just a hunch (Primetime Iowa GameC)
Now, this has absolutely no factual basis - just a hunch. I'm not blind to the fact that there are a number of reasons why Iowa might manhandle us this weekend, but consider this, just for a moment.
Prime Time. ABC Night Game in Iowa City. You know there's going to be a 'Yellow-Out'. Iowa's starting to get hyped up as a serious contender in the Big Ten. UM's coming off a rivalry loss and seems to have had their momentum derailed. THIS is the perfect time for Iowa to have their traditional collapse in front of a national audience (Think of that game a few years ago against OSU where they totally biffed it in a similar situation).
If it's a cool, perfect-weather night under the lights in Kinnick Stadium, I'm thinking this is the perfect night for Tate to have his finest game yet: likely a considerable under-dog, playing for the masses watching the game. I just get that feeling that he may have his defining opus in him this weekend. I'm not buying that the kid can keep the magic going all season, but this seems like the game he'd really get it up for.
Of course, as we just saw, the kid will need help, particularly from the O-line & receivers, but I think more exciting plays are in our near future. I think the crowd out there will only feed Tate's desire to lead this team to an upset.
I think it's going to be quite an exciting game, win or lose. If one thing's for certain, I really don't see this being a blowout either way. we'll have our chances.
A healthy receiving corps of Hemingway, Stonum, Mathews and Odoms needs to make plays. Hopefully the weather is perfect, and slippage/ball-handling won't be a huge issue.
Just for s&g, 28-27 UM in another thriller!
October 7th, 2009 at 5:50 AM ^
will shine at Iowa. The night atmosphere just sets him up to have a huge game especially on the national broadcast night game. If it's a nice weather night than I really like our chances to throw to the slot a lot and beat blitzes with screens, draws, and QB scrambles and to have some long drives to keep Iowa off the field. We should pound Minor and Brown quite a bit as well to tire them out and get a nice road victory and regain some confidence heading into the second half of the season. As for our defense if we can limit the number of times they have to go out on the field with no rest I think we can make up for a bad secondary. We just have to stop the run like always and hope the corners just keep improving so we can hope they can get off the field on 3rd and long.
October 7th, 2009 at 9:14 AM ^
"I think Tate will shine at Iowa."
A phrase comes to mind:
The stars come out at night.
October 7th, 2009 at 6:05 AM ^
About what? I'm not sure if you indicated that your "hunch" tells you that it WILL happen, just that it might or might not???
I love these types of posts. They're akin to the "I'm going out on a limb--think we might surprise some people this year"
But I have a hunch UM will win something like 28-17.
And I'll tell you what--if Tate has a "defining opus" any better than what we've already seen--holy shit--pencil him in for the Heisman right now. I honestly don't know how he can top what he's already done.
We need the usual "total team effort"--and I see it happening. The team has bounced back from adversity again and again and AGAIN--now they get to do it from a season's perspective as opposed to an in-game perspective, and I LIKE it!
I've loved the character of this team from the moment they kicked off against WMU and my hunch tells me that the Hawkeyes are going DOWN.
October 7th, 2009 at 8:02 AM ^
I must +1 you, King of Belch, for as much as it hurts me, you're right about Tate; we CAN'T ask him to give any more, he's already playing better than most senior 3-year starters.
October 7th, 2009 at 10:31 AM ^
I'm not asking any more of Tate - he gives you the great plays with the bad - I just think this kind of environment plays to his confidence and cockiness. I think he finds it in himself to improve upon what he's done already.
And by no means am I suggesting he's going to keep doing this all season - he's going to have a total clunker or 2 at some point, we all know that - I just think he gets it up big time for this game, and if some other position groups step it up with him, it could be a great night for the team and us.
October 7th, 2009 at 6:59 AM ^
Perhaps playing under the lights will inspire Forcier. It should remind him a bit of high school. Perhaps that will add a level of comfort for him?
October 7th, 2009 at 7:42 AM ^
The overnight low in Iowa City is 29*. I don't know how cold it's been in Michigan, but damn that's cold. Tate will probably feel right at home where the overnight low in SD is 60*. Just for shits and giggles, the overnight low here will be 74* saturday.
October 7th, 2009 at 9:14 AM ^
Any four-stars out there considering Iowa City for Saturday?
Point taken, however. I assume "here" means SD? Hopefully some of the work TF did in the spring got him a taste of chillier weather.
October 7th, 2009 at 10:58 AM ^
SD = San Diego
Here = Tampa
October 7th, 2009 at 7:01 AM ^
I'm just saying, it would be easy to think that the team could derail after last week's disappointment, when in fact, the stage could be set for us to come back even stronger. Tate seems to love the pressure situations, and as an underdog playing in a stadium under the lights on national tv, what a great opportunity to pull the upset. especially given Iowa's historic propensity to melt down under the weight of their own 'yellow-out'.
I do think it will happen. of course, if Iowa exploits the problems we've shown all year, then it will be a long game.
October 7th, 2009 at 7:42 AM ^
Homecoming for Iowa is cause for celebration. The only problem is that there is another team involved that isn't in the mood to celebrate with you. I never like a competitive, talented team as the homecoming opponent. As it relates, I hated seeing Iowa with Banks as our homecoming opponent in 2002. Not that Michigan is some dominant team, but I am sure the Hawkeyes would have rather have seen the Hoosiers or Northwestern, even Minnesota on their slate for their homecoming game. Often a victory is supposed to be assumed on Homecoming, I think it works to Michigan's advantage. Much as I felt the deck was stacked against M one week ago, I kind of like our hand going into this one...
October 7th, 2009 at 7:20 AM ^
I love watching this team, but my skill level isn't good enough to predict what they will and won't be able to do.
Brian is fond of poker. To use an analogy, Forcier is a true "wild card" who can greatly affect the game outcome. As suggested in the initial MSU post game analysis, that is a two-edged sword. Forcier will win some unexpected games, but will also (albeit, not single-handedly) lose some expected wins.
For us to win, whether against IA, or against PSU & OSU, sev. things need to happen:
1) OL must be better than last two weeks, both in:
A) Protecting our QB
B) creating running lanes for RB's
When Molk went down, our OL play deteriorated significantly. If the OL gives Tate a bit more time, and creates some room for RB's to run, our offense will be much more difficult to stop.
2) Receivers need to get over dropsies, and show ability to get open vs. a good secondary. Stonum, Roundtree, Odoms, Koger, and Hemingway are all very good. They need to improve in route running and spreading the field.
3) We need to find a way to get Denard into the game, with the ball in space. I don't know how, but it needs to happen. Maybe the occasional play with two QB's on the field? Part of the problem here is lack of QB depth, so this is the diciest of all propositions.
4) Eliminate more freshman QB mistakes. It has been discussed ad nauseum how the loss last week isn't Tate's fault. I'll agree. But even though the game was lost long before the OT, passes like the ill-advised one to Odoms near the end will kill us.
5) We need to play better, sooner. It isn't a good idea to wait until the final half of the 4th quarter to pull out the stops.
6) The defense needs to bend, not break. It has been established that the defense isn't the strength of the team. We get this. However, as seen last Saturday, if they can keep the other team from scoring at will, say within 17 points, we always have a chance.
If all these things happen, I think we have the chance to win against any of the remaining teams on the schedule, including Iowa.
October 7th, 2009 at 8:00 AM ^
Not to be a swooping Grammar Nazi, but I think you mean "whether against IO". IA is the abbreviation for Indiana, if I'm not mistaken.
October 7th, 2009 at 8:24 AM ^
a swooping Grammar Nazi, but an incorrect swooping Grammar Nazi. You are mistaken - Indiana is IN, Iowa is IA, Idaho is ID. IO = a Galilean moon orbiting Jupiter.
Attribution:
http://www.usps.com/ncsc/lookups/usps_abbreviations.html
October 7th, 2009 at 9:12 AM ^
...for reference to moons of Jupiter.
October 7th, 2009 at 8:24 AM ^
IN = Indiana
October 7th, 2009 at 7:51 AM ^
Since before the season started, I had a bad feeling about last week's game, and the hunch proved true. First road game, esp. for a freshman, etc. etc.
NOW, with that being said, I just have a good feeling about this game. Last week will go down as a lesson learned for a lot of young football players, teaching them that we're never out of the fight, that the show ain't over til Charlie Weis sings, that Tate can't feel that he has to do it all alone (and can't), AND how much stings to come so close and yet still go home empty handed.
Speaking of Tate, (I can't believe I'm about to say this) I think I agree with King of Belch. How much more can he give us?? If the team's gonna take their game to the next level he needs to have those around him step up and deliver. There's serious talent out there-- if Shaw steps up next year we could be looking at 2000-era productivity from the offense-- but drops, missed assignments, and other 'learning experiences' have made it difficult to be consistent. That's typical for a young team, but I agree, how much more can we ask of #5?
I think that in both the Indiana and Michigan State games, I think the opposing team's game plan focused on keeping our offense off the field. Look at the first quarter-- if you can keep Tate to a 3-&-out, it might be 8 or 9 minutes until he gets back on the field, and if you can score points around that 3-&-out, you can quickly put 10 up against Michigan and force 'em to change their own game plan. I look for Iowa to continue that trend and try to force UM to change the playcalling by keeping our boys off the field.
October 7th, 2009 at 7:59 AM ^
Tate can scramble around and throw a great pass, but he can't also open a hole on the OL, catch his own passes, sack the QB, and actually cover a bubble screen, regardless of how much Barwised he gets. Iowa 33, UM 17.
October 7th, 2009 at 8:47 AM ^
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, no doubt, but that just seems strange to me. The only team they have scored more than 27 points against is Iowa State who are.....well......not very good.
I am not sure their offense is all that good to be honest. With that said, our defense has looked pretty poor at times as well, but showed marked improvement IME last week.
I think that it will at least be a close game and I, too, have a good feeling about it. I see it being in the 20's, something like 28-24 UM.
Who really knows, but I hope my pick is right and yours isn't.....no offense.
October 7th, 2009 at 9:32 AM ^
I predicted MSU would win last week, and I would imagine most considered that a strange pick, too. There's no doubt that the loss of Molk has been huge, but regardless our OL is not very good right at the moment, and every indication is that Iowa's DL is better than Sparty's. When you have a defense that did a lousier job against Indiana than Akron did, at home, no less, you've got problems. Plus, maybe more importantly than anything else, it's on the road. If the game was in Ann Arbor, then it's a close, tight game going down to the wire. I think lots of people around here are blithely discounting the difficulty of playing in hostile stadiums for such a young team. Iowa is very probably way overrated at #13, but if Tate & Co. manage to win in Iowa City, there's no doubt it will have to be considered a monumental win for the team, and for RR at this stage in his Michigan career.
October 7th, 2009 at 11:03 AM ^
Before the season, I predicted a UM win at MSU. During the week, it just didn't feel right. I had a bad feeling about the MSU game. I actually have a pretty good feeling about the Iowa game though, just as I did for the ND game. I think UM comes out extremely focused and executes well on offense. The defense plays good enough to win.
October 7th, 2009 at 12:57 PM ^
in a night game sounds underrated to me at 13.
Anyone who isn't concerned about the rungame against a front seven better than State's is fooling themselves. We must open up the run by establishing the passing game first Saturday.
I do think Iowa will score 30. They're going to get the ball a lot solely b/c of the our fast paced offense. I only hope that it's not too many 3 and outs.
Prediction: A fake punt from inside our 20 yard line will not happen Saturday.
October 7th, 2009 at 8:27 AM ^
Michigan to take the ball if they win the toss. They need to get out there on the field.
Also, if Minor isn't practicing, I don't expect him to play much anymore. If he's still hurt, he should just sit this week and not even bother against Delaware State, and prepare for Penn State, because the staff didn't even want to run him on a 3rd and 1 in the third quarter (leading to Mesko's blunder). His missed assignments also didn't help things.
At this point, and in this game, the speed and varying looks of Carlos Brown, Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith would be of more benefit to Michigan than a gimpy Brandon Minor running against a power defense.
October 7th, 2009 at 8:36 AM ^
the passing game will open up the run game for Brown and Shaw.
October 7th, 2009 at 8:50 AM ^
I had a hunch that Michigan would blow out App State. I guess that's why they play the games. Hopefully it will be close enough to give Tate a chance to do his 4th quarter Fran Tarkenton thing again.
October 7th, 2009 at 9:21 AM ^
I would use Joe Montana as a comparison for fourth-quarter comebacks, and Tarkenton for scrambling. Tarkenton was a great scrambler, but didn't seem to be any better or worse in the fourth quarter than he was the rest of the game. He sure was fun to watch when he wasn't beating the Lions, though.
October 7th, 2009 at 8:57 AM ^
need to stick with the run regardless of the scoreboard. They were running stretch plays in the beginning, and never tested the middle of the defense last week. Then they stopped running altogether. If they give up and just pass all day, it will be a long game. This offense all hinges on the success of the read option. I hope we see the read dive, and the read counter this week. The stretch is a tricky play to block right.
October 7th, 2009 at 9:11 AM ^
To the OP's comments I believe this is what they call a trap game. To add to the trap I heard Chris Martin on BTN last night saying that he thinks IA is the best team in the Big Ten. The more they hype the Hawks the more I like our chance of winning.
October 7th, 2009 at 9:25 AM ^
I would go with the trap game mojo, but I'm sure that that way too close game against Ark St. last week got the attention of the Hawkeyes. Add to that their near opening loss and I doubt that Iowa will have a let down. Iowa's confidence
October 7th, 2009 at 9:20 AM ^
as long as we are just pulling shiat outta of our asses....I say the game is won by Jason Olessnavages who throws a td pass on a fake field goal attempt.
caw
October 7th, 2009 at 9:19 AM ^
Iowa does "black out" games, IIRC.
October 7th, 2009 at 11:49 AM ^
Which is mildly amusing, given the racial breakdown of the state.
I have black friends in Des Moines who refer to themselves as "sprinkles."
October 7th, 2009 at 9:39 AM ^
I think the fact that most feel we have a shot at all in this game is a testament to how far we've come. But Tate won't win or lose this game. He will do what he can but it will come down to whether or not our defense can get off the field and if we can get our running game going again.
October 7th, 2009 at 10:40 AM ^
UM is an 8-1/2 point underdog to Iowa on bodog.com. That is a pretty healthy margin. I think UM is going to keep it within 7 with all things (luck, turnovers) being equal. If we get a few lucky bounces and a couple turnovers there is a good chance we win the game. Either way, that spread is enticing.