Iowa favored by 6 1/2

Submitted by ChalmersE on November 17th, 2013 at 4:24 PM
Early line has Iowa up by a touchdown. Seems a bit high to me, but they may be factoring in Michigan's recent performances in Iowa City.

Comments

Ryno2317

November 17th, 2013 at 5:22 PM ^

You guys are nuts thinking OSU will beat us that bad. They have a pretty lame defense and we can score on them.  Our defense is actually pretty good and if the offense was even decent in a couple of our losses, the defense would be awesome.  If I see improvement in the running game like I did this week, I actually like us against OSU.  Call me crazy, however, I really think we can win . . .  let us remember Illinois put up 35 on them.  

MGoBlue96

November 17th, 2013 at 5:57 PM ^

gone three straight games scoring 13 or fewer points in regulation I don't see what gives you any confidence that this offense can score on anybody. O-line is still bad, Borges is thick headed, and Gardner has lost quite a bit of his confidence at this point. OSU's defense is still better than both NW's and Nebraska's, who both were able to shut down UM's offense.

I will agree the run game was slightly better this week, but the pass pro was still atrocious in picking up blitzes.In all likelyhood the game against OSU will get ugly.

 

wahooverine

November 17th, 2013 at 9:57 PM ^

OSU - Pride and solid defense will keep it competitive in the first half though we will be down by more than a td..  We will punt a lot via a combination of offensive ineptness and a consevative gameplan.  Old fashioned grit and a few wrinkle plays on offense will keep it from being a blow out.  In the end, we'll get ground down by Carlos Hyde, and the wheels will off in the mid 3rd quarter as Urban goes for the kill and the defense inevitably gives up the big play after  fighting valiantly with little offensive help.  We'll love by 24 or so, but it will be a gradually build to that margin.

Iowa - As usual, we are inept offensively, but make just enough plays to keep it a close low scoring affair until the end.  This time however, we aren;t as lucky  and time runs out before we can mount game winning drive.  10 - 1

Alternative universe Iowa -   The sweet taste of victory against NW envigorates an offense  newly energized by the thrill of power running with two young bruising backs now finding their groove in the college game.  Borges sees this during practice and composes a brilliant gameplan balancing power runs, short passing, play action and spreading the ball everywhere to Gallon, Funcess, Butt and even Chesson. Iowa tries the MSU and Nebraska defensive gameplan but Borges has finally adjusted.  We roll 27 - 13.  Borges is given credit for finally adapting his game plan, infuriating his detractors and giving hope to his supporters before another OSU stinker.  Most confusing season ever concludes.

 

96goblue00

November 17th, 2013 at 5:39 PM ^

The level of offensive impotence on this team is absolutely staggering. Other than that first drive, NU defense (just like just about everybody else) completely shut down our offense. It was so painful watching the offensive effort. We could not convert a 3rd down to save our life, Gardner was eating dirt, per usual, overthrowing/underthrowing receivers while on the run as he was getting blitzed, etc. etc.

I dumped the Dope

November 17th, 2013 at 5:43 PM ^

They play conservative and slow but they are big strong dudes. The Nfl loves their guys having drafted an insane number of them last year when they were 2fer.

I still have a bad taste from those 4 downs inside the 10 where we couldn't score as time expired on our last trip to Kinnick. I think a short field aids a slow team as there's less acreage to cover. As the temps get colder throws get harder and so this might favor Weisman. I like what I see from Green tho....he's dragging guys with him if he gets past the OL.

Lets go with Chesson fly long anytime we get 2nd and short. And a fake punt or FG to maintain our aggressive nature.

Do Hayden fry's pink visitor locker rooms still persist?

One Inch Woody…

November 17th, 2013 at 5:57 PM ^

Man, the play calling was definitely better against Northwestern, but still not nearly where we need to be. The three-step routes were, from what I recall, a lot of 10 yard curls and 5 yard outs and with Gardner not having enough time to move away from his first read, those are very dangerous as evidenced by the numerous almost-interceptions. If we don't at least threaten the bubble a couple times like against Northwestern, I don't see that inside zone play getting anything against this Iowa defense.

But then again, if the OL as a whole improves their execution some more, I think we'll see Gardner get comfortable again regardless of the play calling. Add on Gallon catching the damn ball and we'll generate SOME offense... enough to win.

WolverineMac

November 17th, 2013 at 6:01 PM ^

Is more like ND's with a tough front 7 but a secondary that can be had. If weather and play calling help we will exploit that secondary or at least have chances. Our defense has and will give us a chance.

alum96

November 17th, 2013 at 7:59 PM ^

Iowa is a bad matchup for UM as they are very physical.  Any physical team unfortunately is a bad matchup for the current UM team.  Northwestern is more about finesse as is PSU so I felt more confidence about the NW game than this.  But even the NW game the offense was pretty turrible to watch, esp on 3rd down.  Yes some decent holes on offense - first since Indiana but I am feeling this is fool's gold.  Iowa defense has a very stout front 7 against run with very good LBs but can be exploited in the secondary, but our current dysfunction will probably not allow much of that.  Nothing exciting on their offense, a relatively weak armed QB and a ho hum rushing team - OL is ok. Like someone else said this has 16-6 or 16-10 written all over it.   A lot of bending by Mattison and somewhere Iowa will get that one, 11 play 70 yard drive that will have everyone saying "the defense did well except that 1 drive we needed".

Ty Butterfield

November 17th, 2013 at 9:34 PM ^

They should be favored. Michigan never seems to play well at Iowa. Stupid pink locker room. The D will probably do okay at first but will be gassed by the fourth quarter because they will have been on the field too long. I really want to see Green and Smith play. I know the O-line is bad but Fitz has just looked lost out there.

MGoBlueChip

November 18th, 2013 at 8:56 AM ^

IF we stick with the two bigger backs and fitz stays on the sidelines. Green showed that he is no worse than fitz picking up blitzes and both bigger backs showed that when you don't dance and you fall forward you can go for 4-5 yds per carry. Yes Iowa has a much better defense but I don't see Fitz grinding out the yards green and smith got Sat

BILG

November 18th, 2013 at 9:33 AM ^

If I had any confidence in our staff to look at film and create a game plan and make adjustments to go against tendency I would say we had a great shot to beat them. It's obvious from many games this year (NW, Wisconsin, Illinois...even Cal) that their defense has holes to be exploited.

But instead of having guys watch hours of film to feed Borges info that he could then adjust to, we will go out and run the same garbage. That is what's most depressing about this year and staff in general....the B1G sucks and we have enough talent, even with the shit O-line, to be favored in every game except OSU, and even they are vulnerable.

Soulfire21

November 18th, 2013 at 9:45 AM ^

This sounds about right, Iowa will be probably the second best defense we have faced all season (behind MSU)  and we managed all of 6 points in that game.  Additionally, games against Northwestern and Nebraska (two middling B1G, and the B1G is terrible) defenses yielded 9 points (in regulation) and 13 points, respectively.

I have no idea who or what to blame, all I know is our offense looks like crap.  Expect something like 13-9.

Nickel

November 18th, 2013 at 10:23 AM ^

I don't like our chances.  Iowa isn't going to drop four gift-wrapped interceptions and they've got a stronger front-7 to contain our glimmer of a running game we had with Green at RB.

As an aside, what did Northwestern do in a past-life to deserve the kind of heartbreaking losses they've had lately?  Nebraska two weeks ago, us this week, us the year before. 

graybeaver

November 18th, 2013 at 10:26 AM ^

Michigan will beat Iowa, but it's highly unlikely they cover the spread against Ohio. If OSU goes undefeated and doesn't get a chance to play for a national title I will laugh my butt off. However, if I was a Buckeye I would be pissed that the rest of the conference is so bad. Wisconsin is probably the second best team and they can't even beat an average ASU team. MSU is the third best team and they can't beat an average ND. The B10 is pathetic. OSU would probably leave the conference in football if it were not for the new playoff in 2014. They are being screwed by their own conference because everyone else is average at best.

Bellanca

November 18th, 2013 at 12:21 PM ^

Purdue was the first game against a real competitor when Iowa accelerated in the second half.

However, Phil Parker is probably a better DC than Norm Parker in his later years.  Iowa is 11th in the country in overall D, has given up four rushing TDs all year.  Jordan Lynch ran for 56.   MSU had to throw to win, and the game turned into Cook's coming out party.  The DLine has vastly outperformed expectations; I would predict some NFL looks for two of them, Ott (S) and Davis (atypically large for Iowa at 6'5, 315; J) both underclassmen.  All three linebackers will be in an NFL camp.

The offense still lacks an identity1.9 seasons into Greg Davis' tenure: very weird.  The wideouts cannot separate.  The best vision and cutting in the zone scheme is offered by a the smallest back who has been third string all year; he is 25-223 in the last two games.  Weisman appears to be hurt and his productivity has plummeted since MSU.  The O pluses are the O-Line as unit, five tightends, at least three of whom will play in the NFL, a QB who is maturing rapidly and has brains (pre-med; wants to be a pediatric cardiologist), and a LT who will probably come out early and is extremely athletic (played QB, small forward, pitcher and tennis) in high school.  There is a JC transfer who can stretch and runs a 4.3x, but he doesn't get the ball much at all, and though he averaged 30 yards a catch last year it was a lot of tunnel screen stuff that the staff thinks will get him killed in this league (he's about 165).  

Iowa's lost a lot of games, but their opponents cumulative record is 37-4.  Vrabel said Iowa "kicked our asses" in the first half against OSU.  Iowa had the ball, a first down, and was down by five with seven minutes against Wiscy.  Second half adjustments until Purdue: Iowa's staff have been outcoached, I think, most of the year.  The apocalyptic special teams lapses continue, though Ferentz brought in a new guy from Vikings to coach that unit.

I would suggest this will be a close game and UM needs to exploit its matchups wide against safeties who are a step slow and a true frosh at corner.  Probably put Lowery (senior CB) on his own for much of the game.   Iowa made Cook throw to beat them, and he did.  That would seem to be the charge for UM and Gardner.

Bellanca

November 18th, 2013 at 2:08 PM ^

So Iowa moved up over its bye weekend.

9th overall D, 10th pass D, 12th scoring D, and 25th rush D.

In the past when Iowa had these numbers on defense it went to a major bowl and lost maybe 2 games.  However, the offense stutters, and during the good years special teams were a net positive.

Eastside Maize

November 18th, 2013 at 1:37 PM ^

Iowa plays us tough almost every year. We will need some semblance of balance. If we can get 150 yards rushing, between Gardner and our backs, I like our chances. Have to win the turnover battle.