LSU loses to Florida

Submitted by Bambi on March 15th, 2019 at 3:05 PM

LSU was the highest 3 seed on BrackMatrix so with us being the lowest 2 this should help us in a quest for a top 2 seed.

Comments

ijohnb

March 15th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^

Texas Tech went down yesterday also.  I don't think Houston will pass up Michigan even if we lost tonight.  I think Purdue could pass Michigan if they 1) win head to head this weekend, or 2) Michigan loses tonight and Purdue wins the BTT.

After watching Duke last night, it is nearly imperative that we are a 2.  The selection committee would not able to pass up Michigan v. Duke in the Sweet 16 if we are a 3.  They will put us in their region even if we are the top 2.

And I don't want to say that I am scared of Zion Williamson, but I am absolutely terrified of Zion Williamson.

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^

Yes, I definitely think Houston would pass us in that case.  I think Michigan's cushion is basically one spot in conference tourney.  If Houston goes two spots further, they'll take the 2 seed (i.e. if M loses tonight in the quarters and Houston makes the AAC final or if M loses tomorrow in the semis and Houston wins the title).

ijohnb

March 15th, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^

I mean.... it would not really be an "Iggy matchup" with Zion.  It would be the entire Michigan defense trying to prevent him from hammer dunking all the time and breaking a backboard.

I agree though, I would love another chapter in the Duke v. Michigan saga, just not until at least the Elite 8.

mabrsu

March 16th, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^

Couldn't agree more.  That game stands out as one of the worst officiated games too.  Everyone was in foul trouble for terrible calls too cuz BG was a celebrity and a Long Beach State guy flipped him over his back like a suplex in the first round.  The refs spent the whole game protecting him.

FatGuyTouchdown

March 15th, 2019 at 6:11 PM ^

True, but Michigan matches up really well with Duke. Obviously having one of the best college players in the one and done era is a game changer, but Duke is one of the fastest teams in the country tempo wise, and Michigan is one of the slowest. Michigan's defense and tempo could really stymie Duke offensively and frustrate young players into taking bad shots early in the shot clock. Cam Reddish is a really poor shooter, and takes a lot of bad shots. RJ barrett takes a ton of shots as well and is very streaky in his efficiency, but he's gotten a lot better with Zion out, so well see if he can return to his old role. Michigan doesn't need to stop Zion, Michigan needs to let Reddish and Barrett stop Zion. 

FatGuyTouchdown

March 15th, 2019 at 6:48 PM ^

Zion is shooting 70% from the field. Since conference play started, he's shooting 37% from 3. Zion Is averaging 22-9-2-2-2 and is the most efficient player offensively in the country, leads the country win PER, EFG%, Points per 100 possessions, is in the top 10 in both offensive rating and defensive rating, is the best athlete in college basketball, sees the game at another level, and is the best player in the country. Everyone should be scared of Zion, even if they shouldn't be scared of Duke.

Bambi

March 15th, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^

Only 32 teams get autobids, most teams end up losing this week. If we win out we're a 2 but in the statistically likely case we don't as long as we do relatively equal or better in our tournament to the teams behind us we keep the 2. LSU and Texas Tech losing is a big help there and Houston is limited by their conference. Beating Purdue/winning tonight and them losing probably guarantees a 2.

M-GO-Beek

March 15th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^

Not really surprising.  Kids playing under the pressure of knowing the their coach is about to be fired, and feds are examining the program and any wins will likely be vacated later, that is a LOT of distraction. 

MNWolverine2

March 15th, 2019 at 3:34 PM ^

Quick Summary (IMO):

  • Lose tonight - 3 seed (2% chance we could drop to 4 but some weird stuff would need to happen like K-State winning the B12, Wisconsin winning the BTT, etc.)
  • Win tonight - 50% at a 2 seed
  • Beat Purdue: 90% chance at a 2 seed

Purdue will have a strong argument for a 2 if they beat us head to head in the BTT.  If they win the BTT, you have to give them a 2 as the regular season and BTT champs.

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2019 at 7:28 PM ^

Houston has the #4 NET ranking, a 5-2 quadrant 1 record (better win% than Michigan), and is undefeated in Q2-Q4.

Their predictive metrics aren't elite so it'll be interesting to see how the committee weighs the resume vs predictive because Houston has a borderline #1 seed "resume".  They could absolutely pass Michigan if M loses tonight and probably would pass M if M loses tomorrow as long as Houston wins the AAC.

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2019 at 4:55 PM ^

You would think that Michigan still has an outside shot at a 1 seed but the committee today said they're down to 7 teams with a chance at a 1 seed and Michigan was not on the list.

I would think if Duke beats UNC tonight the committee has to discount UNCs two wins against Zion-less Duke.  That their getting credit for beating a team that went 2-3 and was lucky to beat Wake Forest at home is criminal.  Add the fact that Michigan crushed UNC and I would have to think Michigan would pass them with a BTT title.

If a team not named UK or Tennessee wins the SEC, I'd think Michigan would pass both of them.

So then you're down to MSU.  Could you put Michigan ahead of MSU with a neutral court win despite the two reg season losses?  Dunno.

FatGuyTouchdown

March 15th, 2019 at 6:38 PM ^

First off, even without Zion, Duke is a top 15 team. So UNC blew out a top 15 team on the road. And then beat them pretty convincingly again. So no, they don't have to discount two really good UNC wins, because Zion is back now. The reason they went 2-3 without Zion, is because they played a great UNC team twice and played a very good VaTech team in Blacksburg. 

Michigan would only have a chance to pass UK and Tennessee if they both lost tonight, and even that's a stretch. But that's possible. 

And Michigan isn't passing Michigan State even if they beat them in the BTT. Michigan State absolutely pantsed and outclassed Michigan in the regular season, and a neutral site win aint changing that. Michigan has no shot at a one, and that's ok. 

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2019 at 7:50 PM ^

On Bark Torvik (which adjusts for opponent strength so it takes into account that UNC is good) Duke was the #26 team in the country during that 3-3 stretch (I was mistaken that it was 2-3).

And that's about exactly right.  They were lucky to beat a very bad Wake Forest team by 1 at home in addition to the three losses.  Without Zion, they were borderline top 25.  Completely different team without him and that shows in his on/off splits too.

Even if they were a top 15 team (which, again, they empirically were not), the difference between a top 15 team and one of the best teams in the kenpom era (which is what they are to the formulas and what the formulas assume they were when UNC beat them) that is a huge difference.

Those wins by UNC were not against an elite team, merely a good one.  Those wins should be considered as such.

 

FatGuyTouchdown

March 15th, 2019 at 6:19 PM ^

Just a heads up, there's really no such thing as a low 2, or a high 3. Being the highest 2 doesn't mean that you get the worst 1. And there's really no chance at a one seed anymore unfortunately, Both Virginia and the Winner of Duke/Carolina tonight will be basically guaranteed a one seed. The SEC will be guaranteed a one seed if Kentucky wins tonight, because it'll either be Kentucky, or Tennessee beating Kentucky and getting a one. Gonzaga probably won't drop, and even if they do fall off the one line, It'll be almost impossible to hop Michigan State even if Michigan were to beat them in the championship. 

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2019 at 4:24 PM ^

K-State and Wisconsin can't pass Michigan.  They're waayyyyy too far behind.

Whether Michigan could drop to a four seed depends on whether Purdue, FSU AND Kansas would ALL pass Michigan by winning their conference tourney's.  Highly unlikely that'd be enough for Kansas or Purdue though. FSU has the matchups if they beat UVA and Duke, but like, that requires them to beat UVA and Duke, good luck with that.

It ALSO would require the committee put LSU or Texas Tech ahead of Michigan which is highly, highly unlikely given their early exits in the quarters to inferior teams to Iowa.

I'd put that at more like 0.2% that Michigan gets a 4 seed with a loss tonight.

Perkis-Size Me

March 15th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^

Just for the love of god, keep us out of Duke's region. I'd rather be a 3 or a 4 seed and out of Duke's region than a 2 seed but in Duke's region. 

A healthy Zion Williamson is an absolutely horrifying prospect. 

FatGuyTouchdown

March 15th, 2019 at 6:27 PM ^

This is a horribly dumb take thats shared by a lot of people, and I don't get it. If Michigan gets a 2 in Duke's region, then they'd play them in the elite 8. They'd also get a 7/10 seed in the 2nd round, which is a lot easier of a task than a 5/6 seed. Would you rather play Wofford or TCU, or Marquette/Nevada?

If the goal of each tournament is to win a championship, then going farther against a path of least resistance is exponentially better than going with a tougher road just to avoid Duke. Michigan actually matches up very well with Duke, and I'd be a lot more nervous to play Virginia or Gonzaga. 

Jordan2323

March 15th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^

I don't care if we are a 2 or 3, I just do not want to be in a bracket with two blue bloods like we are on Lunardis bracket now. You dont want to be in a bracket with a Duke and UK or a NC and UK. Much rather be in with Gonzaga or Virginia. Someone mentioned the OK game awhile ago, the NCAA was clamoring for that NC/ OK matchup that year much like they would be with UK vs Zion. If its us as a 2 and Duke, NC or UK are a 1 I'm fine, just don't want to be in there with 2 blue bloods on opposite ends. Anyone who plays Duke is going to get screwed, the NCAA is slobbering to have Zion win a title

FatGuyTouchdown

March 15th, 2019 at 6:32 PM ^

Virginia is the best team in the country, and there's a zero point zero percent chance I want to see their defense in the tourney. Ty Jerome is a better defender than Cassius Winston, and with Kyle Guy, DeAndre Hunter, Ty Jerome, and a deep bench, I certainly don't think theres a shot we win a rock fight with them. Also, not sure why Gonzaga is always considered such a weak team. They beat Duke, Lost to UNC in UNC, and lost a close game to Tennessee at a neutral site. Then got upset by a solid Saint Mary's team. Gonzaga is really good.