A little Heisman smell-test on Pryor's numbers...

Submitted by myrtlebeachmai… on

Admitted bias given here.... but you take a look at these numbers:

Player A:  36/53 passing  419 yds  5 tds  1 int  and  24 rush  107 yds  1 td  thru 2 games with a 2-0 record

Player B:  29/52 passing  480 yds  4 tds  0 int  and  28 rush  130 yds  1 td thru 2 games with a 2-0 record

Who are they?  One is a Heisman "front-runner" and the other a 1st year QB on a talent deficient team.   A = 2009 Tate Forcier;   B = (obviously) 2010 Terelle Pryor

I just don't get the TP Heisman movement (obviously a part of some large scale Columbus men in sweater vests propaganda thing...).  I get that he's a worthwhile talent.  I don't get the Vince Young comparions, nor the idea he's good enough for Heisman.  The talent around him seems to make up for too many "rough" parts of his game. 

I'm not saying anyone in particular at Michigan is Heisman worthy (yet),  nor do I have some "Tate" agenda (just used as an example).  However, I don't get how TP is so highly thought of, when his numbers are NOT consistently (all year 2009 for example) any better than they are.

JT4104

September 15th, 2010 at 7:01 PM ^

Honestly, I think we all know the Heisman stopped being about individual players a long long time ago. It's all about is your team in title discussion and are you the star of that team?

Pryor is in the top 3 right now for 3 reasons......21-3 as a starter, his team is #2 in the country and he was the MVP of the previous Rose Bowl.

Reality is that no heisman frontrunner should be only completing 56% of his passes or running for a crap 4.6 per carry when you have his abilites. But, his team is good therefore he gets the cred.

Dont worry though if Ar-Kansas can somehow upset Bama in a few weeks then Mallett will be the new leadman

oakapple

September 15th, 2010 at 7:03 PM ^

Nobody is suggesting that Pryor would win the Heisman if he regularly posted the numbers you have posted above. What they're thinking of are the numbers he posted in the Rose Bowl. If he could post those numbers with reasonable regularity, then perhaps you are talking Heisman.

Pryor has immense physical gifts at his disposal. His bug-a-boo is inconsistency. If that remains the case, he will never win a Heisman, or frankly even come close. If he puts together a full season consistent with his best game, he certainly has a shot.

The argument, of course, is whether the Miami game was an anomaly, or if Pryor is going to be up and down like that all season. I have no idea, but as long as people are going to speculate about a seasonal award with 10 games left to play, it's a matter of guesswork.

Slippery Rock …

September 15th, 2010 at 7:11 PM ^

Well put, and I agree. Much like preseason top 25 rankings, rankings for an award that is given to the best college football player of a season that just started are little more than speculation.   That being said, I like the stat comparison that the OP posted.  Let's not forget how high we were on Tate after those games, though. 

myrtlebeachmai…

September 15th, 2010 at 7:20 PM ^

but seriously, when has TP EVER given anyone the impression that he can consistently deliver "those" kinds of numbers. 

I think you're overstating the impact of the bowl game.  One big year-end game should NOT put you in the driver's seat the following year.  You cannot tell me that everyone just ignored the whole body of work of 2009, when he did not show that kind of consistency. 

Not to mention fact that he IS very much still in the conversation after 2 games this year with these exact numbers.  Heck, even the ESPN Sportsnation poll today has him as the best BT QB (don't agree there either).

This is Michigan

September 15th, 2010 at 8:07 PM ^

Am I the only one that thinks, if you didn't watch the Rose bowl and only looked at his stats, they are not that impressive. Don't get me wrong, he was the MVP. He was very opportunistic and took control of that game.

 

Here are his stats

Passing: 23/37 (62%) 266 yards 2TD 1 INT

Rushing: 72 yards on 20 attempts.

Season averages

Pass attempts per game = 21.5  (+15.5 in Rose Bowl)

Pass yards per game = 152 yds/gm (+114)

Pass % per game = 56% (+6%)

Rush attempts per game = 11.8 (+8.2)

Rush yrds per game = 59 yds/game (+13)

 

He threw the ball 15 times more and ran the ball 8 times more than his season average. His inflated stats in the Rose Bowl was just merely Tressel relying on him more.

UofM Snowboarder

September 15th, 2010 at 7:06 PM ^

Really, 95% of the time, the Heisman goes to the on of the top few team's best (or at least most talked about) offensive player. That isn't to whom the award SHOULD be given, but that's how it happens. e.g. Ingram getting the award. He wasn't even the best back on the team, let alone the best player in FBS.

OSU is #2 in the country (and has been near that spot for all of Pryor's career). Therefore, he gets the hype.

It's not how it 'should' be, but it's how it is.

Tha Stunna

September 15th, 2010 at 8:12 PM ^

Who was so undeserving the past few years, other than Ingram (who is still a great player and I wish we had him)? 

'08: Bradford won, after putting up ridiculous stats.  I would have favored Colt McCoy, but Bradford was a fair choice. 

'07: Tebow won, and deserved it I think (unless you think Dixon or McFadden should have won) despite being on a 9-3 team because he singlehandedly carried his team's offense (foreshadowing?).

'06: Troy Smith.  When you didn't know about the bowl game, it was pretty obvious he deserved it.

So on and so forth.

JTGoBlue

September 15th, 2010 at 8:10 PM ^

Florida went 9-3 in the regular season when Tebow won the Heisman in 2007:

 

  Denard - 2010          
Rushing Attempts Yards Ave TD      
  57 455 8.0 3      
               
Passing Complete Attempts % Yards Y/A TD Int
  43 62 69.4 430 6.9 2 0
               
  Denard - Projected          
Rushing Attempts Yards Ave TD      
  342 2,730 8.0 18      
               
Passing Complete Attempts % Yards Y/A TD Int
  258 372 69.4% 2,580 6.9 12 0
               
  Tebow - 2007          
Rushing Attempts Yards Ave TD      
  194 838 4.3 22      
               
Passing Complete Attempts % Yards Y/A TD Int
  217 317 68.5% 3,132 9.9 29 6

I'm sure Denard won't keep up the torrid pace with rushing attempts, and will throw interceptions...but does he get more efficient as the year goes on, and as the supporting cast improves with him?  Could balance out, and if Michigan gets 9 wins...

Darth Tressel

September 15th, 2010 at 8:12 PM ^

I'm going to try and be as un-bias as I possibly can be as an OSU fan on a Michigan board. We're two games into the season. OSU has played and beat a ranked opponent at home and you've beaten a Big East team and a weak Notre Dame team. Drob has put up amazing numbers against lesser opponents and TP has put up decent numbers against a team ranked 12th in the country. That being said, we're coming into the 3rd week of college football and if it wasn't for ESPN or any of the other online sports sites, we wouldn't be talking Heisman, at least not this early in the year. Once again, both players are phenomenal athletes but you can't start talking about the best player in the nation until you have a larger body of work behind you. 

cargo

September 15th, 2010 at 8:28 PM ^

no one is even doing that comparison its more the fact that Pryor put average numbers against Marshall (17/25 247 3 tds  8 rushes for 17 yards.) and the same average numbers against Miami being that Marshall is a lesser team he should have put up way better numbers but didnt.  The Miami game like a typical OSU game was won by the defense and not the Offense.  Honestly if you look it up he is barely putting better numbers then Krenzel in the championship year and Krenzel had a way better running back to hand off to.

Darth Tressel

September 15th, 2010 at 8:46 PM ^

 

Pryor had those number by the end of the 3rd quarter. He might have played one series in the 4th but I can't remember. I do know that backups Kenny Guiton and Joe Bauserman were in the for at least two series. I think Guiton was in there for two series. Pryor might have ran the ball a total of three to four times against Marshall as well. Obviously they were trying to keep the offense extremely vanilla with Miami coming in the next week. Later Pryor and Cameron Hayward stated that both the offense and defense didn't run one single play that they're going to run next week (next week being Miami week).

Just like I stated before, there are a lot of factors coming into the first and second game of the year. OSU and Michigan both played teams they should and did wreck the first week of their schedule. The second week Michigan had a huge away rivalry game that could go either way. OSU had a revenge minded UM (that other one) team that has players on both side of the ball. Denard had a big day once again and made people in Ann Arbor happy with a big comeback. After being down 7-3, OSU's offense came into the game for a 2 play 80 yard drive and never looked back. 

Once Big Ten play starts and both teams get the better teams on the schedule under their belts, then we can talk about Heisman. 

BraveWolverine730

September 15th, 2010 at 9:09 PM ^

See here's my problem though, the Heisman is(supposed to be at least) for the best player in the entire country.  The best player in the entire country doesn't put up "decent" numbers against good teams(I'd even quibble that a below 50% completion percentage isn't even decent). Troy Smith was the best player in college football in 2006, he didn't put up "decent" numbers in his big games, he was spectacular.  I don't think Denard is going to win the Heisman when it's all said and done, but I don't really see Pryor, while a winner and a good QB, as having done anything to deserved being considered the best playeri in college football.

Not a Blue Fan

September 15th, 2010 at 10:10 PM ^

Uh, you ARE aware that Pryor is on pace to throw for 500 yards more than Troy Smith, throw fewer interceptions, nearly the same number of tds, rush for about 7 more tds, and rush for about 750 more yards, right? Troy was clutch, but Pryor's numbers (so far) are right on pace with Troys (other than completion percentage, obv.).

That being said, it is beyond retarded to even discuss the Heisman trophy before the end of October.

cargo

September 15th, 2010 at 11:35 PM ^

I'm going to say bullocks cause on pace means shit.  Through two games Smith without rushes (since I'm having a problem finding them) stats were

against NIU

18/25 297 3 tds

and against a veteran UT team with a redshirt freshman mcoy ( who only threw 1 interception compared to Harris's 4)

17/26 for 269 2 tds

and compare that to pryor

against Marshall

17/25 247 3 tds

against Miami

12/27  233 1 td

 

now if you take two games from smith he's on pace to beat himself im sure since his numbers are better then pryors.  So what im trying to say is extrapolating stats isnt going to do shit and I guarantee Pryor doesn't hit the passing numbers Smith hit I'll bet my membership on it.  Just like Robinson is not going to run for 2700 yards and pass for 2k.  Just cause someone is on pace for something doesn't mean you should use it as a main point.  Cause if extrapolating was how to win heisman orton would have won it a few years back since he was tearing apart shit teams haha.

Carcajous

September 16th, 2010 at 9:48 AM ^

This is the weakest approach to an argument you can take.  I'm neutral on the hype issue for Pryor (who cares, really?), but if you want to talk "pace" let's figure out what "pace" Denard Robinson is on.  Anyone care to do that and then make the case that Pryor, given his "pace" is in the same universe??

 

Didn't think so.

myrtlebeachmai…

September 15th, 2010 at 9:15 PM ^

just don't know why the MSM is buying it.  It's not even like he's a "great story"  i.e. Tebow. I wholeheartedly agree it's WAY too soon to seriously descuss Heisman, but if there's anybody that's going to be brought up, why TP??

DarthTressel,

I appreciate your "level-headedness", but to be fair... 1)  I didn't draw any comparison to Denard whatsoever    2)  I'm aware our 2 opponents at the moment are a combined "lesser pair" than yours, however I'm honestly not so sure you should hang your hat on that "ranked Miami" team - I think they'll be long gone by seasons' end and these first 2 opponents will look a lot more similar.  

sharkhunter

September 15th, 2010 at 9:17 PM ^

as he stated at the end of his B10 practice interview (may have been posted already). 

He also stated recently he wants to rush for over 1,000 yards.  

"My goal is still to get over 1,000 yards rushing," Pryor said. "That's my goal, to move the chains, and we could still possibly get that many yards.

"I'll always be able to run. That's who I am."

So, all this chatter about Denard, who is about half way to TP's rushing goal in 2 games, and the Heisman is messing up his plans.  

Tater

September 16th, 2010 at 12:05 AM ^

...Pryor is all hat and no cattle.  If he was a basketball player, Dickie V would have him on his "all-airport team."

Denard is faster, has tons more charisma, and is being used a lot more appropriately by his coach.  If Denard stays healthy and Tressel continues to run a paleolithic offense, Pryor will begin to wonder if an Escalade, golden handshakes, and "tutors" were worth choosing OSU over Michigan.

myrtlebeachmai…

September 16th, 2010 at 8:07 AM ^

The point is not that his numbers are making him look Heisman-like so far, and again, I agree it's way to early to judge anything this year.  However, I still haven't figured out what, through his long term performance, qualifies him to be in the discussion at all.

His ratings longer term (2010 followed by 2009):

21st in qb rating; last year 62nd

82nd in comp%; last year 85th

28th in pass yds; last year 74th

89th in QB rush yds; last year 77th

Forget the two games this year, it's just plain sad that he'd even be mentioned b/c of either last year's bowl game, or the fact that the whole OSU "team" has been 21-3 in his career.

Blue Ninja

September 16th, 2010 at 9:40 AM ^

The question is when does TP stop being all about potential and start being about spectacular? He was supposed to be Vince Young-like this year and so far is not looking anything close to said comparison. I think he has made some nice progress but its sad to see OSU fans excited about small amounts of progress about the guy who was supposed to come in and be THE dominant CFB player.

Not a Blue Fan

September 16th, 2010 at 10:38 AM ^

The question is when does TP stop being all about potential and start being about spectacular?

That's the $64,000 question.

Should you win the Heisman based on potential alone? Of course not. I'm just saying that's why he's on these watchlists (which, I reiterate, are as stupid as the polls this early in the season).