Josh Helmholdt: Big News For a Pair of B1G Teams Tomorrow

Submitted by MichiganMan2424 on July 31st, 2012 at 12:00 AM Midwestern recruiting expert Josh Helmholdt just had a TomVH level cryptic tweet go out;

Josh Helmholdt @JoshHelmholdt

Hearing there could be some big news for a pair of #B1G teams tomorrow...

He then also tweeted saying it was good news.

If the mods feel like this is too vague to be worthy of a thread, go ahead and delete, but considering all the recruiting buzz around us recently, I wouldn't be surprised if this had something to do with Michigan.

And even if it's not and has to nothing to do with Michigan, I think anything dealing with big news regarding B1G teams should be of interest to us.



July 31st, 2012 at 10:37 AM ^

ok, I'm not saying I would rather have mcquay over any of our other db recruits, but when a team has a large haul at 1 position, it seems like one of the lower rated guys sees the writing on the wall and decommits.  Do you think that since we already have 4 cbs in the class that somebody might feel like he should look elsewhere for a team that doesnt have as many recuits at the same position as him.  Unless were looking at mcquay at safety or one of our other cbs as a safety, i havent been following them that closely.  I just really like our class and dont want to see anybody leave.  Also, anybody see that 247 updated they ranking system?  I like it.


July 31st, 2012 at 10:08 AM ^


 1) If it doesn’t have to do with a B1G team gaining, WITHOUT a loss to another B1G than it isn’t “good” news (for everyone), and

 2) If it doesn’t involve a highly desirous recruit (4* or greater), and preferably going to one of the higher tier competitive teams (M, OH, PSU, MSU, NE, WI, IA, PU) then it really isn’t “big”


July 31st, 2012 at 12:42 AM ^

Well, if it is recruiting, I would imagine it would have to do with at least one of the Big 2, as those appear to be the only schools that have great chances with any bigtime prospects.


July 31st, 2012 at 3:09 AM ^

It's all over here in So Cal where I live that he could decide by Tuesday, his whole family is with him here at SC and it's supposedly going very well. So who knows


July 31st, 2012 at 4:55 AM ^

that tweet has an 83% chance of having nothing to do with Michigan. Even if it happens to be about Michigan, I bet Hemboldt will tweet actual information worth bringing to the board instead of this worthless meta-tweet.


July 31st, 2012 at 6:55 AM ^

Actually, if we know for a fact that it's two different teams, there's a 17.42% (1/12 + 1/11) chance one of them is Michigan. Except evidently it's been leaked that it has nothing to do with Michigan, so probability has nothing to do with it any more.


July 31st, 2012 at 8:34 AM ^

Your calculated odds are close, but only by coincidence, as the methodology is incorrect. You can see this by using your method to calculate the odds of Michigan being mentioned if there were 8 unknown b1g teams with good news (your calculation would show 100%+ odds).

The correct calculation: 1 - (11/12 * 10/11) = 1/6 or 16.67%

Or 1 minus the probability that um is not mentioned.


July 31st, 2012 at 6:57 AM ^

What's up with all this recruting hyperventilation? (F5, F5)?  I love the class that Hoke is putting together (F5), but when, and if, and of them play as freshman, the sense of euphoria is going to  be replaced by the realization that they play like Freshman (F5).  How many Freshman have come in and light it up?

  1.  Rick Leach
  2. Anthony Carter
  3. Chan Henne/Mike Hart
  4. Charles Woodson

and probably a few others.  This is out of, what, 800+ freshman who came in since 1975. (5? F5!)  We would do well to remember that for every great play a rookie makes, you will see 10 instances of missed reads and confusion.




Mr Miggle

July 31st, 2012 at 9:04 AM ^

Of all the players who have lit it up at Michigan since 1975, how many were not part of a recruiting class? I can only think of Jordan Kovacs, but there are probably several more. I don't see why our excitement at landing recruits should be based on what's expected of them as freshmen.


July 31st, 2012 at 7:32 AM ^

If big news were coming for Michigan, I feel like we would have heard it first from Sam Webb or TomVH.  Helmholdt isn't exactly on the cutting edge anymore (if he ever was) when it comes to breaking Michigan news...

Space Coyote

July 31st, 2012 at 8:38 AM ^

While simultaneously bashing Tremendous at any chance you get. And I'm not the first to defend Tremendous either (I think some of his recruiting info is nice, beyond that I don't use him for much), but your insistance on supporting a paid recruiting site to the point of saying "no need to take a swipe at Helmholdt" for something that seems pretty valid while taking pot shots every chance you get at Tremendous is getting old. It's cool to have your opinion, but you're going about it a very odd and mostly irritating way.



July 31st, 2012 at 9:41 AM ^

Wow.  The desparation for real football news has reached its climax.

To summarize:  There's a 1 in 12 chance this vague tweet has anything to do with us.......yet it's thread worthy? 


July 31st, 2012 at 11:15 AM ^

1 in 6?   Both bits of good news are not for the same team.  Therefore, 2 teams of the 12 will get good news.  We are 1 of the 12, therefiore we have a 1 in 12 chance.

That said, I KNEW someone was going to debate me on the odds.  I should have gone with my instincts and inserted a caveat in my original post.


July 31st, 2012 at 5:12 PM ^


1 in 6?   Both bits of good news are not for the same team.  Therefore, 2 teams of the 12 will get good news.  We are 1 of the 12, therefiore we have a 1 in 12 chance.


Using this logic, if 12 teams were going to get good news, Michigan's shot is still 1 in 12? 1 in 6 is the correct number.