Indiana by the Numbers

Submitted by alum96 on

After the Minnesota near debacle I appreciate the Scarlet Knights for playing almost exactly as the numbers would show them to.  They were decent in the few places they were supposed to be, and "rutgery" in the places they were supposed to be.  After playing 2 teams back to back with few strengths and many weaknesses we face Indiana who has quite a few more strengths....but still racks up a lot of weaknesses.

Things Indiana is Good At

    Natl Rank Value
Offense      
Passing Offense   31 275.1
Passing yds per comp   23 13.76
Fumbles lost   15 3
Passes Had Intecepted   27 6
Red zone Offense   12 91.7%
Rushing Offense**   48 185.8
Sacks allowed / game   20 1.2
TFL allowed / game   26 5.1
Total offense   30 460.9
       
Defense      
Fumbles recovered   22 8
       
Misc / Special Teams      
Turnover Margin / game   24 0.56
Turnovers lost   12 9

As one would expect almost all of Indiana's strengths lay on offense.   The only thing the D does well is recover fumbles but UM usually does a good job not giving those up.   Indiana also doesn't turn the ball over much which is a credit to them considering how much yardage they generate.  Creating fumbles has been a massive issue for UM D as it is now among the worst in the nation in that category. 

Offensively I included "rushing offense" in Indiana's strengths even though they don't rank top 30ish because the excellent Jordan Howard missed quite a few games either completely or a shell of himself.  He seems to be back to full form as of last week and is a guy I wish we had gotten in the transfer market - he is a beast. 

Indiana has a quick strike deep ball offense - one thing Iowa did an excellent job last week was keeping everything in front of them; some games Sudfeld has a 10-11 yards per attempt; he was down near 5 last week which is Nick Sheridan range.  Indiana is deadly in the red zone.  Last - whether due to the quick strike nature of their offense, tired defenses, or just a QB with a quick release Indiana does not get sacked a lot.  Nor do they give up a lot of TFL so expectations should be in check in term of getting to the QB or creating negative plays.  It is not that easy against Indiana.

 

Things Indiana is Not so Good At

    Natl rank Value
Offense      
3rd down conversion %   81 38.2%
Completion %   80 57.9%
       
Defense      
3rd down conversion %   110 45.2%
Passes Intercepted   93 6
Passing yds Allowed   126 330
Red zone defense   75 84.4%
Rushing defense   77 174.0
Scoring defense   114 37.0
Total defense   119 504
       
Misc / Special Teams      
Fewest Penalties/Game   81 6.8
Fewest Penalty Yds/Game   85 59.6
Kickoff return defense   75 21.7
Kickoffs returns   97 19.4
Net punting   95 35.8
TOP   90 28:40

 

Indiana is not good at many things.  Starting at the bottom one thing I have noticed doing this for various opponents the past 5-6 weeks is that Big 10 special teams is just bad.   Not mediocre but bad.... almost all our opponents save NW really have sucked at special teams.  This leads to a huge advantage to UM.  The ave starting spot for UM's 6 TD drives last week was our own 49 yd line i.e. 51 yds to score.    Indiana continues this trend with horrid kickoff returns, bad kickoff return defense (hello Lewis), and a bad net punting game.  Expect more good field position for UM this week.  They are also often penalized and no surprise lose the TOP game (by design).

Offensively, Indiana is surprisingly bad at 3rd down conversions.  Sudfeld's completion % is 60% which is good considering how many deep balls he throws but the backups that played when he was out hurt Indiana's data point there so you can ignore it.

Defensively, Indiana is not good.  Among the nation's worst in total defense (yds given up per game) and scoring defense.  The rushing defense is not terrible but mediocre while the passing defense is putrid.  Hopefully Jake can take his talents from last week on the road.  They are also abysmal on getting teams off the field on 3rd down.

nmumike

November 13th, 2015 at 10:54 AM ^

thanks for compiling this information. Very informative and interesting. 

I hope our running game can make some progress this week against their poor rush defense, but I do think that we should be able to score a decent amount of points regardless. 

WolverineHistorian

November 13th, 2015 at 11:05 AM ^

We'll be OK as long as Indiana doesn't go all Minnesota on us...completing every stinking pass despite our defense being in perfect position all game long and being the recipient of about 20 fortunate bounces.

But their O can put up points. And the way they stayed with OSU, MSU and Iowa still has me concerned. This is probably the most nervous I've ever been to play an 0-5 team in conference.



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Brian Griese

November 13th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^

Granted we won't have a Denard like player going ape shit, but I am expecting a somewhat high scoring game within one score of each other, with of course Blue (or in this case, white) getting the win. 

LSAClassOf2000

November 13th, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^

Over at TeamRankings, their calculated Vega Implied score - which comes out of multiple runs of the game in simulations as well as from the current lines, as I recall - is something like 35-21 in favor of Michigan, so they tend to agree with that assessment. If Durkin has the defense running on all cyclinders, I don't see Indiana even touching 21, and as bad as the Hoosier defense is, I could see us getting more than 35 potentially. 

Bay_Area_Blue

November 13th, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^

Great breakdown and analysis of the stats. Sudfeld presents a real challenge, even with our very talented secondary. But we will still come out ahead by three scores. #Harbaugh

Princetonwolverine

November 13th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^

Does anyone else think Jabrill is too quick to call a fair catch ?

(Obviously I do not want him hurt but he seems to catch some with no one near him).

alum96

November 13th, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^

Maybe a few times but he also makes those crazy flying forward at the speed of Peppers near stumbling fair catches that probably save the offense 15+ yds if the ball bounces and rolls a dozen yards.  So I can live with it.

Bay_Area_Blue

November 13th, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^

Yeah, I think that's true on some occasions when he has to make a snap judgment. In view of his high pitch count on offense/defense/ST, he probably absorbs each hit with more and more caution. I'd rather he prematurely fair catch a few punts here and there to give himself viable PT on defense and offense.   Overall, though, he shows impeccable instincts when fielding punts. Kid is a baller. 

gwkrlghl

November 13th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^

Oi.

I'm a little worried about Indiana moving the ball on us, but this whole game is going to look like the 1st half vs. Rutgers. In light of your post, I'm adjusting my prediction to something like 55-16