Jeff Goodman (espn): 2014 NBA mock draft 1.0

Submitted by BeatOSU52 on February 12th, 2014 at 1:00 PM

It's paywalled but interesting to see where some Michigan guys are here (link):  It is actually pretty interesting because , according to Goodman, this is based of the intel he's gathered from his connection with NBA executives, and not his opinion.

The draft order goes by where the standings would be today (in reverse order)

 

Notable players on list:  

1. Joel Embiid (Bucks)

2. Jabari Parker (76ers)

3. Andrew Wiggins (Magic)

6. Noah Vonleh (Celtics)

12. Nik Stauskas (T-Wolves)

16.  Gary Harris (Hawks)

24. Adreian Payne (Rockets)

27.  Glenn Robinson (Heat)

 

 

 

Comments

MgoRayO3313

February 12th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^

I hope he does not end up in Minnesota. The last decade or so they have been like the lions of the nba. Sometimes I forget Kevin Love existed until Taco Bell reminded me he is still floating around in an nba black hole for talent.

ClearEyesFullHart

February 12th, 2014 at 1:20 PM ^

There are still a whole bunch of games before the tournament.  Then there's the tournament.  This discussion is fun I suppose, but I highly doubt that list reflects reality when the draft actually comes.

Marley Nowell

February 12th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^

Nik appears be a little higher than I'd expect but scoring SGs are the rarest NBA commodity.  GRIII status looks to be about right. With his freak athleticism there is no way he falls out of the first round almost irreegardless of his skill level.  

ypsituckyboy

February 12th, 2014 at 1:28 PM ^

Skilled bigs are, by far, the rarest NBA commodity. That's why the top end of the lottery is generally occupied by guys that are 6'8"+.

If anything, I'd say that scoring SG's are the easiest find. SG's are a dime-a-dozen, if only because there is a larger pool of humans to choose from as you decrease the necessary size to play a given position in the NBA.

Spontaneous Co…

February 12th, 2014 at 2:20 PM ^

I too think GRIII stays in the first round.  But I do disagree with this continued reference to some otherworldy athleticism.  In comparison to most of us, absolutely, but in comparison to the population of the NBA, I don't think it's that special.  His vertical is elite, his overall athleticism is less than that.  He can't really get open, with or without the ball, so his ability to jump high is way over valued.  He often appears slow to me, both in terms of how he runs off the ball, and even more so when the ball is in his hands and he is trying to create something.  I guess his defense is better than Irvin, but I actually think the offense works better with Irvin in there.  It appears as though we are trying run sets to get Glenn opportunities to score, and he just can't do it, and it stagnates everything else  The best thing for this team is for Glenn to commit himself to being hustle guy/opportunistic scorer.  He would probably end up scoring more than he is now.

SanDiegoWolverine

February 12th, 2014 at 2:23 PM ^

GR3 is an average athlete by NBA shooting guard standards. He can jump high but can't quickly or explode in traffic. His first step is also merely good, not great. Maybe you haven't watched a lot of NBA lately but being able to catch a fast break alley-oop in the league is the norm. GR3's athleticism is about on par with Chandler Parsons.

Orlando BlueM

February 12th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^

I just can't see GR3 being a first round pick.  I understand that the NBA drafts on potential, but at some point production has to be a factor.  It seems like he gets a huge bump in draft stock just because of his name and some big dunks.  I would love to see him play like a first round guy, but I'm starting to think that time may never come.

I Like Burgers

February 12th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^

I've said this before, but GRIII needs to develop some sort of go to skill.  Guys like Stauskas have elite level shooting, Burke has excellent PG skills, Mitch has hustle and good hands.  Glenn has...good dunks.  Athleticism doesn't get you anywhere in the NBA because everyone is a freak athlete.  He needs to develop a shot, some rebouding, elite defending...anything really.

The NBA isn't a place where you develop skills.  Either you have something from the get go and get better at it, or you're buried on the bench and replaced by the next freak athlete in 1-2 seasons.

SanDiegoWolverine

February 12th, 2014 at 2:55 PM ^

He could barely catch the ball nonetheless execute a simple drop step in the post. within 4 years he became one of the best low post centers and passing big men in the league.  Paul George was also basically a raw athlete with nice form on his jumper and has developed his skills to become one of the best players in the league.  Kawhi Leonard was raw and couldn't shoot and now is an elite 3-point shooter and can pass and runt he pick-and-roll. 

In summary you don't know what the hell you are talking about but go ahead and keep listening to "truismisms" that peole like Dickie V and Bilas keep telling you and believing that they are true.

I Like Burgers

February 12th, 2014 at 2:56 PM ^

Kwame and Bynum were 7 footers and coordinated.  That's a valubale commodity in the NBA.  Those types of people don't grow on trees and will always be given second, third, and fourth chances in the NBA and will therefore have a chance to earn a ton of money.  

6' 6" tweeners are a dime a dozen and get one shot before NBA teams move on to someone else.

I Like Burgers

February 12th, 2014 at 3:38 PM ^

No way in hell man.  I mean it may just be a poor example of a rebounder, or you may have forgotten just how good Rodman was, but GRIII is and never will be anywhere close to Rodman.  Rodman was an absolute freak rebounder, and I doubt we ever see anyone like him again in the NBA.  GRIII is currently averaging 1 rebound for every 7 minutes he plays.  That's fourth best on the team behind McGary, Horford, and Morgan.  LeVert is slightly worse at one rebound every 7.5 minutes.

For his NBA career, Rodman grabbed one board every 2.4 minutes.  At his best, it was one per 2.1 minutes.  Not even your best 7 footers in the NBA come close to that.  DeAndre Jordan is having one of the better rebounding seasons in a while, and is only pulling them down at a 2.5 RPM rate.  Dwight Howard is at 2.8 RPM for his career.  

In college, Rodman averaged 15 boards a game -- GRIII is around 5 a game for his career.  So no offense, but taking GRIII where he's at now and expecting even a poor man's version of Rodman is absurd.

umumum

February 12th, 2014 at 1:54 PM ^

Are you really saying you can't see GRIII being a 1st round pick--meaning you don't think he actually will be and that the prognosticators are wrong--or are you simply subjectively saying you don't think he is good enough?  If the former, everything says you are wrong; if the latter, you could be right.

Orlando BlueM

February 12th, 2014 at 2:22 PM ^

Both, but mostly that I just don't think he is good enough.  He's not a great shooter, he doesn't finish well around the basket, he doesn't play great defense, he can't take over a game, he turns the ball over, he has no left hand, etc. If he continues to play this way, especially on bigger stages later in the season, I can see his draft stock aligning with his performance.

ypsituckyboy

February 12th, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^

GRIII can't go left right now and isn't awesome going right either. If you're playing the 3 in the NBA, you MUST be able to put the ball on the floor and go strong both ways. Nik took a leap in that department between last year and this year, and hopefully GRIII can as well.  

MGoBrewMom

February 12th, 2014 at 1:33 PM ^

Who projected that the Jazz were going to take a point guard?

I read that and immediately didn't take it seriously. I don't know a lot about this, but the mock drafts never play out the way they're predicted. And isn't Trey doing really well at pg for the Jazz? Am I wrong? or is he not the point?

Spontaneous Co…

February 12th, 2014 at 2:32 PM ^

Is it your position that if someone knowledgable in basketball were to look at GRIII's collective body of work over the past two years, that there would be something there than merits his selection as a first round pick, other than the fact that he can jump really high?  If so, please enlighten us, because I think many of us on the site would like to know what it is.  In fact, if you know what actual game skills Robinson has that are equivalent to NBA players, I bet John Beilein would like to know so he can figure out what the hell he can run for GRIII that amounts to something other than aimless and ineffective efforts to slowly dribble past his defender before he gives up and passes it someone else. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I like GRIII and he seems like a great young man.  I hope he stays and develops into a great player, but I don't know how anybody could say that his game performances live up to the first round hype that his pedigree and vertical leap have created.  Fortunately for him, we have seen the NBA draft on "ceiling" many times before, and as long as they do that, he'll probably stay in the first round.

Number 7

February 12th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^

1.  That would be two years in a row that the T-Wolves drafted a Michigan product in the early teens of the draft. 

2.  Say what you will about Kevin Love, but the real draw in Minny is the point guard.  It would be so fun to play with Rubio.

harryddunn

February 12th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^

I'm not arguing your point of perception, but I found this article interesting

http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/

"Of all the players in the NBA, Chris Paul had the highest “points added” at 3.48 per game over the 2012-13 season. This makes sense. Most people around the league would describe him as the best point guard in the game. Parker also ranks very well. By adding 1.5 points per game, he is 20th out of 327 players with a qualifying amount of possessions. Ricky Rubio had the lowest, at minus-3.33 points added per game."

SanDiegoWolverine

February 12th, 2014 at 2:45 PM ^

It only accounts for some things. Rubio its probably the best defender at his position in the league, also the wolves were the worst threepoint during team in the league last year. So every time Rubio passed it to a teammate for a three it was judged as a bad decision. Plus his adjusted plus minus was 1.95 which is pretty good.

LSAClassOf2000

February 12th, 2014 at 1:41 PM ^

Take it for what it is worth, of course, but DraftExpress has a scenario where Stauskas gets picked up at 19 by Boston, and in an odd stroke of hypothetical luck, Glenn Robinson, their 5th pick in the 2nd round, also goes to Boston. I thought that was an amusing scenario, though it seems rather unlikely. Of course, they have Boston getting Marcus Smart too. One thing I do note is that, as per tradition, the Knicks seem to have traded all their picks - could be wrong though. 

Michigan4Life

February 12th, 2014 at 4:38 PM ^

is basically a Hakeem Olajuwon clone. Not many 7' can move like him and showed progress in a short time at KU that he is highly sought after by NBA scouts.

People forget the Rockets took Hakeem over Jordan.  If you go by greatest player of all time, yes, the Rockets made a mistake of passing up MJ but they got a HOF and one of the best C of all time.  Hakeem was raw coming into Houston but developed into one of the best post man in the league.

Embiid can run, jump and can actually shoot.  He already showed good post moves and can block shots.  He's pretty much a lock to get picked #1 overall.

Spontaneous Co…

February 13th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^

That is a very apt comparison - but again, that uses the number 1 pick almost solely on potential.  I have no problem with drafting on potential.  I do have a problem with turning down a polished player who you already know, but for an injury, will have a productive NBA career for someone who "could" be Hakeem Jr.  I know what is going on and you are 100% right, I just disagree with taking him because he could develop into an all time great over someone like Parker.

turd ferguson

February 12th, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^

I really like Stauskas and I hope he tears up the NBA, but it's hard for me to see him getting drafted before Gary Harris.  Harris is a really well rounded player and I'd guess that he'll be the best NBA player to come through MSU during Izzo's time there.

I Like Burgers

February 12th, 2014 at 3:47 PM ^

Jason Richardson was a pretty solid pro.  Twelve seasons averaging 17 ppg and 5 rpg is nothing to sneeze at.  If Harris can do better than that, God bless him.  And as someone else mentioned, Zach Randolph has been really good too -- 17ppg and 9rpg for his career.

But I get your point.  Both of those guys played 12 years ago in college, and its been slim pickings for Spartan NBA talent since then.