Latest ESPN Bracketology

Submitted by steve sharik on March 11th, 2013 at 12:07 PM

Lunardi has us as a #3 seed in a region facing #14 seed Montanta and possible match-ups with #6 VCU, #2 Miami (FL), and #1 Gonzaga.

Yes, please.

Too bad Lunardi is terrible at seeds and match-ups, b/c if that's the draw, we're going to the Final Four.



March 11th, 2013 at 12:37 PM ^

i actually realy like it when trey and spike are on the floor together. i think spike is great to have as hybrid pg-shooting guard. while trey is clearly superior, spike is entirely looking to distribute when he has the ball and is a solid shooter (nailed a clutch 3 in the corner). plus, it takes the pressure off burke from bringing the ball up the floor so much. i wish we could experiment more with that lineup, but it is a bit late to tinker with things i guess...


March 11th, 2013 at 2:08 PM ^

At first I hated the idea of Spike and Trey on the floor at the same time, because I figured if we were gonna trot out Spike, at least use his minutes to give Trey a rest. 

However, the system does run more smoothly, I think, because Trey gets more open looks when Spike drives.  I think the only downside is that Trey gets no rest on the offensive end when he doesn't have the ball in his hands.  Usually he can catch his breath a little bit if he's running the point, but with Spike running it, he's cutting and back screening and running all over the place.  I wonder what that does, if anything, to his stamina late in the game.


March 11th, 2013 at 12:11 PM ^

is good.  They might average 2.7 offensive rebounds per trip against us.  I like the rest of the bracket, but Miami is not a pushover by any stretch of the imagination.


March 11th, 2013 at 12:16 PM ^

Jerry Palm has us as the #2 and playing Vermont in Auburn Hills and then the winner of Temple / Notre Dame. Getting through that, we would then face whoever survived Oklahoma State / Boise State and Arizona / Montana over in Salt Lake City. 

Looking at Lunardi's bracket, I have to say that I prefer Jerry's road if it meant potentially avoiding VCU.


March 11th, 2013 at 12:16 PM ^

Wow if true the Gonzaga bracket went from "worst to first" on the tough-o-meter.  Anybody thinking we'd walk through that gauntlet of fire is crazy (no offense OP) and I honestly cannot think of a more terrrible match-up for us than Miami right now.  If you havent seen them picture MSU with more size and a few actual shooters.  They are beasts.

Michael Scarn

March 11th, 2013 at 12:23 PM ^

Yea I want no part of Miami (full disclosure, I went there for undergrad).  Several scorers, big time athletes, and size that they can bully with (Reggie Johnson is Chris Bryant sized (or maybe Wormley - someone tall and large) but has a soft touch and can finish).  Plus, perhaps the biggest disadvantage for Michigan is Miami's age - they're chalk full of veterans.


March 11th, 2013 at 12:36 PM ^

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Miami is the best option out of the #2 seeds Lunardi has here.  I wouldn't want to face OSU for obvious reasons (Craft), Kansas has the #5 Kenpom rated defense and has Withey, G'town has the #3 Kenpom rated defense and has 6'8" Big East player of the year Otto Porter.  Every time UM faces a top 10 defense (OSU, MSU, Wisco), the offense barely looks better than their horrendous defense.  While Miami still has a solid defense (#18 in Kenpom's D ratings), that's basically on par with Indiana (ranked #13) and we didn't struggle to score much against them either time.  I'm terrified of UM facing any team with an elite D.

But let's face it, UM is going to get an extremely tough matchup in a hypothetical chalk sweet 16 opponent regardless.


March 11th, 2013 at 12:40 PM ^

well, first off, we won't be playing games in the big ten, and we are undefeated against non-big ten teams. secondly, we are a pretty damn good neutral court team, going undefeated in our preseason tourneys. thirdly, i can pray that non-big ten refs actually follow the rulebook and are at least a tiny bit more consistent. so i think if we get the right draw, we could make a great run. 


March 11th, 2013 at 12:40 PM ^

with different brackets. Here's scouting report for every round

First Round: Would only lose if random no-name team gets on fire.

Second Round: Will have to handle pressure that solid mid major team brings, or contain size of raw big men that underperforming major conference team brings

Sweet 16: Will have to shoot lights out and use all of our energy and more to defend against elite size that every legitimate contender has (except for us, because we don't run a 2 big system).

Elite 8: Same as last

Final 4: Same as last

Champ: Same as last


March 11th, 2013 at 12:40 PM ^

Would love to be in that region in general. Other than the travel, the opponents are not quite as daunting as the stretch we have had over the last month or so. I think seeing some new jerseys on the opposing side could be refreshing and a slight confidence boosts to the team.

Question. What do you think has to happen in the BTT to remain a 3 seed or in that region? How high can we climb?

Drunk Uncle

March 11th, 2013 at 1:23 PM ^

I read this morning, I think on, that Michigan could get a #1 seed if they win the BTT.

It might be a stretch, but if Michigan does win the BTT it could potentially be against some impressive teams with high NCAA seedings: #4/#5 Wisky, #1 Indiana, #2 OSU.  


Perkis-Size Me

March 11th, 2013 at 1:01 PM ^

I'm curious as to what you've seen in the last month that convinces you we're a lock for the Final Four in any bracket. If you can't play defense and can't rebound well, you're not going to beat ANYONE in the tournament, whether its Duke or Northwestern Central Montana A&M.


March 11th, 2013 at 1:13 PM ^

Aside from the meltdow at the end of the game yesterday, thats the best UM has played in about a month-month and a half. If they play like that in the big ten tourney, I like our chances of bumping up to a #2 seed. I think #1 is completely out of the question at this point, although leaving KU at #2 after getting crushed this weekend is perplexing so who knows. Again, the defensive intensity and effort yesterday was the best its been all year by a lot. We missed quite a few bunnies (and FT's...argh!!!). So again, aside from the last few minutes, we went toe-to-toe with one of, if not the best, team in the country and had every opportunity to win. Keep things in perspective...

My name ... is Tim

March 11th, 2013 at 1:18 PM ^

I would be petrified of playing Miami in the Sweet 16. To me, they look like a much better team than Duke - who they killed at home and lost to by the slimmest of margins during Ryan Kelly's greatest game this year by a human. They are athletic and a matchup nightmare offensively - I would frankly rather be in a bracket with Indiana or Florida than Miami.


March 11th, 2013 at 1:47 PM ^

They're better than Duke but not by that much.  Like Duke, they're a little thin and get most of their contributions from five players.  Essentially they're reaping the benefits of having a senior-heavy lineup of good players.  Far too many close calls to bad teams in ACC play this year that could easily have been losses.  I think you're pumping them up too high; they're not that scary.


March 11th, 2013 at 2:11 PM ^

Massey has been posting odds tables based on Lunardi's brackets, though I think he's one bracket behind (this was the one before yesterday's games):

Louisville is the favorite at a little better than 5:1. Other odds:

  • Indiana 7.5:1
  • Duke 9:1
  • Gonzaga 9:1
  • Florida 9.5:1
  • Georgetown 18:1
  • Michigan 19:1
  • Kansas 24:1

Other B1G teams:

  • Ohio State 28:1
  • Michigan State 30:1
  • Wisconsin 250:1
  • Minnesota 500:1
  • Illinois 1000:1

I'd take those last three bets, to be honest. These tables always seem to underestimate the odds at the longshot end, probably because they assume the odds on individual games are uncorrelated.



March 11th, 2013 at 2:53 PM ^

Idk if I would want to see Burke's potential final game in Maize matched up against Larkin. That dude is Trey Burke on steroids in terms of speed getting to the basket. He might look like the far superior PG on the floor even though Burke's all around game is so polished.