Math Help for Big Ten Champ Odds for UM

Submitted by Ziff72 on September 27th, 2011 at 10:12 AM

So I've been been saying Big Ten title for 2 years now.   I still feel good about that but have amended it to.. get to the Championship Game and have a punchers chance against Wisconsin.  I can at least hedge that bet. 

Stats was 20 years ago for me so I wanted enlist some help from you guys.   I have the approximate odds Michigan can win each game moving forward as listed from Vegas.   Can someone get me the odds on each win total.  Odds of 8-0 I have at 2%.  Can you guys get me the rest of the way?   I say 6-2 gets us to Indy.

Minn 95%

Pur 80%

NW 60%

MSU 40%

Iowa 60%

Ill 50%

Neb 50%

OSU 65%

Thanks for yor help.

Comments

BlockM

September 27th, 2011 at 10:15 AM ^

50% chance against Nebraska? I want some of whatever you're on. 65% against OSU is way high to me as well... you know they're getting the Tat 4 back right?

Booyah Brady

September 27th, 2011 at 11:16 AM ^

Aren't most of these numbers updated based on the betting that has taken place. Last year we were the number one team to not cover the spread. We have covered every game so far, so maybe better like our chances and have pushed the lines because they are beting for us to cover?  

Edit: I very well could be wrong all together.TFWIW 

Tater

September 27th, 2011 at 10:38 AM ^

Ohio might be getting 4/5ths of the tat5 back, but that one piece they are missing was pretty crucial.  Many of those freshmen and sophs Michigan had to play early who got pounded by Ohio are now upperclassmen, and most are at least 2-year starters.  The chronological factor will be enough to keep Michigan from getting pushed around this year.  

We really don't know how good this team is against better competition, but at least it is back up to the experience level of a top-notch team.  If Ohio's QB situation doesn't improve, they are not beating Michigan this year.

At the beginning of the year, I saw only two "auto-losses" on the schedule: ND and Nebraska.  Now, I'm not so sure even Nebraska is an auto-loss.  I want to see how they play against Sparty until I start Chicken Little-ing this season.  

AFAIC, there isn't a team on the schedule they can't beat, and they should be favored in every game except Nebraska and maybe Iowa.

Ziff72

September 27th, 2011 at 10:56 AM ^

MSU+3

NW -3

Iowa -3

Ill Pick

Neb +1( I gave us 50%)

OSU -4

I know no one wants to give Mich any credit but we're only underdogs in 2 games MSU and Neb and Neb is basically a push.

You guys need to realize this league is not good.   We can be the 2011 Tigers. Denard=Verlander

 

JohnnyBlue

September 27th, 2011 at 10:19 AM ^

I think we will know more after this week.  watching these 3 games will tell us how the big ten looks.  NW vs Ill, MSU vs Ohio Technical Institure, NEB vs Winc.  

 

Trebor

September 27th, 2011 at 10:36 AM ^

By my calculations (I didn't bother with the 3, 4, and 5 loss scenarios, because the combinatorics get too crazy for me to deal with unless I wrote a script to calculate it):

Undefeated - 1.78%

1 loss - 10.09%

2 loss - 23.75%

3-5 - I may do this later if I get a chance

6 loss - 2.29%

7 loss - 0.26%

8 loss - 0.01%