Inaugural B1G Championship Line

Submitted by MGoBeer on November 28th, 2011 at 1:49 PM

Wisky 10 point favorites over Sparty.
Thoughts?
 

Comments

MI Expat NY

November 28th, 2011 at 2:07 PM ^

It might be more of a matter of when Winsconsin wins, they win big.  And if the spread was less than a TD, vegas might not be able to balance the book.  They lost the only two games within 10 points, afeterall.

Also, MSU won the turnover battle, blocked a punt for a TD and still needed a Hail Mary to win the first meeting at home.  I think the line is fair.

Here2CWoodson

November 28th, 2011 at 1:56 PM ^

Wow that's a shocker to me. I was thinking at most Wiscy would be giving about 3.5. This game is not in Madison, so I don't think I would put to much down on this line...

M-Wolverine

November 28th, 2011 at 1:57 PM ^

There's no reason MSU can't win the game outright.  Everyone keeps saying they're not good, and they'll lose, but all they do is win.  Wisconsin seems to alternate what team they want to bring to a game. They were supposed to get revenge for last year and laid an egg; now they're supposed to do it for this season. 'bout time they start collecting.  10-10.5 points for a team that can win the game seems criminally high. But I can see how betters around the Country would bite.

M-Wolverine

November 28th, 2011 at 4:20 PM ^

That didn't prevent a Wisconsin win, just prevented overtime. As you were huge favorites two weeks in a row, and lost on 2 hail mary passes. Michigan State controlled most of that game, and the Badgers were lucky to be in it. And after it being their big upset last year costing them "whatever", it was supposed to be their circled game.  And they got trucked most of the game. I'm not sure OT on the road was a great position to be in as a double digit favorite.

SFBlue

November 28th, 2011 at 1:58 PM ^

That line will move to 7 or 8, I think.  It should make excellent bulletin-board material for Dantonio. 

I am in favor for whatever helps Michigan the most, which is probably (in this order): (1) Sparty win, which helps our strength of schedule; (2) blow-out Wisky win, which likely sinks MSU below us in the polls. 

bigbro05

November 28th, 2011 at 2:01 PM ^

I think Wisconsin will win, but that spread is higher than expected, especially considering Wisconsin is just not that same team away from Camp Randall.

If I had to guess I think the Badgers win by 3-5 point margin

readyourguard

November 28th, 2011 at 2:04 PM ^

Wisconsin is still coached by Bielema and as nauseating as it is for me to say, Narduzzi and his street gang seem to know how to game plan.  (I swear to God I want to cut my fingers off with a log splitting maul for typing that).  I would love to see Sparty denied a trip to Pasadena again, but I fear it's Kirk Cousin's time.

stopthewnba

November 28th, 2011 at 2:07 PM ^

Sparty is playing some good football right now, and this line is high (7.5-10pts is a decent bet for MSU, 

MSU was in command of that game for the better part of 3 quarters in October ... and let's not forget Wisky's struggles away from Madison (2-2, was down 14-0 to Illinois early)

MI Expat NY

November 28th, 2011 at 2:24 PM ^

They had a lead in the 4th quarter, but in command?  Wisconsin dominated the 1st Quarter, MSU dominated the 2nd.  Without the blocked punt that game is approximately tied at half.  Then Wisconsion scored the only points of the third quarter before MSU got a two TD lead with about 10 minutes to go in the 4th, Wisconsin scored in 2:30 to get back within a TD, followed by a 3 and out for MSU.  Both teams then traded late TDs.  

By my count, they were "in command" for a grand total of two and a half minutes.  

MSU won that game fair and square.  But they got a lot of breaks.  I'd be hard pressed after that game not to think that Wisconsin was the better team.

stopthewnba

November 28th, 2011 at 2:45 PM ^

Wisconsin jumped to 14-0 lead on the first two possessions (110 yds of offense).   Their next possession, they gave up a safety (1st play of 2nd quarter) and the tide turned.

 

First two Wisconsin drives:  110 yds offense, 14 points

Next seven Wisconsin drives:  183 yds offense, 3 points

 

MSU outscored Wisconsin 31-3 during this stretch 2nd quarter - 8:00 left, 4th quarter and outgained them 313-183.

MI Expat NY

November 28th, 2011 at 2:58 PM ^

 

I get what you're saying, I just have a hard time ignoring the first quarter being completely dominated by Wisconsin, and a second half where Wisconsin outscored MSU despite a last second hail mary.  

MSU had four drives of any substance the entire game, and that includes one where over half the yards came on the hail mary.  MSU played will, excecuted well, and caught the breaks.  Wisconsin is the better team, and I expect them to win handily on Saturday.

mGrowOld

November 28th, 2011 at 2:14 PM ^

I will be in Vegas this Saturday and plan on doing a three team teaser with Wiscy, LSU and Oregon.  I think all three are going to absolutely crush it. 

BrownJuggernaut

November 28th, 2011 at 4:15 PM ^

Okay so a 7 point teaser. 

I think this could be one of those games where both sides of the teaser hits. What I mean by that is that if you tease it down to -3, you might win with Wisconsin, but you'd also win if you had Michigan State at +17. The other two are easy bets in my opinion, perhaps even without the teasing. The question is do you see Michigan State getting blown out in this game? Can you see them winning this game? Because if you do think they win and don't get blown out, that +17 looks mighty attractive.

BrownJuggernaut

November 28th, 2011 at 2:24 PM ^

Wiscy will be a very motivated team, but I think Michigan State has been playing some of its best football of the season in the last couple of weeks, albeit against weaker competition. 10 points is a lot for this game. I think it'll be close. 

MH20

November 28th, 2011 at 3:32 PM ^

It may be slightly different depending on where you go, but I just saw a line on the Boise/New Mexico game: Boise is favored by 49(!!!!!!).

Tater

November 28th, 2011 at 3:46 PM ^

Sparty fans have to be livid at this line.  Usually, one would think the line would at least be kept in single digits for a championship game.  A double-digit line is an insult.  Not only is it an insult, but I think Wiscy will cover with ease.  Sparty has their full attention now, Wilson has 12 games of experience in Wiscy's system, and the game is at a neutral site.

When Wiscy first played them, I thought they would blow Sparty out.  That is exactly what I think will happen this time.  49-21 with a meaningless fourth quarter TD for Sparty sounds about right.  

Spartan1995

November 28th, 2011 at 4:36 PM ^

Not really...Most of us understand what the line is.  It means nothing as to who they think will win the game.  It has to do with getting 50% of the money on one side and 50% of the money on the other side.  In 2010, UM was favored by 5 points and nobody, even UM fans, thought UM had any chance to win the game.  Someone mentioned that MSU doesn't travel well and UW would have a huge advantage.  The entire allotment of tickets for MSU sold out in about 2 hours.

SFBayAreaBlue

November 28th, 2011 at 3:53 PM ^

if they had beat Ohio, then ohio wouldn't be bowl elligible, if they had beat msu, we'd be in the championship game.  It doesn't really matter who wins, because the loser should drop below us, BUUUUUUT, there is a small possibility that if MSU loses a close game that they'll stay ahead of us.  So basically we need wisc to win in a blowout or lose, i'm sure they'll do neither. 

LSAClassOf2000

November 28th, 2011 at 6:31 PM ^

I think this game is close. I'd take MSU to beat that spread - even if they lost, there no reason they can't be in it by less than a TD towards the end. My other problem is that Wisconsin has a tendency to switch to their "B team" at inexplicable and inopportune times. 

Jinxed

November 28th, 2011 at 6:44 PM ^

All of Sagrin's ratings predict Sparty covering that line. The widest is the Predictor, in which Wisconsin is favored by 8.5. In the ELO Chess, Sparty is actually ranked higher than Wisconsin. 

buddhafrog

November 28th, 2011 at 7:26 PM ^

Why is this game in Indy?  The B1G championship will be there every year, right?  Why there of all places?  Central?  Is it that special of a stadium?  What was the logic?

On the other hand, can you imagine it being at The Big House this year - I'd be sick to see MSU fans filling the stadium with green.

Also could consider that Indy will almost NEVER be in the game, taking away possible pure homefield advantage.