson comes off the bench as instant offense.

oriental andrew

October 13th, 2016 at 12:32 PM ^

They brought in Billy Donlon, who is known as a defensive coach. I want to say that Beilein likened him to a "Defensive Coordinator" for the b-ball team. I'm hoping between his defensive emphasis and improved conditioning, we'll be able to better balance the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. 

CorkyCole

October 13th, 2016 at 12:06 PM ^

Basketball conversations are becoming borderline political nowadays (borderline lock-worthy). That being said, I like the starting five quite a lot if that involves Wagner.

Also, it would be nice if the Michigan community went out to support its team regardless of expectations or the record. I don't know how we expect all these 5* recruits to start showing up if we are filling the arena close to a Rutgers level of support. I understand Michigan is a football school, but it is clear fans expect Michigan to be at a Kansas or Duke level of basketball program yet we don't show up to support our team like a Kansas or Duke or Indiana level program when they're struggling (as far as attendance goes). Just thought I'd add that.

Excited for the season to start!

ijohnb

October 13th, 2016 at 12:07 PM ^

don't think attendance has really been that much of an issue.  Yeah, the stands are half full when we play Howard and Armstrong State, but that has been true all the way to the Fab Five days. Michigan basketball has really always started for most of the fans when football ends.  I think our attendance in BIG games and for good pre-conference match ups has been pretty stellar though.  The one-two punch of the Indiana/MSU blowouts last year did not do much to encourage fans to turn out though.  No question, it did take a hit toward the end of last year.

ChiCityWolverine

October 13th, 2016 at 12:27 PM ^

It's really easy to show up when Michigan State, Indiana, or Wisconsin comes to town. Other than major B1G games and if we draw a Duke/Arizona in nonconference, I'd say the environment in Crisler has been lacking. Sure, it was better during the 2012-14 stretch when we were pretty great on the court, but we should be at that standard always. I'll give you seven reasons our attendence is tepid (other than just poor play):

Howard, IUPUI, Mt. St. Mary's, Kennesaw State, Central Arkansas, Maryland-Eastern Shore, and Furman. 

Those are 7 of our 9 OOC opponents. As a student, I would probably have skipped half of those to study, play IM sports, or go out with friends. We need to stop with the Maryland-Eastern Shore's of the world and fill half of those uglier matchups with regional foes from the MAC or teams like Oakland and Detroit. That would be a boon for attendence as well as SOS. 

theytookourjobs

October 13th, 2016 at 12:09 PM ^

IMO the situation with the bball program is a less intense and obviously far far less painful version of what went on with football.  Once a program reaches a level of great success, nobody is prepared for it to end.  Beilein set his own bar very high.  Now that we aren't reaching that bar, people (myself included) aren't happy.  Hopefully we come out of it in glorious fashion the way we did with football, but obviously JB is not JH!

Space Coyote

October 13th, 2016 at 12:10 PM ^

I think he gets the most minutes at the 5, but that seems like a lot of minutes for a big. For reference, Donnal got 19.4 mpg last year. I think Donnal still has a solid role on the team, and Wagner probably plays closer to 50% than 60% (plus he's a foul prone player until proven otherwise in my mind). I think the FR play a bit more, and it's possible DJ gets some of his minutes at the 5 as well.

I'm just not sure I see Wilson getting 45% of available minutes either, probably closer to 30-35% is my guess. I think you see more rotation of the wings into that spot that Wilson getting that many minutes (with Irvin playing the 4 on defense when another Wing plays the 4 on offense).

ijohnb

October 13th, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^

just don't understand the Chatman transfer.  He was starting to be somewhat impactful offensively and we have minutes available in that spot.  I don't know what he thinks he will find at a lower level program that would be more beneficial than sticking it out here.  I understand Dawkins and Doyle, but I don't understand Chatman.

AA Forever

October 13th, 2016 at 1:37 PM ^

to show what he could do, and the competition for minutes was frankly not that fierce, given our injuries. He was never going to be a starting caliber contributor at the level we want to be, and he struggled to even do much off the bench.

NCBlue22

October 13th, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^

I suspect we'll see a lot more of Simpson at the 1 and Walton at the 2.  Walton fits the 2 more between them because he is probably best as a spot-up shooter / cutter type than top of the key facilitator.  My guess is that Simpson, Walton, and MAAR will take all the 1 and 2 minutes, with Watson a back-up wing.  

Also, I would lower Wilson and raise Robinson- I'll believe it when I see it with Wilson.

So, My guess:

1- Walton 40, Simpson 60

2- MAAR 60, Walton 40

Wing- Irvin 65, Watson 20, MAAR 15

Wing- Robinson 70, Wilson 20, Irvin 10

Post- Wagner 60, Donnal 30, Davis 10

Qmatic

October 13th, 2016 at 12:14 PM ^

God our 2014 recruiting class was such a bust. The only who has panned out to anything is the one that was taken the latest and much of this board was extremely wary about.

CorkyCole

October 13th, 2016 at 12:57 PM ^

Dawkins took a huge hit last year, especially coming off the bench. I have no idea what happened to him last year, but I seriously thought he was on the verge of blowing up after the 2014-15 season and become the next Caris LaVert type prospect (maybe not in style of play but in how he was a low-level recruit and turned into a high-level draft pick). Kid was playing so well at the end of his freshman year. Sophomore season was a huge disappointment. I know he's gone now, but I think his regression or lack of progression was very indicative of last year's overall disappoinments.

ReegsShannon

October 13th, 2016 at 12:31 PM ^

Ibi won't be playing the 2. Offensively atleast. Walton, Rahk and Simpson will probably play all the minutes at guard unless someone gets injured (in which case, Irvin will play minutes where he is the 2 on offense but 3/4 defensively). Once we get into real games, likely only one of Ibi/DJ will become the 8th guy in the rotation and they'll just play their corresponding forward

AA Forever

October 13th, 2016 at 1:34 PM ^

and garbage time player last year (and didn't show any indication of potential for more), while Donnal was a starter, and showed pretty decent productivity in the conference. Not sure on what basis other than wishful thinking you project Wilson getting more playing time this year.

Also don't see us redshirting either Teske or Davis, unless they get hurt. With only 11 scholarship players, we need everyone, even if they only play garbage time. Teske may be a little skinny, but you don't nail a guy who can contribute to the bench for a whole year just for the lack of 20-30 lbs. He almost certainly has more talent than Davis, and if there are any minutes to be had at the 5 after Wagner and Donnal, he will get them over Davis.

ReegsShannon

October 13th, 2016 at 3:05 PM ^

I'd disagree on Donnal's productivity. His defense was bad no matter the game, and he was usually bad offensively except for a few games where the guards would do a great job penetrating and were able to spoon-feed him easy buckets (like the Illinois game). His median numbers are much lower than his mean numbers, since his few good games were such enormous outliers.

AA Forever

October 13th, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^

He averaged 10.1 ppg in Big Ten play, in 25 mpg.  He had seven games in double figures, plus five more where he had 8 or 9 points, out of 18 total games.  How many other bigs under Beilien have done better?  Wilson was certainly nowhere close to that.

Only two games were above 20, and only 3 games below 6, so he had very few outliers in either direction.  His median scoring (8) is actually very close to his mean.  

Mr. Yost

October 13th, 2016 at 4:14 PM ^

Nice work

However, it's easier to do with minutes versus percentages...

You've got 100% at each position. There's no question some of those minutes/percentages you've devoted to the bigs will end up with the guards.

If you go by minutes you don't really have to stick with 40 minutes per position.