Looking at next year's hoops roster, plus recruiting
A year ago everybody expected Trey Burke to leave early, and THJ was no big surprise. We sweated out Robinson and McGary.
Right now there are no obvious bets to head to the NBA. GRIII has made modest improvements in some stat categories and gone backwards in others. He still has high potential but isn't fulfilling it consistently.
I suppose Mitch may go because of his age but there is no buzz about him like there was after the tournament.
Stauskas and LeVert have improved, Stauskas going from very good to great and LeVert from a minor role player to an every-game starter leading the team in minutes, rebounds, and FT%. He's bascially first or second in almost every category and everything is on the rise. I still don't see either of them leaving for the NBA at this point.
That would mean a roster for the first time in ____? that was mostly upperclassmen and wouldn't rely on any freshmen or sophomores to start. Yes please.
Getting totally ahead of myself...after whiffing on a number of our wing targets in the 2014 class (though I like what I see from Chatman) I am concerned about the 2015 class. I think we need a point guard, wing, and big man. Sounds like we're in decent shape with the Jalens (Brunson and Coleman) but the rest of our guard/wing targets sound like Booker/Diop 2.0. We're aiming high with big man targets that all seem to be focusing elsewhere (midwesterners Diamond Stone, Carlton Bragg, Henry Ellenson plus a few southerners). Cheer me up please.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:07 AM ^
Cheer you up? If we take care of business, we are about to win the big ten.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:36 AM ^
By reading this, you would have no idea we are close to the 2nd B1G Championship in 3 years (and an inch from 3 for 30. While I'm not a fan of these "looking ahead" posts, he actually made some interesting points...then lost me completely with the "cheer me up" at the end. Dude, enjoy this season. These things won't happy every year.
February 28th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^
February 28th, 2014 at 11:10 AM ^
EVERYONE is coming back. I have that feeling.
PG - Walton, Spike
SG - LeVert,
SF - Stauskas
PF - GR3, Irvin
C - Mitch, Horford
Eight deep and add in Donnal coming off a redshirt. We are stacked in 2014-15.
2015-16 could get interesting if we lose Mitch, GR3, Stauskas and LeVert. Would definitely need Donnal, among others to step up by then.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:13 AM ^
If everyone comes back, we are over 1 scholarship for next year.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:17 AM ^
Sam Webb addressed that in a round-up this week. One option is to medical Austin Hatch (i.e. he would never see the floor).
If GRIII stays, he may end up losing his starting job to Irvin.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:30 AM ^
Yeah I don't think Zak is going to start at the 4, probably ever at UM. He's playing some spot duty there this year because that is where PT is available but with Donnal and Wilson on the roster he will most likely be the primary backup at both wing spots next year. As far as being over the limit, I'm pretty sure that will work itself out. As you mentioned Hatch might take a medical or another possibility I've heard mentioned was Beifeldt could possibly pay his own way for a year. I still think at least one person will leave after this year, most likely Stauskas in my opinion.
February 28th, 2014 at 6:53 PM ^
Because when you can start a guy who is just a 3-point shooter at power forward, you have to do it.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:25 AM ^
I am totally inspired by him but it seems a lot to expect him to contribute at a D-I level. He's only played in three games this season for his HS team. I would be thrilled to see him play for us but it seems unrealistic. Does anyone know how his scholarship would work if he didn't join the basketball team his first year? Could he be on a general scholarship (not counting against our 13) and then join the team in a later year? Does signing a LOI rule that out? I'm starting to feel a little like Tom Crean or Nick Saban, oy.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
If that happens I really have a feeling that Max Bielfeldt might leave because he is buried on the bench and would be next year with Donnal coming off the Redshirt. If he did I would not blame him at all.
Then like others have said the Austin hatch situation is uncertain.
February 28th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
February 28th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^
We need to replace Morford.
February 28th, 2014 at 1:11 PM ^
back next year, barring something unforseen.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:17 AM ^
but I think Mitch will be back, barring a return from surgery and another tremendous tourney run. GRIII will also return, imho. I'm not sure about Nik. A departure for the Association would not surprise me.
But honestly, I'm not concerned about Coach B with regard to recruiting... The man has earned my trust with his ability to evaluate talent, and our success so far this season, after making it to the Tournament Finals will certainly help.
Crack open a cold one and enjoy our run to the B1G Championship! GO BLUE!
February 28th, 2014 at 11:24 AM ^
For 2015, I think the main priorities should be a guy who can play the 2/3 and shoot, as well as a 4/5 guy. Walton, in my estimation, is unlikely to be an early NBA draft entrant, so we're set on PG until 2016. As such, I think we can wait til the 2016 class to take a PG, so there's no need to be desperate if our top 2015 PG prospects don't bite.
Predictions for 2015 class:
-Kennard is ideal for the 2/3 spot, but I have a feeling it'll end up being someone who's not heavily on our radar right now.
-I think we'll snag Ellenson for the 4/5 spot if the coaches really go after him, and I think they'll end up adding Boudreux too.
-As to a PG for 2015, I think they strike out with Brunson and bank it for 2016.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
With a bigger body in the middle (be it Doyle, Donnal, or someone else) a 6'7" PF like Boudreaux could excel. I do have unpleasant flashbacks of DeShawn Sims being forced to play center. Ellenson, Boudreaux, and a tallish guard would be great. Any gain for us that also means drinking other Big Ten milkshakes = gold.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^
I think Donnal is going to be really, really good. Like 2nd (possibly 1st) team All B1G by the end of his time here. He's got a mean streak, great court vision, he's a good inside/out shooter, and has solid athleticism. He's going to be perfect for this offense.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:43 AM ^
I'm fairly confident in saying UM will land Jalen Coleman. He is more of a combo guard but can certainly run the point and he is, as Stephen Bardo likes to say, "a shot creator".
February 28th, 2014 at 11:20 AM ^
I mean, we have a coach who has proven masterful with identifying and/or developing talent. Beilein has gotten in on guys like Burke, Hardaway, LeVert, Stauskas, and Robinson long before other experts and schools were excited about them.
If there is one thing I'm not worried about, it's the future of our basketball program. If there's another thing I'm not worried about, it's the present of our basketball program.
I wouldn't be concerned.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:31 AM ^
If we don't have a bunch of 4+ star guys committed early I wonder why.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:22 AM ^
February 28th, 2014 at 11:35 AM ^
February 28th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^
Ricky Roe!
February 28th, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^
"I think a white, blue chip athlete, like myself, deserves $25,000 and a tractor for my dad." I can't confirm if that's the exact quote and refuse to look it up.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:32 AM ^
February 28th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^
I think you're right. I'd bet Stauskus and GRIII leave, and McGary comes back.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
Stauskas is listed as the #17 prospect by Chris Mannix at SI. If he's got that kind of grade, he should probably go. Getting picked in the first round gets him 3 years of guaranteed money, plus two more team option years. He could come back and get into the back end of the lottery, but waiting a year for a jump of 5-6 places may not make sense financially.
He's not NBA ready defensively, but almost no college players are (NBA defensive systems are just much more complex).
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20140227/nba-draft-big-board-…
February 28th, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^
February 28th, 2014 at 12:13 PM ^
Read Zach Lowe on grantland. You'll learn an incredible amount about how defense in the NBA works and how much attention coaching staffs pay to defensive design and coordination.
February 28th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^
I think the whole "NBA teams don't play defense" is a lazy statement that is used far too often. The difference between college and the NBA is that a typical college team only has 1 or 2 guys that can knock down perimeter shots with a defender in their face while in the NBA almost every player on the court can make contested shots. Anyone that thinks there is no defense in the NBA I would urge you to watch the next Pacers game.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
I think if GRIII goes to the NBA before he learns to create his own shot and not dissapear from games, he won't last too long. That said, he probably would still get drafted by some GM who doesn't know better.
For Stauskas, I'm not sure what else he can gain from another year in college. He's not going to pick up new facets to his game that don't already exist.
LeVert to me looks like the highest NBA potential guy on the team, save McGary, but he'll hopefully be overlooked for another year.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:35 AM ^
We won't rely on Frosh, but we'll need Walton to start (I love Spike, but DW will be the man), Irvin may push for some starts even with everone back. With MM and Horford Donnal won't start, but we'll need his depth.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
Maybe saying "we won't be forced to start freshmen" would have been better.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
No one on this roster is NBA-ready. Stauskas has disappeared and is one-dimentional. Robinson? I'm willing to be The Guy who says: NOT GON' Do it. He has limited potential, and has maxed out. He needs fundamentals--but of course won't ever develop them if he leaves. The NBA has enough 6'6 guys who do nothing but dunk.
Stauskas is really defensible. We've seen enough of these guys in college to know they aren't going to make a big splash in the NBA unless the other teams forget about them and let them chuck up three-pointers all game long. Kyle Korver is having a nice career, but he's also 6'9 and can shoot over defenders.
February 28th, 2014 at 2:46 PM ^
February 28th, 2014 at 11:49 AM ^
February 28th, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^
February 28th, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^
2006:
Starters
Dion Harris SR
Jerret Smith SO
Lester Abrams SR*
Brent Petway SR
Courtney Simms SR
6th man Ronald Coleman JR
That team was a huge disapointment. Obviously next years team would have a different level of talent though.
February 28th, 2014 at 12:31 PM ^
The year before (2005-2006) was, to me, the biggest disappointment of the Amaker years. Horton + the lineup you just listed should have been an NCAA tourney team. And Graham Brown, too? And Chris Hunter? Yeah...2005-2006 was hugely disappointing.
February 28th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^
Because if there's one thing you count on Michigan Men to do, it's find something to worry about. Is the team bad? Fret. Is the team good? Fret about it not being good some time in the future.
February 28th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
I don't always worry about things over which I have zero control. But when I do, it's about future Michigan rosters.
Stay thirsty, my friends.
February 28th, 2014 at 12:03 PM ^
Jordan Morgan who is a 5th yr senior. With Horford's foul tendency and McGary's bad back, Center might be our weakest position.
February 28th, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^
There's a whole lot of basketball yet to be played before Nik needs to make a decision. Keep in mind that at this time last year, nobody was predicting the possibility of Mitch leaving early.
February 28th, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^
Nik, Glenn, and Mitch are all as good as gone as Burke and Hardaway were last year. Not that I wouldn't love for them to stay, but they made the decision last year they wanted to have one more year of "fun" before becoming professionals.
Next year's team is still going to be tremendously talented with a lineup of Walton, LeVert, Irvin, Donnal, and Horford. Not to mention a junior Albrecht and incoming freshmen Doyle and Chatman.
February 28th, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^
You get it. Mitch is not coming back - too much risk. I think he and Glenn want to go out together. Nik is definietely going, as he should.
February 28th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^
Mitch is coming off back surgery and not having played in months. Who knows how able he will even be to work out for teams in May and June. With those major question marks it is very likely he will not get a first round grade. At that point, returning another season ballances the injury risk with a huge potential reward of playing himself into the lottery.
Plus, this draft is supposed to be loaded. 2015, not so much.
February 28th, 2014 at 4:56 PM ^
February 28th, 2014 at 1:01 PM ^
from our on court success last year. Everyone said that 2015 would be the year that paid off, and it still may, but we sure haven't seen that yet. Beyond that, I really don't see anything to worry about. Assuming Mitch and Glenn come back next year we will be stacked.
If the worst happens 2 or 3 of the Big 3 go then hopefully they get drafted in the first round which only helps us on the recruiting trail in the future.
In other words, don't fret. We'd all love to get more 5 star recruits but things are trending up either way.
February 28th, 2014 at 1:06 PM ^
If we only lose 1 of Stauskas, McGary, and GRIII then we are probably a preseason top 5 team. We'd be looking at 2014-2015 like we did when Burke and Hardaway Jr. came back last year. These last 4-5 years of Michigan Basketball have been so great especially with the Detroit Pistons being down, it's reminded me how much I love basketball. It's a real testament to how good the Michigan Basketball program has the potential to be.
February 28th, 2014 at 1:15 PM ^
because we have no available scholarships. Unless someone leaves prior to exhausting their eligibility. Maybe some top recruits are waiting to commit as soon as there is an open spot.