KenPom ratings are out; M is 4th in B1G

Submitted by MaizeAndBlueWahoo on November 3rd, 2011 at 11:47 AM

KenPom's opening projection for the season has Michigan 4th in the B1G, MSU 5th and Ohio 1st, for those interested, and the B1G opens as the toughest conference in the land.  Worst team by far is Penn State, but they would be ahead of at least one other team in every other conference.

www.kenpom.com for the uninitiated.

Comments

jmblue

November 3rd, 2011 at 11:52 AM ^

Wow - five Big Ten teams in the top 24.  The league is going to be a bloodbath.  Hopefully this will be the season we move past NCAA bubble status and comfortably make it in the tourney.

AAB

November 3rd, 2011 at 11:52 AM ^

I'm not sure what to make of MSU this year.  Nix apparently has lost a lot of weight, which should help, and I expect Green to be all-Big 10, but so much of their season depends on guys who didn't do much last year (Payne, Appling to a lesser extent, since he was pretty solid as a frosh last year) or true freshmen (Dawson).  

On a side note, anyone know when Kenpom is going subscription only?

RationalMSUfan

November 3rd, 2011 at 12:08 PM ^

No clue what to expect out of the good guys (that's MSU) this year.  We will probably get bombed by Duke and UNC in the non-conference, as always, and then rally for the big 10 season. HOWEVER, the Big Ten is going to be TOUGH top to bottom.

 

Personally, I am just very happy to never have to watch Durrell Summers moap around anymore. I "like" the guys personalities on our team which makes it more fun to follow.

I still can't get too fired up for basketball, while football is on though.

WolvinLA2

November 3rd, 2011 at 1:57 PM ^

His behavior after the MSU game this year proved otherwise. His "Who's Obsessed with Who?" thread did it for me.

In my opinion, you can be a rival fan on another team's blog as long as you're behaving, and you'll get my respect. He lost mine a few weeks ago.

ijohnb

November 3rd, 2011 at 12:21 PM ^

Green to be the singular most overrated player I can remember watching in the Big Ten.  I think he is out of shape all the time, I think he is a defensive liability, I think he is non-factor late in games and I think he is terrified to play where he is most effective which is on the interior.  i don't think he really brings anything to the table, and I think he attempts to be a "player-coach" when he is not even really a player.

Have you guessed yet, not a fan of Green.  i was also underwhelemed by Payne, and I don't think that Nix can lose or gain enough weight to make him more or less effective inside, as he is simply ineffective, not due to weight, but due to not being good.

In sum, I don't think State is very good, i think they are more likely to end up in the NIT than NCAA, and I expect another season sweep at the hands of the Wolverines.

NOLA Wolverine

November 3rd, 2011 at 3:28 PM ^

If Payne can put it together on the conditioning side he could be really dangerous (Conditioning was the problem right? I remember hearing that. If not I don't know why he wasn't out more). He showed some flashes in his 4 minute spurts last year that looked pretty impressive. 

snoopblue

November 3rd, 2011 at 12:06 PM ^

Hey MaizeAndBlueWahoo, did you live at 716 Oakland when you were a student?

I know it sounds strange, but I lived there and when I moved in there was a beer pong table with your avatar in the middle. I assumed the person previous also had an affiliation with U of Virginia

maineandblue

November 3rd, 2011 at 1:29 PM ^

Wow, didn't realize that was happening! I live an hour away in Harrisonburg, and will have to figure out how to get tickets and make it to that game!

Where in VA are you? I've found one other guy in my area who's as obsessed with Michigan, and we've been watching games ever since. Would love to find more, or at least maybe meet up for an mgoblog tailgate/happy hour for the UVA game.

cleis

November 3rd, 2011 at 2:14 PM ^

I was actually just looking at tickets for this now.  I like in Arlington and am trying to figure out if it would be better to go with the Bus & Ticket package being offered by the DC Alum Association or head down on my own.  The game being on a Tuseday makes it more difficult to get there.  

BRCE

November 3rd, 2011 at 1:44 PM ^

Michigan below a Purdue squad that just lost Johnson and Moore? Uh .... no.

Not even remotely scared of Hummel's return. He was overrated to begin with and it's hard to imagine he'll even be the same player.

Indiana Blue

November 3rd, 2011 at 2:49 PM ^

the Maize and Blue derail Purdue this year and I do agree that Purdue losing Johnson and Moore does hurt them "big time".  However Hummel is the kind of player that actually makes everyone else on the floor a better player.   This is a unique characteristic that make Purdue better just because he is playing.  He can't take ove a game like Johnson or Moore ... but I would never say that he is overrated.

Go Blue!

Jeff

November 3rd, 2011 at 6:19 PM ^

First a question: How does KenPom determine his preseason rankings?  Is it solely based on returning minutes and last year's stats?

Second an observation:  KenPom has the only home loss against Ohio State.  While it would be annoying to get swept by OSU, that would be a pretty good season.  It looks like the closest win is a 55% chance against Wisconsin but we have a few close road losses that could be more easily flipped.  48% chance of victory at Indiana, 49% at Nebraska and a 50% chance of victory against Memphis in Hawaii.  Hopefully 2 of those 3 could turn into victories and no more than one "surprise" home loss 20-9 (11-9 or 10-8) record.  I'd take it.