Looking Back to 2017 to Preview Notre Dame
Notre Dame vs non cupcakes in 2017 per NCAA total offense / defense statistics. This doesn't take into account how good each team is at running or stopping the run etc, it's a general overview.
Vs Georgia
32 offense / 6 defense
Loss 19-20
At Michigan State
91 offense / 7 defense
Win 38-18
Vs Southern California
13 offense / 68 defense
Win 49-14
Vs North Carolina State
25 offense / 58 defense
Win 35-14
At Miami, FL
60 offense / 38 defense
Loss 8-41
Vs Navy
39 offense / 48 defense
Win 24-17
At Stanford
79 offense / 76 defense
Loss 20-38
Vs Louisiana State
54 offense / 12 defense
Win 21-17 (Citrus Bowl)
Takeways.
2-1 against top 12 defenses.
2 humiliating losses at the end of the regular season on the road vs mediocre/bad offenses and defenses.
Michigan
105 offense / 3 defense
Obvious assumptions:
Michigan’s defense will be as good if not better than last year.
Michigan’s offense will be better and should be able to rely on the run.
Notre Dame didn’t really go up against any great offenses other than USC, but their defense stinks and they were playing at home. They lost once at home but it was against the # 6 defense that UGA brought to town. Sound familiar?
I’m surprised the Miami and Stanford offenses were this weak. Miami had at least one defensive touchdown vs ND so their offense didn’t account for everything.
Sorry about the format.
Go Blue!
August 28th, 2018 at 9:41 PM ^
Michigan will beat Notre Dame on Saturday
August 28th, 2018 at 9:45 PM ^
I posted in another thread how that "vaunted" ND defense was ranked 44th last year. Yet, all the pundits keep talking about how tough they are on that side of the ball. I don't see it. The stats don't back it up. The results don't back it up. I fear not the Domers defense.
August 29th, 2018 at 4:23 AM ^
ND is right there with us on S&P+
August 29th, 2018 at 7:27 AM ^
Outside of the top 25 isn't exactly "right there with us", no.
August 29th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
According to this ND was tied for 46th:
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/2018/team/22
According to this ND was 20th:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef
Considering both lists I think ND's defense last year was good but not elite. Michigan's defense was elite last year and will be even better this year.
August 28th, 2018 at 10:01 PM ^
I hope we win and if we don't...Fuck you Warde Manuel for being a pussy and caving in to resuming this series on the road. There, i said it!
August 28th, 2018 at 10:13 PM ^
Jim Hackett was on the most recent Harbaugh podcast. I suggest listening to it, it might change your tune regarding this topic.
August 28th, 2018 at 11:23 PM ^
What did Hackett say about Manuel and ND scheduling?
August 29th, 2018 at 6:04 AM ^
Could you please elaborate on said topic? Thank you.
August 29th, 2018 at 9:56 AM ^
ND will play back to back in Ann Arbor at some point as part of this 4 game series.
August 29th, 2018 at 10:09 AM ^
No shit. Thanks for the info.
Now time for Michigan to flex their muscles regarding MSU having to play back-to-back games in Ann Arbor.
August 29th, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^
So all of the outrage on Manuel for scheduling ND is all for naught? I guess Manuel is a lot smarter than most people here because he recognized the imbalance of home schedule and rectified it. Harbaugh wanted ND back in and Manuel obliged while still fixing the schedule balance.
August 28th, 2018 at 10:08 PM ^
I still think playing Arkansas would have been cool and something different.
August 29th, 2018 at 4:56 AM ^
And an easier game. We've got more than enough difficult games this year
August 29th, 2018 at 10:23 AM ^
I went to school in Arkansas and was really looking forward to traveling to Fayetteville and The Big House with my Arkansas buddies. I was definitely disappointed when they canceled the 2 game series. We would absolutely smoke them at either place.
August 28th, 2018 at 10:15 PM ^
My assumption on your comment about Stanford and Miami having weak offenses is that you're being tricked by total yardage rankings. Stanford was 29th and Miami 36th in S&P+ offense rating. Not great by any means, but the total yardage being 79 and 60th can kind of be deceiving
August 28th, 2018 at 10:16 PM ^
Notre Dame shat the bed late in the year. Part of this was poor play by Wimbush and failure to adapt by our coaching staff. Another part of it was more mental. I think Notre Dame didn't really know how to respond to success. We got our ass kicked by Miami and never really recovered. We honestly didn't look good against LSU, save some late game heroics.
I don't think Notre Dame's defense was great last year, but I think they have pieces at every level that can compete at a very high level. If I had to guess, they should finish as a top 30 defense, but they won't be considered dominant.
I think you guys have to look at Michigan's defense a little more objectively. Are they good? Do they have the talent? Absolutely. However, you played 7 offenses that rank 99th and above in the NCAA. The 3 top 50 offenses you played against averaged 32 points per game when they played you. Again, part of that was your QB play was atrocious and put unnecessary pressure on the defense, but it is important to note that your defense did buckle against good offenses. Your defense was efficient from a yards per play perspective, but also extremely susceptible to the big play.
I think it is going to be a 28 - 24 kind of game. Big plays are going to define this game. I think if Patterson is able to protect the football and make a big play or two, I think you win. I think we've got to get a few turnovers and take advantage of a short field once or twice to take this one.
Either way, I'm going to the game with a few Michigan buddies and am looking forward to it.
P.S. Despite popular opinion on this board, we are kindly requesting no balls or taints in or around our faces on September 1st. Thank you.
August 28th, 2018 at 10:35 PM ^
This is good stuff, thanks for posting. I omitted the Michigan related stats because I figured most of us knew how anemic Michigan was when Higdon or Evans weren't running the ball. It took time to figure out what the bread and butter was.
QB was the only thing holding Michigan back last year and a stork dropped off a 5* on our doorstep. Confidence is a major factor here, everyone on the team knew they were playing with a hand tied behind their back with JOK and to a lesser extend Peters. The defense knew they could only do so much.
Anyways, let's hope for another classic on Saturday night. Go Blue!
August 28th, 2018 at 10:55 PM ^
I don't really agree with your opinion of the Wisconsin and OSU games that the Defense let up. OSU was at 24 when Okorn threw the INT that sealed the game (we had no timeouts and they ran for a touchdown instead of kneeling it).
Wisconsin was held to 24 points at home...thats hardly a knock against the D.
Penn State really stood on it's own last year, and it is the one shred of doubt I have about this defense.
August 28th, 2018 at 10:58 PM ^
Yeah, Wisconsin was a really good defensive performance. They were at like 200 total yards at home very late in the 3rd quarter before Peters got knocked out and the defense spent the remainder of the game on the field.
August 28th, 2018 at 11:05 PM ^
Those are fair points for sure. Like I said, the talent is definitely there, you've recruited and developed well. However, playing against such poor offenses kind of skews the statistics for the defense. For Notre Dame's sake, I guess I'm just hopeful that the hype is just that. As others have mentioned, we struggled against elite defenses.
August 29th, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^
playing against such poor offenses kind of skews the statistics for the defense.
To counter that, playing such poor offense because the QB can't complete a pass to save his life and/or turns the ball over a bunch and having so many 3 and outs against good defenses (MSU, Wiscy, PSU, & OSU) also skews the defensive numbers the other way. So, what would the defenses numbers be like against those teams if our offense was functional? I guess we don't know yet, but it's safe to assume it would have been better. There were so many occasions where the defense was playing great for 3/4 of the game and eventually broke after being put in so many difficult positions with field position, time of possession, and opportunities.
August 28th, 2018 at 11:34 PM ^
It should also be noted that the D only gave up 17 to Wisconsin since they had a punt return TD.
So basically PSU put up points, OSU did enough to outgun O’Korn, and Wisconsin put up nothing much. 3 top 50 putting up an avg 32 is so misleading when only 1 team even put up that much and the one of the 3 that wasn’t top 5-10 only got 17.
August 29th, 2018 at 8:23 AM ^
Regarding Penn State last year, I think that game exposed our aggressive defense's primary weakness. Namely, by playing an attacking style, it exposes us a bit to crossing routes and intermediate-length pass plays, which also was exhibited during the OSU game when they changed QBs and were able to connect on some of those.
Fortunately, NDs QB hasn't shown the ability to reliably connect on too many of those, at least historically.
Should be a very interesting game. I still think we manage to overcome slanted officiating and walk out of South Bend with a narrow victory.
August 29th, 2018 at 9:31 AM ^
I agree that was a weakness last year. They could go 4-5 wide and it would require a LB or Safety to cover a slot. McCray was not fast enough to do this for us. When we put a safety there, we did ok, but very often, the QB would put the ball in the vicinity of where it needed to be and the safety wasn't able to defend like a CB.
This defense is better equipped to deal with such a situation for 2 reasons. First, McCray is being replaced by much more athletic players. We obviously lose a lot on every other play, but we basically got to choose his replacement from 3-4 players waiting in the wings and what we lose from a senior leader can be accounted for elsewhere.
Second, Ambry Thomas coming on allows us to go to bring 3 CB out on the field when a 3rd or 4th receiver enters the field (depending on the RB as a receiving threat). He doesn't even have to be the one working the slot as he can take an outside receiver and we can move our best CB over the slot. If the defense is looking at our 3rd CB as the matchup to attack, this forces them to hit a more difficult throw to the outside rather than a crossing route.
August 28th, 2018 at 10:55 PM ^
Our schedule was really, really strange last year. We played really bad teams and really good teams for the most part. It should be noted that the two teams that scored 30 points on us last year were both top 5 offenses according to FEI, not just top 50.
August 29th, 2018 at 1:55 AM ^
Our defense this year is a new animal. Irrelevant what happened last year as this years unit is pretty much all around better and more experienced.
David Long and Lavert Hill at CB. Hudson and Bush at LB. Gary and Winovich on the line. We have multiple studs at all levels of the D
This squad has potential to be the best defense in college football. This defense is why vegas is giving Michigan 4th highest odds of winning the whole thing
Youll see
August 29th, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^
So...whoever wins the TO margin, is able to convert on 3rd downs, gets off the field defensively on 3rd and medium/long, doesn't give up big plays, wins the special teams game, and can run the ball effectively will win the game just like the vast majority of close games? And, in other news water is wet. ;)
August 29th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
We will win if we score more points than them lol
August 28th, 2018 at 10:34 PM ^
I looked at the last years stats of ND opponents to see how they fared against good defenses and if run D/pass D mattered more. There didn't seem to be any correlation, but I was surprised to see how bad the Stanford and USC defenses were. Anyone remember when it seemed like a loss that Harbaugh couldn't hire Stanford's DC? And it's criminal that USC has such a bad defense considering the quality of recruits they get.
August 28th, 2018 at 10:35 PM ^
Im watching ND vs USC right now on youtube, man we have got to stop Winbush from running, he likes to tuck it and run, it looks like ND's main receivers and rb are no longer there, I dont know who they are replacing them with, I guess Dexter williams might play, but We need to contain Winbush. He can definitely hurt us with his feet.
August 28th, 2018 at 10:57 PM ^
His ability to run is why he is starting. However, in big games against top defenses, he really struggled to get out of the pocket and do damage with his legs. I actually like his arm - 49% completion percentage is rough. I forgot the stat completely, but if he completes an additional 2.3 completions a game, it puts him at like 63%. He can complete NFL type throws, the problem is the next one he throws is a duck into the ground. He completed at a 72% clip in high school in a similar spread offense. I think it is mostly between the ears with him.
There are rumors that Dexter Williams will be able to play, but I can't imagine that is very likely. All practices he's been 4th string. He averaged 9.3 yards a carry last year in limited touches and has a lot of big play potential. None of the other RB's really excite me. Tony Jones Jr. will get the start, but I don't see him moving the chains against the Michigan defense on a regular basis. Jafar Armstrong has gotten really good reviews out of camp, but he is a converted WR, more of a Theo Riddick type.
August 28th, 2018 at 10:58 PM ^
One thing to factor in is USC had the 55th ranked defense last year according to S&P+. Their pass defense was good, ranked 9th, but their run defense was 47th. So the way to beat them was on the ground and NDs WRs were likely well covered.
August 28th, 2018 at 11:02 PM ^
Also USC had some bad turnovers, ND was +3 and had zero themselves. So we need to take care of the ball too.
August 29th, 2018 at 2:17 AM ^
Bush and Hudson will make sure Wimbush does not hurt us on the ground.
August 29th, 2018 at 1:49 AM ^
"Michigan’s defense will be as good if not better than last year."
Michigans defense will undoubtedly be the best Don Brown defense we've seen yet. No doubt
Once again it will all be decided by our offense and their ability to put up the necessary points to win. Last years offense couldn't even stay on the field long enough to give our defense a break. Its a miracle our D didn't suffer numerous injuries considering how often they were on the field
August 29th, 2018 at 8:48 AM ^
The thing I’m not sure of is how the world looks without a dominating DT on this line. We had Glasgow and Hurst for years constantly disrupting plays in the backfield. I just wonder how much we’ll notice the absence of an impact DT like that. Maybe someone will rise up and be comparable, but it seems likely that we notice the absence of a world crushing DT
August 29th, 2018 at 7:43 AM ^
They did kick the crap out of MSU on the road (our only common opponent).
August 29th, 2018 at 9:57 AM ^
They got up on them early and often.
MSU didn't do their rain dance before that game apparently.
August 29th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
Lewerke threw a pick 6 early and ND won the turnover battle 3-0. Again turnovers are going to be crucial. We need to shut Winbush down and their run game and turn them over. If we do that we have a really good chance to win.
August 29th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
Staee actually had some bad bounces go against them which never seems to happen when they play Michigan. I didn’t see that game when it was live but watched a replay to see how Staee looked. Yeah I know turnovers are part of the game but it seemed like Staee played ND about even and just couldn’t dig out of that early hole. I think the ND Defense scored two TD’s in the first quarter but I can’t remember for sure. Take out the bad bounces and I am not sure ND wins that game.