bluebots

March 12th, 2015 at 5:55 PM ^

I have to admit that I'm a bit less worried about this than I was before.  With our freshman coming on strong, I don't know that Caris will move the needle THAT much.  I think we're going to be way more dependent on the improvement of our bigs.

Tater

March 12th, 2015 at 6:29 PM ^

Is Caris really a first round pick?  That is the difference between being guaranteed at least $1.7 million and being guaranteed absolutely nothing.  Caris shouldn't make his decision until he is either certain or uncertain that he will be picked in the first round.  

I don't think his play this year warrants a place in the first round.  If he leaves, I will be rooting for him to get one of those 30 guaranteed contracts, but I really think he is going to be a borderline first round pick at best and should return to school.

dosleches

March 12th, 2015 at 6:00 PM ^

Getting Levert back would be a nice luxury, but think that Duncan Robinson and DJ Wilson's contributions (or lack thereof), will be much more important to next year's success! MAAR and Dawkins look like they are going to be good. Irvin is also rapidly improving.

JOHNNAVARREISMYHERO

March 12th, 2015 at 6:02 PM ^

We will be fine either way, but there is an incredible opportunity for him to have a showcase year and go out the right way.

The supporting cast wasn't ready yet and forced him to do too much earlier in the year.  

Now everything is set.

 

DCGrad

March 12th, 2015 at 6:11 PM ^

insure himself (literally) against injury and stay another year. I see him having the same problems as Glenn going into the league after this season.

DCGrad

March 13th, 2015 at 10:27 PM ^

routinely have insurance policies if they get injured before going pro (Lewan did I believe) but I'm not sure if draft stock/ranking plays a factor into that contract I would imagine it does. Even the differnce between being a top 5 pick and 6-10 is millions.

justingoblue

March 13th, 2015 at 10:36 PM ^

Under NCAA rules you can only accept financial assistance to make insurance premiums against injury if you're projected (by the respictive draft boards) to go in the first three rounds of the NFL or NHL drafts, or the first round of the NBA, WNBA or MLB drafts and then come back to school.

I don't know if there's anything available for non injury related draft stock tanking, but if that exists the player's family is footing the whole bill.

Mgodiscgolfer

March 12th, 2015 at 6:20 PM ^

Well, he has been here already a year or two right. I know this has to hurt college basketball. It seems like they are turning it into a semi pro league, as soon as you want to see a breakout year for one of your favorite players he's leaving for the pros. Yes I read the article, he did not say he was leaving but it seems so many do. I would not be suprised if he does. When a great player does stay the extra year or two people wonder whats wrong with him.

LSAClassOf2000

March 12th, 2015 at 6:25 PM ^

His decision also has pretty big implications for Michigan, as the Wolverines would likely be a top-25 team if he returns from his injury, given that just about everyone returns to the fold. With another year of development from he, Zak Irvin, Derrick Walton, and the big men inside like Ricky Doyle, Michigan could legitimately make some noise in 2016.

The selfish me would love to have LeVert back because the potential for leadership there plus having your depth this year pressed into extensive play due to injuries to both LeVert and Walton seems to me like it definitely translate into some legitimate noise indeed. His return - should he return - would be gigantic for this team, in my opinion. 

freejs

March 12th, 2015 at 6:49 PM ^

you, in particular, strike me as someone who would be interested in what I posted below. 

I'm trying to figure out where I might want to publish this thing - I think the analysis I'm working on will be eye-opening for a lot of people. 

Kingpin74

March 12th, 2015 at 6:28 PM ^

He can't even start running and cutting until April and the deadline is on April 27. The consensus right now is that he would go around 20th, but he could be heading into predraft camps at less than 100% and have to make his decision without knowing the full timeline of his recovery.

I wouldn't fault him for leaving, but I think he has a lot to gain and could be a top 10 pick next year if he stays. Most importantly, he could remove most of the risk of falling to the 2nd round and losing the guaranteed money.

ChiCityWolverine

March 12th, 2015 at 6:36 PM ^

Seniors (yes I know he'd be a young senior) need to be extremely impressive to be lottery picks. The reasonable outlook for him is to be a more secure 1st rounder and the guaranteed contract that comes with it.

That said, the opportunity to be the alpha dog of a Big Ten contender should have some appeal to return considering his injury situation.

freejs

March 12th, 2015 at 6:55 PM ^

believe me, you want to be guaranteed of being in the first round, and late first round is where a lot of seniors go. 

Or you want to be a 2nd round senior with a fully developed, NBA-ready game who will end up with a great 2nd and 3rd contract. 

Or the other categories I lay out below. 

The "you always want to start earning right away" guys have a massive flaw in their analyses. 

If you come out at the wrong time, you never get to the 3rd and 4th year of earning. 

Kind of messes up that career earning clock. 

I think people are flat-out crazy who don't think there's a danger that Caris falls out of the first round. 

People will be impressing in pre-draft stuff and moving up and Caris won't have played in half a year. 

I've met Caris' family multiple times - I can't begin to tell you what lovely people they are. So nice, intelligent, classy - just terrific people. I have legitimate concerns that it's not the right time for him to go. The most important thing is that Caris has a career that will set him and his family up comfortably for life.  

 

Generic MGoBlogger

March 12th, 2015 at 6:37 PM ^

Part of me is hoping he goes, but before you start throwing pitchforks at me, hear me out.  I believe this is the second time Caris has injured that same foot and had surgery on it in the past two seasons.  If this is any sort of recurring injury, his window to the next level might be shrinking.  As much as I hate the NBA, I just want all of our guys to be successful at whatever they do, even if that means Caris forgoing his senior season.  Don't get me wrong... I'd love to watch him next season and lead this team back to the NCAA Tourney, but at the same time, I'd be very happy for him to pursue his future head on.  Caris has a good head on him, and I hope whatever he does will benefit him in the long run.

freejs

March 12th, 2015 at 6:47 PM ^

I am in the process of a massive spreadsheet driven analysis of the draft from 2003-2014. 

Here's what I'm seeing - you better hope you are one of three things:

1) A first round pick

2) A former top 30-50 recruit or

3) A guy ready to compete day in, day out in the NBA from DAY ONE. 

And that 3rd category usually is made up of seniors drafted in the 2nd round. 

You know what so many of those guys have? Great careers

That cbssports article from last year was borderline malpractice. 

Yes, you can find your way onto a roster and kick around for a year or two, but it's the seven/eight year careers that bring you $11/12 million plus careers. 

If you're not in one of those three categories above, my analysis is showing it's very unlikely that your career will last more than a few years NBA-wise. 

First round picks get more time to develop. Guys who were former freak recruits keep getting looks from the NBA and kick around rosters much longer. Guys ready to compete from day one and contribute have 7, 8, 12 year careers and these are the second rounders who end up signing huge contracts down the road. 

The money from a few years in the NBA isn't bad. You make $600k pre-taxes/agent cut, $800k pre-taxes/agents, if things break right, $1.2 million pre-that stuff or just over $2 million if things really break right. That's all pre-agent cut, pre-taxes. The idea that the euro contracts are big is almost universally fantasy. Particularly with those economies destroyed. So once you're out of the NBA, you're looking at a job you enjoy and an alright salary ($100k-ish, usually) (many expenses covered though, but sometimes teams can't end up meeting their payroll). 

What you gave up is the chance to have a 7-12 year career, where you can pull down $15 million never resembling even a starter in the league. 

I don't get the people who love to beat the drum that early entry is always good - not only do I not get the fan logic, but my research is showing that they are wrong. 

And this doesn't even cover the early entries who don't get drafted. Better hope you were one of those past top 20-30 recruits, otherwise, kids get totally screwed. 

I've come across heartbreaking story after heartbreaking story of kids with so much promise who got bad advice and had "careers" that never even began. 

That doesn't apply to Caris, I would think. I'd be shocked if he wasn't drafted. But unless he's guaranteed first round, I really fear for his prospects with his still developing build and his age, and only two plus years of college experience. 

It's not so bad at all to be a 2nd round pick - IF you are ready to be a rotation player or damn close to it right out of the gate. 

Nitro

March 12th, 2015 at 7:29 PM ^

I hate to say it, but before he went down, I was somewhat disappointed in Levert's development this season.  He certainly has a lot of talent and athleticism, and can do a lot with it, but he also didn't seem to be making the best decisions with the basketball -- mainly, his shot selection wasn't all that great (and seemed to get worse as the season went on), and he was dribbling a little too much, particularly in trafficked areas.  I would have liked to have seen him look to create for his teammates more, since that was one thing this team really needed and he had more ability to provide than anyone else (the last two games have really been the first time this team has shown sustained offensive chemistry all season).  His (on-ball) defense was a bit of a letdown to me too -- he was biting and chasing too much instead of just staying in front of the jersey numbers.

alum96

March 12th, 2015 at 7:38 PM ^

The team would be better with him here next year. 

His history of foot injuries and draft projections (mid to late) would call for him to go.

Would love to have him back but I don't see it.

UnkleBuck

March 12th, 2015 at 7:43 PM ^

His comments in the article echo the same sentiments he told me 2 weeks ago.  I ran into him in the LSA building, and asked only about his rehab.  He indicated he was staying positive, but was unsure about next year.  Caris is a very polite and personable young man, and I wish him well in whatever decision he makes.

freejs

March 13th, 2015 at 2:43 AM ^

not a first round "grade." That isn't worth much.

What you really mean is if he has solid evidence that he is well within the first round or is essentially certain that a number of teams will draft him as soon as he's available. 

They hand out too many first round grades. 

If you're at the bottom of that lot, there's a real chance you end up in the second round and the calculations are very different at that point.