Lundardi has us solidly in

Submitted by BigBlue02 on March 6th, 2011 at 12:40 AM

So Lunardi now has us into the field of 64 and has the Spartans taking our place (amongst some other changes) in his last 4 in. Thoughts about us going into the B10 tourney?

Personally I think we are in no matter what happens against Illinois, but I would much rather see us beat them (as I am sure all of us would).



March 6th, 2011 at 1:07 AM ^

I have us firmly in too.  But since neither Lundardi or I are on the selection committee it does not mean that much.  I think this was a big win for us though because people are thinking msu is in.  We just swept them.  Keep winning is the obvious answer every time though, does not leave much for discussion.   Great win tonight.


March 6th, 2011 at 2:27 AM ^

Lose on Friday, and then we're likely back to "The Last Four In" as of Friday night.

But then we'd have to watch the other tourneys and hope a combination "Last Four Out" teams going deep and not-in-at-large-contention teams stealing auto-bids from Tourney Locks don't push us off the Dance card.

I'd say we have a good shot if we lose to Illinois, but I'd rather not sweat it.


Leagues most likely to "steal" a spot

PAC 10 - haha
Atlantic 10
The Colonial (Semis 3/6: GeorgeMason vs VCU; Old Dominion vs Hofstra)
Conf USA
The Horizon  (Final Tues: Wisc-Milwaukee vs Butler)
MVC-maybe  (Final 3/6: Indiana St vs Missouri State)
WCC-maybe (Semis 3/6: Loyola Marymt v St Mary's; SanFran vs Gonzaga)

And, of course, there's always the possibility that a BCS also-ran might throw a bowling turkey of three upsets.


March 6th, 2011 at 8:49 AM ^

I don't think we are a "lock" after the MSU win by any means.  What if some craziness happens with tournaments?  His point is a decent one, actually.  I think that ONE win locks us in, but an argument could be made that only one BTT win still does not make us a mortal lock,


March 6th, 2011 at 3:15 PM ^

Definitioin of a lock: A team that is absolutely, without quesiton going to the tourney.

Teams in the Big Ten GUARENTEED of going to the Tourney: The Big Ten tourney champion. Technically speaking, that is the only way to be absolutely certain you are in.


March 6th, 2011 at 6:32 AM ^

if we at least take care of business on friday.  That way we are probably solidly enough in the tournament that it shouldn't matter if there is mass craziness in the rest of the conference tourneys.


March 6th, 2011 at 8:27 AM ^ considering how MBB has evolved over the course of the season. They're playing in sync with such confidence now. It's just a joy to watch!!




March 6th, 2011 at 11:20 AM ^

No. There are 4 automatic bids (Coppin State's) that play in 2 16/16 games for the right to be 16 seeds in the field of 64. Then, there are also 4 at-large teams that play in 2 12/12 games for the right to be 12 seeds.

Game 1: 16 seed vs. 16 seed.

Game 2: 16 seed vs. 16 seed.

Game 3: 12 seed vs. 12 seed.

Game 4: 12 seed vs. 12 seed.


March 6th, 2011 at 11:54 AM ^

at which point we'll be at the mercy of what happens in all the other conference tournaments. We could still get in if the conference favorites across the country do their job, but if there are a bunch of low-seed-upset conference champions, we could get pushed out very quickly.


March 6th, 2011 at 12:54 PM ^

Every time I look at the teams around us on the bubble I feel better and better about Michigan's chances.  Lunardi has Marquette in (not even in his bottom 8) with an 18-13 record and a 68 RPI (we're 53 right now).  He has Gonzaga solidly in with an RPI of 67.  He has Clemson in his last four before the last four along with us (we have the better RPI and the head to head win).  Richmond is also in that group with a slightly lower RPI than Michigan.  His last four has State (we win a head to head comparison there, I think, with the equivalent record and two wins, barring a big run from them in the conference tourney).  Virginia Tech and Colorado are in his last four with much lower RPI ratings than Michigan (66 and 76 respectively).  His last four out includes USC (69 RPI), Alabama (79), and Baylor (83).

I just see a whole lot of teams that fall off the bubble before Michigan does.  Seeing as how our worst case finish is a loss to a top-50 Illinois team on a neutral court, I'm pretty confident that we're getting in either way, though a win would lock it up, help us avoid a play-in game, and probably improve our seed a couple places.



March 6th, 2011 at 1:10 PM ^

Anybody headed down to Indy next weekend?  We need some vocal, visible support for these guys @ Conseco for the way they've played to finish the season.



March 6th, 2011 at 3:37 PM ^

As someone who never expected that this Michigan team would have more than ten wins at this time of the season and would not have been surprised to see the Wolverines finish no better than 8th in the Big Ten (as several pre-season reports predicted), I must applaud the work that John Beilein, his staff and the players on one of the least experienced NCAA Division One teams have done to achieve as much success as they have this season. Whether or not this team is invited to the NCAA Tournament next Sunday, there is no discounting the fact that they have over achieved and deserve great credit for their efforts. (I’m eating crow on blue corn tortillas.)

In recent seasons, I’ve discovered the advantage of following The Bracket Project during the three weeks before Selection Sunday when seed shifting and bid shifting become regular events, but the field gets closer to being finalized. This season could provide more seed shifting and bid shifting than in recent seasons because of both the relative parity in major college basketball and the addition of three teams to the field.

Now, as for what the Michigan men need to do to get that Big Dance invitation, beating Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament probably is essential. The top-rated bracketologists who’ve been predicting for at least five years, Bracketology 101, often have better commentary than Joe Lunardi. As of last night, B101 said, "It's hard to see Michigan getting left out if they beat Illinois in the Big Ten tourney."

As of this afternoon, The Bracket Matrix had only 13 Bracketologists with field projections listed as of today (Joe Lunardi excluded.)  Of those, only one had Michigan out of the NCAA field. Of the 78 Bracketologists on The Bracket Matrix, 56 now have the Wolverines in the field. That’s encouraging, but not necessarily evidence of a guaranteed bid for the Wolverines who might’ve been solidly in the field already had they not lost by two to the Illini on February 16 in Champaign.

While Lunardi receives the most publicity because of his relationship with ESPN, The Bracket Project has rankings for many of the supposed "experts" in predicting the final bracket and ranks Lunardi 23rd among bracketologists. The next week should be very interesting, and to paraphrase a famous movie line from 1950, "Fasten your seatbelts, we’re in for a bumpy ride."

Go Blue! Beat the Illini (67-65 in triple overtime would sound nice) and Make It Happen!