Las Vegas releases 2018 CFB Win Totals

Submitted by NYC Fan3 on June 14th, 2018 at 11:08 AM

Michigan opens up at O/U 9 wins for the year.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/las-vegas-releases-2018-college-football-win-totals-for-all-129-fbs-teams/

Big Ten

  • Ohio State: 10.5 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
  • Wisconsin: 10 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
  • Penn State: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
  • Michigan: 9 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
  • Michigan State: 9 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
  • Iowa: 7.5 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
  • Minnesota: 6 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
  • Nebraska: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
  • Northwestern: 6 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
  • Purdue: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
  • Indiana: 5 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
  • Maryland: 4.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
  • Rutgers: 4 (Over -110, Under -110)
  • Illinois: 3.5 (Over EVEN, Under -120)

Comments

Kevin13

June 14th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^

O/U of 9 seems about right for us. Tough schedule. I would say anything above 9 wins and it will be a very successful season. Anything below 9 wins will be a disappointment for this team.

jabberwock

June 14th, 2018 at 9:04 PM ^

Yeah, beating up Air Force en route to 6th place in the Big !0 last year sure was a satisfying season  /s

The type of win DOES matter.  Purdue was the only win last year over a team that just barely squeaked above .500    Did that 8th win make up for MSU, Wisky, PSU, OSU, SC?  

In a world of 12-15 game seasons, 9, 10 wins can still be a disappointment.  Rivalries, bowls game, quality wins will always mean more to me than a number.

 

The Man Down T…

June 14th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^

Close calls on PSU and Wisconsin. For Wisconsin, that west is still weak and they get Nebraska early before the team will gel under Frost.  PSU has a rougher schedule.  Hard under on them.  MSU, OSU, UM then head over to play Wisconsin, Iowa.  I can see them losing to the East powers and splitting IA/WI.  Purdue has a lot of 50/50 games.  They will be a fun team to watch

DrMantisToboggan

June 14th, 2018 at 2:00 PM ^

Wisconsin returns nearly everyone on offense, but they lose a good chunk of their defense. I think 9 wins is right, but all 3 losses will be in-conference. 6-3 in conference is not super strong, and the West team they lose to out of Iowa and Purdue could very well match that mark and then have the head-to-head advantage, sending them to Indy. If Wisconsin goes 10-2 they are going back to Indy, but I think they're 9-3. Then it's just up to either Iowa or Purdue to match 6-3 in conference play.

TrueBlue2003

June 14th, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^

Closer than it seems for Purdue though.  They should be pretty good, but they have a tough schedule.  Two P5 opponents out of 3 in the nonconf schedule (although they do host both) and their conference schedule is pretty tough.  They only have four homes games and those four are against OSU, Iowa, Wisconsin and Northwestern.  Ouch.  They'll be fortunate to win two of those (cuz they're not beating OSU or Wisconsin). Then even if they win all three non conference games, they'd still need to win two road games to get to seven.

That's probably the right line. FPI projects them at 5.4-6.6 wins (not sure if that's a 75th/25th percentile projection) so the advanced metrics are right on this O/U.  Bill Connelly's S&P+ preview isn't out yet.

Guy Fawkes

June 14th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^

So what's the fan reaction if they're 9-3 and 3rd place in the East again? Good enough? Failure in my eyes, this team needs 11 to fend off the dogs. 

bronxblue

June 14th, 2018 at 2:06 PM ^

So it's a failure of a season, in year 4, but you're fine giving him some more time to...do what, exactly?  Do you think he'd suddenly get better in year 5, with another round of lazy writers concern trolling about his coaching abilities and nameless commenters calling him a "failure"?  

Hyperbole is fine in doses, but threads like these bring it out in buckets and it just douses every comment and waits for the hot takes to set it aflame.

rc15

June 14th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^

My reply was actually to Don, and I started writing it before yours was there. He would be a good choice, but would he come to Michigan? Would he leave a weak P5 conference to come coach in the hardest division in college football? To a school that would have had a coach not last more than 4 years since Carr? Who just fired the coach that was seen as being their savior?

If Stephen Ross is willing to pay Saban and Belichick $25 million each to come be co-HC, we should fire Harbaugh today. Personally, I don't think Michigan can do better than a HC that 1/2 of current NFL teams would fire their coach to have. No matter what his record is against rivals.

1VaBlue1

June 14th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^

Peterson isn't leaving the West Coast.  If he wanted to do that, the starting point would have been Boise.  He has no recruiting base to work with out here.  And he runs a very different offense that Bo ever ran - and we know what happened to the last (only) guy that tried to run something not from Bo's playbook...

Forget it.  Harbaugh is the coach here until he leaves of his own free will.  Anything short of that and we're re-hiring Brady Hoke.

Don

June 14th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^

You're inferring incorrectly if you think my question implied I believe Harbaugh should be fired after a 9-3. I do not. Nor would I if we go 8-4, which is my own guess for our season.

Harbaugh is not infallible or perfect, but he deserves—based on his record—a much, much longer leash than either RR or Hoke got.

You're right about Peterson. That's a fantasy that ain't happening, ever.

Catchafire

June 14th, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^

I'm not completely sold on the Peterson hype.  For one, his out of conference schedule with Washington has been extremely weak.  Having to play ND as we do will affect his progression. And two, the PAC isn't really a strong conference to begin with.  The league features Herm Edwards as a coach and long gone are the day of Oregon and USC being the top echelon teams. 

Der Alte

June 15th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^

The weeping, wailing, and teeth-gnashing over M’s record last year and its inability to beat regularly its principal rivals since Jim Harbaugh became coach seems to forget that in 3 years of coaching M football, Jim has not had a top-flight QB.

Jake Rudock was good, but remember he came to M because he lost his starting job at Iowa. Speight had his moments, but even before the Purdue injury questions arose about his ability to lead the team. O’Korn? --- well, the less said the better. When last fall WI LB Andy van Ginkle blindsided Brandon Peters in Madison after Peters had released the football and hit Peters so hard his head bounced off the turf a couple times (a cheap shot that wasn’t called --- to this day I know not why), the bowl game showed that Brandon never regained whatever form he had before his injury.

And there was a reason Peters didn’t get the ball earlier in the season: I think the term was “command of the huddle." Coach Jim didn’t think Peters had it, but eventually had no choice but to put him in the huddle and keep him there until he got knocked out of it.

Now, for the first time, Coach Jim has a 5-star QB who’s shown he has the moxie to take a team on his shoulders and win games. I was in the stands for Coach Jim’s entire M career, including the Hawaii game. Jim’s gutsy play inspired the entire offense, if not the entire team. All the players knew he was good; they knew he had the “right stuff,” and took their cue from him. Coach Jim knows what to look for in a QB --- maybe for the first time during his M coaching career, in Shea Patterson he’s found it.

Don’t judge Jim’s record as a coach until you see what he can do with a top-flight QB.

 

Alpaca

June 14th, 2018 at 11:58 AM ^

For me, we need to win MSU. OSU will be tough given that the game is in the toilet bowl but it's about damn time we beat their ass. Keep getting close to winning that game and some bullshit takes it away from us. No more excuses this year.  Hopefully we don't lose the easy ones. If we go 9-3 but beat MSU and OSU, that is fine by me. 

Guy Fawkes

June 14th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^

MSU is absolutely a must win game. However, in your scenario Mich would beat MSU and OSU but lose games like PSU, WISC, and ND. Would feel like a major missed opportunity of a season considering those 2 wins but 2 home losses. Not sure it gets the program to where we want. 

CLion

June 14th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^

I think they lose in A2 and lose one more of MSU,OSU, Wisconsin. Could obviously drop another but Pitt sucks and they should be close to 10 pt favorites vs Iowa at home I would think. They have three instant impact players coming in this season after a solid 2017 class. I'm still a little skeptical of Franklin still, but they should be well equipped to be in the conversation for the east title--at least as much as we are given their home-favored scheduled.

DrMantisToboggan

June 14th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^

Pitt doesn't have PSU's talent, obviously, but Pitt kept the game close last year by dominating time of possession, and this PSU team should be a little worse and this Pitt team a little better. Narduzzi, from his time under Mork, developed Dantonio's ability to keep games close against teams with far superior talent. That's how Pitt won the Miami game last year against a team that was probably slightly overrated, but still superior nonetheless. I doubt PSU runs away with that game.

 

I think 9.5 is a really tough (i.e. accurate) line for Penn State. I think 9-3, but could easily see 10-2, as well. I think they have a pretty hard ceiling at 10-2, though, based on their losses and their schedule. I can't see them winning more than 2 games out of Michigan, OSU, MSU, and Wisconsin.

DrMantisToboggan

June 14th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^

Pitt doesn't have PSU's talent, obviously, but Pitt kept the game close last year by dominating time of possession, and this PSU team should be a little worse and this Pitt team a little better. Narduzzi, from his time under Mork, developed Dantonio's ability to keep games close against teams with far superior talent. That's how Pitt won the Miami game last year against a team that was probably slightly overrated, but still superior nonetheless. I doubt PSU runs away with that game.

 

I think 9.5 is a really tough (i.e. accurate) line for Penn State. I think 9-3, but could easily see 10-2, as well. I think they have a pretty hard ceiling at 10-2, though, based on their losses and their schedule. I can't see them winning more than 2 games out of Michigan, OSU, MSU, and Wisconsin.

TryggerHappy

June 14th, 2018 at 11:29 AM ^

Seems fair with our schedule, the optimist in me takes the over for Big Blue. Betting a HARD over for Maryland; Piggy/Kasim should be able to light up the scoreboard and get them to 6-7 Wins. 

CLion

June 14th, 2018 at 11:29 AM ^

PSU's schedule is a joke. They do have to play Iowa and Wisconsin, but they get those two and MSU and OSU all at home. Tempted to say over for them.

I'm going to say under for OSU (10 wins). Over for us. No wager on MSU (9 wins).

LSAClassOf2000

June 14th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^

I could see 9 wins as a possibility, sure, but I cannot even begin to imagine the threads if indeed 9-3 was how the regular season panned out, wherever those three losses came from. 

It's not even worth doing a probability matrix right now from some place like Massey because 2017 data is still in those estimates obviously. I am kind of bummed about that when I see threads about odds lately.