Lundari's New Bracket - Michigan #2 Seed in the Louisville Regional

Submitted by True Blue 9 on February 5th, 2019 at 10:02 AM

Can't believe it's less than 6 weeks to Selection Sunday already?! With that in mind, Joe Lunardi over at ESPN put up his latest bracket projection and he has slipped Michigan from a #1 seed to the #2 in the South Regional in Louisville, with the first two rounds being in Des Moines. Virginia would be the 1 seed on our side. 

One thing that stuck out to me, I'd sure love to avoid Marquette if possible. As of now, they would be our matchup in the Sweet Sixteen. They're a very, very good team. Other interesting note, MSU would play Loyola in the first round (lol yes please) but they'd be in Columbus. 

Yea yea, I know it's early and this stuff is pointless but I sure find it fun! Hoping for a big win tonight at Rutgers. 

Comments

drjaws

February 5th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^

will likely end up a 2-3 seed IMO as the closing stretch brutal.  I think M will lose a 2-3 more games and end up with 3-5 losses making them a solid 2 or high 3.

drjaws

February 5th, 2019 at 5:11 PM ^

I'd be surprised if Purdue loses more than 2 games the rest of the way ... they have a crap schedule remaining.  One tough game (@ MD) and the rest are mediocre to bad teams.  They could easily win out and finish the regular season with 2 conference losses.

Maison Bleue

February 5th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^

UM is overated? Then UNC, Villanova and Purdue must be MASSIVELY overated.

UM has lost two games, on the road, against tough in-conference opponents in kenpom’s top 25. Both of which had a stench of ref fuckery (especially Iowa). They have whooped on 3 kenpom top 20 teams (2 in the top 10) one of which on the road. I think they are ranked right about where they should be and maybe even a tad underrated.

Meanwhile MSU’s best win is at #22 Iowa and they have miserable home loss to an awful Indiana team. Sorry, MSU is the only overated team in the state of Michigan.

northernmich

February 5th, 2019 at 10:16 AM ^

Honestly I don’t care where we end up. We are gonna have to play multiple elite teams in the tournament to get where we want anyway. Bring on anyone, if we are as good as we think they are, they should rise to the challenge.

Great Cornholio

February 5th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^

Would love to see us as a 2 that close to home, potentially facing a 1 seed who, like us, has some offensive question marks. Although UVA seems to be playing with a massive chip on their shoulder after what happened last year.

#GodlovesaTerrier

HireWayne

February 5th, 2019 at 10:41 AM ^

It's insane how close Michigan and Sparty are.  Both 9-2 in conference, are -10 on the road tonight, 2 seeds on Lunardi's bracketology, and have 1 player on Wooden top 20 (Iggy, Cash).

Something's gotta give.  Shaping up to be an epic close to the conference season. 

saveferris

February 5th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^

Looking at the teams still in the hunt for the conference title, Michigan's path is the toughest, although Maryland's is a close 2nd in difficulty.  Meanwhile, we debate which team between us and MSU is going to come out on top and Purdue is just sitting there tied with both of us and with only one ranked opponent left on their schedule. 

Tied for first:

Michigan - 4 of 9 games at home.  Ranked opponents - Maryland (2), MSU (2), and Wisconsin

MSU - 5 of 9 games at home.  Ranked opponents - Michigan (2), Wisconsin

Purdue - 4 of 9 games at home.  Ranked opponents - Maryland

One game back:

Wisconsin - 4 of 9 games at home.  Ranked opponents - Michigan, MSU, Iowa

Two games back:

Maryland - 4 of 9 games at home.  Ranked opponents - Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan (2), Iowa

Regardless, we run the gauntlet of these last 5 weeks with only another loss or even two and we may earn our one seed back.

 

bronxblue

February 5th, 2019 at 10:48 AM ^

UM will be a 2 or 3 seed, and that is probably for the best.  UVa continuing to get any credence as a top seed astounds me.  Last year took the cake, but they've underperformed almost every year 

outsidethebox

February 5th, 2019 at 12:31 PM ^

If Virginia as a top seed astounds you then you are very easily astounded...or something much worse. I have not seen them play very often but to say that they do not have the elements to compete for an NC is just plain silly. When Michigan is playing well they have a very high ceiling. However, when Michigan plays poorly, their floor is very low. Here, VA's ceiling is at least as high but their floor is much higher than Michigan's.

Blues the ONE

February 5th, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^

9 games left on Michigan's regular season schedule plus the B1G tournament and we are talking about seeding in the NCAA tournament?  Lot's of ball to be played by us as well as everyone else to be getting worked up over any seeding. 

wahooverine

February 5th, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^

None really.  At least no deficiencies that other teams don't have including Michigan.  They have a similar team profile to Michigan - dominant defense, precise methodical offense with ultra turnover % - except they are actually great at 3pt shooting (#1 in ACC and #13 nationally). When they make their average amount of 3's they don't lose.  In their lone loss (at Duke 72-70) they went 3-17 from three.

You could argue they don't have a dominant post presence, but they play modern Beilein-style outside-in offensive basketball and aren't overly reliant on the three - they are middle of that pack in terms of 3pt attempts.  Their top two bigs are Teske-like great screen setters that are solid at finishing pick and roll looks when the guards don't drive or pull up.   Coming off the bench they have a 7 ft stretch five (Jay Huff) who's basically sophomore Moe Wagoner at this point. He been developing rapidly and should be fully weaponized by tourney time.

Past tourney luck notwithstanding, they are legit.  There about as good - statisically and record wise - as Michigan would be if Simpson and Matthews could both shoot 40%+ from three on relatively high usage.

CLord

February 5th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^

In-season rankings = useless hype.  We'll end up a #2 or 3 seed thanks to standard Big Ten home cooking @Wisconsin, @Iowa, @MSU, perhaps @MN and that's that.  We're better when the home cooking playing field gets balanced in the tourney anyway.

JBlitz1

February 5th, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^

I think a 2 seed would be an amazing accomplishment and would be happy with that that.  Seems to me the the 6-ish man rotation is catching with the fellas, they look tired and flat (shooting looks really flat).  Will be interesting to see if the young guys get more time the next 2 weeks, guys like DDJ, Castleton and Johns having more meaningful game time under their belt would be nice

k.o.k.Law

February 5th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^

too early?  yes

still fun, as I have a daughter living in Lexington, so would attend.

We saw Pitino's last game as Louisville coach in Indy, and the title game in Atlanta.

Soulfire21

February 5th, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^

We have a brutal stretch to close the season. Wisconsin, @Minnesota, @PSU, and then Maryland (2x) and MSU (2x). We can easily go 4-3/3-4 in that stretch (hopefully no worse).