Iowa favored by 6 1/2

Submitted by ChalmersE on November 17th, 2013 at 4:24 PM
Early line has Iowa up by a touchdown. Seems a bit high to me, but they may be factoring in Michigan's recent performances in Iowa City.

Comments

Jeff09

November 17th, 2013 at 4:28 PM ^

I'd be shocked if we cracked 14 points on offense in regulation. They prob have the second best defense after MSU we'll face this year, right?

BoWoody

November 18th, 2013 at 8:00 AM ^

I would say that is more michigan than Iowa.  Iowa will be blitzing all the time and gardner will hold the ball forever and get sacked.  I just cant understand why hoke didn't give an oppertunity to morris last game.  Gardner wasn't playing average or anything, give experience to your other qb and see what he can do

jmblue

November 17th, 2013 at 8:22 PM ^

This argument is overblown.  This season, we're averaging 32:11 of possession ourselves, while our opponents are averaging 27:49.  (So our offense, as bad as it is, is still on the field four minutes longer than our D per game.)  In our worst defensive outing of the season, Indiana, our D was only on the field for 21:26.  

Truth is, we just haven't had the elite defense we thought we'd have.  We're showing growth as the year goes on, though.  The D was just average for the first 6-7 games of the year, but now I'd say it's actually pretty good.  Unfortunately, the offense has been going in the other direction.

LSAClassOf2000

November 17th, 2013 at 4:36 PM ^

That's pretty consistent with the Sagarin ratings, which would give Iowa an estimated 6.67 point advantage in Iowa City. Just perusing the stats, we actually match up reasonably well in a lot of respects with Iowa, so the game - on paper - seems like a manageable one and a potential (and very important, if it happens) win if we can find something similar to a rhythm on offense. 

B-Nut-GoBlue

November 17th, 2013 at 4:42 PM ^

Iowa's secondary is shoddy at best and it would be great to exploit that...but we know the chances of that are not all that great these days.  Still, therein lies a weak point to the defense (the front 7 is stout with the Linebackers playing at a high level of football, with loads of experience to boot).

Don

November 18th, 2013 at 10:16 AM ^

Iowa's overall pass defense is third in the conference, just a hair behind second-place Wisconsin, and their pass defense efficiency is 120, with ours at 117. They're third in the conference in total defense and scoring defense, with UM at fifth and seventh, respectively. Iowa has made 10 interceptions in 310 opponent pass attempts, with UM getting 13 INTs in 361 opponent pass attempts.

In other words, if Iowa's secondary is shoddy at best, ours is not significantly better statistically.

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/stats/2013-2014/confldrs.html

B-Nut-GoBlue

November 19th, 2013 at 5:20 AM ^

Not sure if you'll read this again or not.

Anywho, I can't argue with the rankings Iowa has, touche.  I will say 4 of the10 interceptions are by the Linebackers though.  2 of the 6 if I recall were by CB Lowery in the Western Michigan game, returned for pick 6s actually.  I'm not saying we should take those away by any means.  I am giving some opposing view on the matter, though.  I don't think they're a terrible unit by any means but I think they are pretty weak, as do many here in the state, and it's hard to argue after watching them at times this year.  The fact of the matter is it's the weak point of the defense; let's see if we can exploit it or are we going to force our square offense into attacking the round Iowa front 7.

Bias aside, I like our secondary of Gordon, Wilson, Countess, Taylor much, much more than Iowa's guys no matter what stats would have to say.

Ryno2317

November 17th, 2013 at 5:22 PM ^

You guys are nuts thinking OSU will beat us that bad. They have a pretty lame defense and we can score on them.  Our defense is actually pretty good and if the offense was even decent in a couple of our losses, the defense would be awesome.  If I see improvement in the running game like I did this week, I actually like us against OSU.  Call me crazy, however, I really think we can win . . .  let us remember Illinois put up 35 on them.  

Don

November 18th, 2013 at 9:08 AM ^

That's a nice hope for a fan to have, but you cannot back that up with any evidence. Triple-posting doesn't make your argument any stronger.

Not only is Ohio State at or near the top in virtually every offensive statistic in the Big Ten, they are also better statistically on defense in virtually every category than Michigan. Our pass defense efficiency numbers are better than OSU, and we're tied in interceptions. Otherwise, their "pretty lame defense" is better than ours, and our offense is in the lower echelons of the conference.

If you doubt this, check out the facts here:

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/stats/2013-2014/confldrs.html

I would never say it's impossible for us to win, especially at home, but you cannot point to anything OSU and UM have done on the field during this season so far and rationally conclude that OSU doesn't have a significantly better team.

Ryno2317

November 17th, 2013 at 5:22 PM ^

You guys are nuts thinking OSU will beat us that bad. They have a pretty lame defense and we can score on them.  Our defense is actually pretty good and if the offense was even decent in a couple of our losses, the defense would be awesome.  If I see improvement in the running game like I did this week, I actually like us against OSU.  Call me crazy, however, I really think we can win . . .  let us remember Illinois put up 35 on them.