# Mathematical analysis: Michigan has a 81.45 percent chance of winning the NCAA tournament

Submitted by Butterfield on March 25th, 2013 at 6:47 PM

Michigan has an 81.45 percent chance of winning the 2013 National Championship.  Yes, you heard right - the maths prove it:

Michigan's record by City's first letter:

A (Ann Arbor, Auburn Hills):  19-1 (95 percent)

B (Brooklyn, Bloomington):  1-1 (50 percent)

C (Columbus, Champaign, Chicago):  2-2 (50 percent)

E (Evanston, East Lansing): 1-1 (50 percent)

M (Minneapolis, Madison):  1-1 (50 percent)

N (New York City): 2-0 (100 percent)

P (Peoria): 1-0 (100 percent)

S (State College):  0-1 (0 percent)

W (West Lafayette): 1-0 (100 Percent)

Now, the south regional will be hosted in Arlington, Texas - which, incidentally, starts with an A.  Therefore, Michigan has a 95 percent chance of winning each game, meaning they have a 90.25 (.95x.95) percent chance of winning the region and heading to the final four....in Atlanta, Georgia.  Atlanta, it also starts with an A.

The Wolverines will then have a 85.74 (.9025 x.95) percent chance of advancing to the title game and a 81.45 (.8574 x .95) percent chance of winning the National Title!

Hooray!  And even though it worked in '89, thank God the Final Four isn't in Seattle.  We'd have no shot based on these advanced statistics.   Take that, Mathlete!

Downvoters be damned, I'm not letting your collective lack of humor get me out of the happy zone.

Edited to add West Lafayette, somehow I forgot to add that to the list the first go around.

IncrediblySTIFF

Well I can't argue with basic arithmetic  -- Senator Francis J. Underwood

Brian

stay here, you're drunk and it's wonderful

French West Indian

...and the NIT has a lock on NYC.  How come the NCAA tournement is never in the Big Apple?   This is bullshit, but I still like our chances.

Butterfield

Agreed.  New York, New Orleans, or Portland would have assured Michigan of the title.....but alas, we'll have to just accept there is a 18.55 percent chance we don't win the NC.

jscbus

Obvious flaw here is you must use the state, not the city.

/?

NOLA Wolverine

This should replace Kenpom. Pitt at #8? They must've had an early shipment of Oberon over there.

NFG

I wonder how we will perform in Toronto and Ghana with UofT and Ghana U joining the B1G respectively.

bdsisme

Wouldn't the math actually be (19/20)*(20/21)*(21/22)*(22/23) = 82.6%?

jackrobert

As an English major (LSA '1993), I have a correction to your thread title, which should read: "Michigan has an 81.45 percent chance of winning the NCAA tournament."  But your maths look perfect to me--that's the important part.

WolvinLA2

No.  A team's city-letter-win-percentage is defined by "the winning percentage of all games with a particular beginning letter before March 25th of the current calendar year."

So, unfortunately, our 95% is locked in.  At least that's how I understand it.

WolvinLA2

It's a good thing we're in the South regional, otherwise we'd have no data to go on.

Beware the Otter

That doesn't sound right, but I don't know enough about maths to dispute him.

Trolling

Stats Guy:

Grumble grumble, correlation...hrmph, causation...

Me:

Hey stats guy, fuck yourself! I've been watching that feed from Spike to GRIII too many times to care about your "math"!!!!!!!!

B-Nut-GoBlue

Bravo.  This seems to makes too much sense for one to question

Guess its time to head to Vegas, with these numbers in hand those odds on Michigan reaching the Final Four and winning the whole thing look like easy money.

I will send you a thank you letter after I have all my winnings in hand from some exotic location.

Don

My chiropractor/phrenologist told me the bumps on my noggin mean Michigan has a 92.7% chance of winning.

NittanyFan

Considering their 1-0 regular season records in West Lafayette and Ann Arbor.

WolvinLA2