A look back at preseason expectations

Submitted by mejunglechop on October 31st, 2010 at 2:11 PM

from http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/last-chance-looks-stupid-predict-record-2010

Some people predicted the regular season and the bowl game, some predicted just the regular season, and some predicted both. To deal with that, I split predictions into ones that didn't account for bowl games and ones that did.  "8-4 + bowl win" type predictions were applied to both categories and so did predictions of 5-7 and below. That makes the losing predictions overrepresentative, but what can you do...

Exclusively regular season: 187 total

Record Predicted # of predictions % of whole
12-0 8 4.2
11-1 2 1.1
10-2 9 4.8
9-3 18 9.6
8-4 51 27.3
7-5 66 35.3
6-6 21 11.2
5-7 7 3.7
4-8 4 2.1
3-9 0 0

2-10

1 .5

1-11

0 0
0-12 0 0

Regular season + bowl (if 6+ wins): 168 total

Record Predicted # of predictions % of whole
13-0 8 4.8
12-1 3 1.8
11-2 9 5.4
10-3 20 11.9
9-4 43 25.6
8-5 57 33.9
7-6 11 6.5
6-7 5 3.0
5-7 7 4.2
4-8 4 2.4
3-9 0 0
2-10 1 .6
1-11 0 0
0-12 0 0

Things that interested me in Table 1:

  • 47% of posters predicted 8-4 or better.
  • About 62% of posters predicted either 7-5 or 8-4
  • 81% predicted at least 7-5

Thing from Table 2:

  • Very few people predicted bowl losses.
     

Notes: I counted 13-0 and 6-7 as also being predictions of 12-0 and 6-6, respectively. The only prediction I didn't count was gordie bell's 0-13 since it's mathematically impossible. I might have miscounted once or twice, but cut me some slack. I'm not Mathlete, people.

Comments

ATrain32

October 31st, 2010 at 2:41 PM ^

Peculiar part of looking at the data is that wins over Illinois and Purdue would put us on track to reach the 7-5 mark.  While those games are certainly not locks, the interesting part to me is that it is still possible to reach the range of wins where people thought the team would perform.  A bit of luck versus Wisconsin or a ridiculous amount of luck versus OSU and maybe 8-4 is possible.  It just seems unlikely, however it is still possible.

The fun part of the pre-season projections is the speculation.  Really we don't know what will happen or how it will go down.  That would include how the team would get to the 7-8 win total.  5-0 was fun even with a few concerns.  The last 3 suck with growing concerns.  Watching Iowa walk over MSU yesterday, I am reminded that part of college football's fun factor is that stuff happens sometimes that is hard to anticipate.  Did anyone see the Hawkeye romp happening?  I didn't but I have to admit... I loved it.  : D

Our team is writing their story as they go so to speak.  They started out better than I thought they would, and emotionally I chose to ramp up my expectations some even if it wasn't rational for me to do so.  The sparkling 5-0 caused me to look past the play of the defense and I did not account for the mistakes on special teams and penalties that happened in the last 3 games.  I also didn't really see that the first five opponents would themselves have all sorts of issues.

The pain and disappointment in the last 3-4 weeks is part of the 'growth' process.  (i.e. you have to grow to get bigger and better).  While there are no garuantees, I'm in for the duration. The problem is I just don't know if they will win or not from here on out.  The PSU loss is disappointing, but it's one game.  While we can tell ouselves that we 'should have' won, fact is PSU played better and won.  (guess they didn't read the memo they were supposed to suck). Looking in the mirror today, I realize there is a game next weekend and games beyond.  I plan to 'HOLD FAST' and cheer the team on.  I may not like the way the story is unfolding at the moment, but the story is not complete yet either.  Go Blue!!

formerlyanonymous

October 31st, 2010 at 3:12 PM ^

Still hoping I'm wrong. If anything hoping that I had Purdue and Illinois flipped in my team by team predictions. At the time, I thought for sure win over Illini, lean toward loss to Purdue. Now thinking the other way around. Still hopeful for the latter.

blue note

October 31st, 2010 at 3:56 PM ^

I'm as beaten down as anybody by this point, but do people honestly believe we are going to lose to purdue? Illinois, sure, but Purdue just lost by 34... to Illinois.

They are 115th in the country in passing yards and 106th in scoring offense.

Even if the D does its usual thing, I'm still thinking thats a win and 6-6. Yay.

Magnum P.I.

October 31st, 2010 at 4:34 PM ^

How much would you bet that their QB, whoever they roll out there, has his best game as a starter? And comfortably?

The lesson from yesterday is that anybody in the Big Ten--anybody--can put up massive points against us. There is no such thing as a gimme. We are a mediocre-to-bad football team.

sum1valiant

October 31st, 2010 at 11:48 PM ^

Amazing may be a bit of a stretch, but they are 8th in total offense in the country, 9th in rushing, and 48th in passing.  This is through 3/4 of the season, so no small sample size.  Furthermore, this is probably the youngest offense amongst the top 20-25 in the country, although I have no numbers to back that up (nor the desire to find said numbers).  Like I said, amazing may be a stretch, but I'm pretty confident amazing isn't too far down the road.

funkywolve

November 1st, 2010 at 9:00 AM ^

Look real nice with the non-conference games factored in.  However, here's the numbers that interest me:

10 pts in the first half against PSU (down 28-10 at the half and 31-10 early second half)

7 points against Iowa in the first 3 quarters. (down 28-7 heading into the 4th)

10 pts in the first 3 quarters against MSU. (Down 31-10 heading into the 4th)

 

UM's offense didn't do a whole lot points wise in the last 3 games when the outcome was still in doubt.  It wasn't until the opponent had built a comfortable lead that UM's offense started to put points on the board.

bronxblue

October 31st, 2010 at 4:34 PM ^

Nice breakdown.  I am still not ready to count out the game against Illinois, and Purdue has been really bad this year so UM should have the benefit for the doubt for that game.  After that, Wiscy could have a bad game and OSU, well, that's probably a loss.  So 8-4/7-5 is still a distinct possibility.

AMazinBlue

October 31st, 2010 at 7:30 PM ^

I have no belief it will happen, but it's still possible.  After seeing porous our defense is, I am praying for 6-6 and a chance to show improvement. 

I had us beating MSU and PSU and losing to Iowa, Wisco and OSU.  At this point, Illinois is possible and Purdue is likely, other than that...

BlueGoM

October 31st, 2010 at 9:41 PM ^

At the start of the year I figured 7-5, and a bowl win, so 8-5, right about where most people seem to have thought UM was going to be. 

The offense is much better than where I expected it to be (4/120 total O).  The defense is way worse than I expected  (106/120 total D).

http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/rankingSummary?year=2010&org=418

Next chance for a win is Purdue, we won't beat Illinois unless we hang 40 on them, which will be difficult since they have a very good defense.  No way we're beating Wisconsin or OSU.

6-6 it is.  Hopefully an invite to a  bowl that we can win.  This team desperately needs the extra practice afforded to bowl teams.  I think 6-6 will get us to a bowl since well, we're Michigan, largest alumni base and all that.  Right?