Implications of waiting until after the Bowl Game

Submitted by Dreisbach1817 on

Alright... I went for my run after the game and "Don't Stop Believing'" appeared on my ipod so it's time to move forward.

During the run, I thought a lot about the implications about Brandon waiting until after the Bowl.  I'm feeling quite rationale given the circumstances.  Here are some conclusions I came up with:

1) I am hoping that people can think of other high profile coaches whose fate was determined after the bowl game.  To be honest, I can't think of many.  The recruiting implications seem to be the largest factor for schools who decide before the bowl.  The only coach I could think of was Charlie Weis of 08 (crushed Hawaii and then returned -- of course, i leave to someone else the honor of writing a full comparison of 2010 Rich Rod vs 2008 Charlie Weis - many similarities).

2) For recruiting -- there's always the fear that a change will adversely affect recruiting for that particular year.  For example, Brian Kelly had a poor finish for recruiting last year.  Then again, Dooley finished strong for UT last year.  But I wonder if Brandon will use this month's time to get more involved with the players heavily interested in Michigan.  He is already known as an AD who takes a keen interest in recruiting.  In addition you have players like Hart and then Frost, Walls who all want to enroll early (before the coaching decision is made).  This again has large implications.  I think the recruiting discussion is a bit complicated here, so i'm keeping my thoughts brief.  My basic premise is, if Brandon can become more active in recruiting now, a coaching transition can be smooth with player retention.

3) In my opnion, it will be either Harbaugh or Rich Rod returning.  One or the other.  Here's my guess.  During this month's time, Brandon will attempt to reach out quietly to Harbaugh to see how interested he is in the job.  On this blog, many people have debated whether Harbaugh wants this job or the NFL.  Bottom line is, no one knows for sure.  I expect DB to use his discreet political skills to reach out and find out the interest.  If Harbaugh really wants the job, I think he has a 80% chance of getting it.  If he doesn't, i think it's Rich Rod again barring a disaster in the bowl.

4) Why only 80% if Harbaugh wants the job?  Because as I see it, since we are waiting for the bowl, I think RR still has a chance to keep his job with an outstanding bowl performance.  I think it would be very hard (not impossible, but very hard) for Brandon to fire RR after, let's say, Michigan crushes a very good Big 12 or SEC team.  I'm not saying this will happen, but it says that RR still has a modicum of control over his destiny.  A close or sloppy win might not be enough to hold off Harbaugh.  But a terrific performance might.

5) Finally, I thought about discussing in depth whether GERG should be fired tomorrow -- or told he will not be retained for next year.  But upon reflection, I don't think Brandon would fire some people on the staff right now while leaving others in limbo.  I'm convinced he'll wait until after the bowl to make all coaching decisions.

Don't Stop Believing people... November 26, 2011 you will be very proud of our boys.

Geaux_Blue

November 27th, 2010 at 5:02 PM ^

 

strong willed UM drinkers will make their own informed decision. I will collect all the facts and data I need to make this decision of beer or whiskey. I will not let fat rich un-informed alums make the decision. If I let them decide it would have ended after the third jaeger suggestion.

Thank you im available all night. I also own a Sprint phone and if you need a beer or drinking game during the bball let me know.

kevin holt

November 27th, 2010 at 6:12 PM ^

high tolerance UM drinkers will drink their own informed drinks. I will drink all the drinks and drinks I need to drink this drink of beer or whiskey. I will not let fat rich brotastic fratboys drink the drinks. If I let them drink it (the keg) would have been tapped before the party started.

Thank you im drunk all night. I also own a fake id and if you need a beer or drink during the next week let me know and I will say no as I will be drinking them

AMazinBlue

November 27th, 2010 at 5:08 PM ^

prove they are capable of improvement and progress.  On the other hand, I doubt Harbaugh or any other coach wants to abandon their team before the bowl game.  It didn't work so well for RR coming here.

The gauging of JH's interest is valid, and that interest will probably be the convincing factor for DB.  If the interest is not overwhelming, RR stays and DB lives and dies with the decision.  If the interest is overwhelming, then what?  What do you do and more importantly, when do you do it.

Do you publicize the decision to help recruiting or to stabilize the staff or try to calm an angry, dis-illusioned fanbase/alumni?  No matter how you look at it, not an easy decision.

Michichick

November 27th, 2010 at 7:14 PM ^

The gauging of JH's interest is valid, and that interest will probably be the convincing factor for DB.  If the interest is not overwhelming, RR stays and DB lives and dies with the decision.  If the interest is overwhelming, then what?  What do you do and more importantly, when do you do it.

No disrespect, but I don't think that Brandon would make his decision whether to keep or dump RichRod based on Harbaugh's availability or interest.  I think he decides that RR stays or goes based on how he answers that question alone. As many have observed here, DB has a CEO mentality, which leads me to believe he won't decide to keep or fire personnel based on whether he can replace them with Candidate X.

Dreisbach1817

November 27th, 2010 at 10:00 PM ^

Of course, we are proud Michigan fans and we should assume that DB will decide on RR before considering outside candidates.  After all, Michigan doesn't wait for others; others wait for Michigan.

But I think reality holds a different course.  I think DB wants to avoid the 07 situation where we were left scrambling to find a coach.  And I think Harbaugh is far and away the best fit for MIchigan.  So, the move makes sense.  Reach out to Harbaugh quietly to see his interest -- and then use that as a factor when deciding on RR.  The fact that Harbaugh has ties to the program makes that outreach even more feasible without deciding on RR yet.  Again, he may have already reached out to Harbaugh.  Who knows.

All I know is, before becoming our AD, Brandon thought about running for Senate.  He has a politician's mind... and I see that as a good thing for us.  He would be adept at reaching out while keeping a unified front to the public with the understanding that he has the program's best interest at heart.

Unlike 07, this program has my full confidence when it comes to handling the coaching situation.

switch26

November 27th, 2010 at 5:12 PM ^

Personally, if he was going to fire RR it would have to be this coming wk sometime, which i don't think will happen at all..

 

If he waits till after the bowl game to even try to hire someone, not only does the new coach only have less than a month to do solid recruiting who knows how many kids will decommit because they wanted to play for RR.

 

I think it would be a disaster if they made the head coaching move after the bowl, but i wouldn't be surprised to see Gerg or the rest of the staff on D go if it means RR's job otherwise.  RR didn't look to pleased with Gerg several times during the game today per usual.

 

To think another coach would come in and magically turn our 18 year old freshman on D into big ten title contenders is pretty out there.  Could they get better ? sure, but we could just hire a  new D coordinator instead of completely cleaning house.

AMazinBlue

November 27th, 2010 at 5:16 PM ^

you're right back where you started, especially if Gibson et al stay on.

DB may have no choice.  Besides a new DC won't make the players any older than a new coach.

pullin4blue

November 27th, 2010 at 5:42 PM ^

I think any rational person would agree that if we are having this same argument in 12 months, the entire coaching staff should be cleared out. We are a long way from that happening. I know that people want Michigan to show improvement by having wins over our traditional big 10 rivals. Does it matter to these same people that those teams are ranked 6,7 and 9th in the nation? This is not a comparison of apples and apples when looking at player talent. 

We definitely have youth and inexperience. Despite seeing our team get torched today, I took away some positives. I think our defense played a pretty damned good 1st quarter and most of the 2nd quarter. Coaches can only try to educate the players on ball control (don't turn it over) and mistakes in position or play reading.

Has every graduate of the University of Michigan graduated with a 4.0? No. The professors and the University give the students the tools and information necessary to get a 4.0, but for some reason, some kids get it and others take a longer time to get it. Until they let the coaches strap on the helmet and put on some pads, they are not responsible for everything that happens on the field (good or bad).

Coaches need to put their athletes in a position to win games. Give them the tools and see what they can do with them. I say just give them some more time. 

nmajali

November 27th, 2010 at 5:43 PM ^

To be honest at this point I really don't care anymore about this coaching debate, all I'm thinking about is the headache Michigan fans had to go through over the last 3 years. A transition will be tough for us regardless of who is the choice is. Currently I'm not too excited about change maybe Brandon coming out and endorsing RR and GERG would be a smart move for now, it will help in recruiting because recruits will feel more secure, it will help in keeping players at Michigan and we will have a much more mature team for next season. I cannot event start to wonder where Michigan will be next season with some of the experience on defense, yes I agree with most of the people who will say a bunch of freshmen turning to sophomores isn't experience but getting JT floyd and the wolf back will be a great bonus, and our front seven should almost be intact, with a couple of developed people on the secondary to support. On offense we get the same players minus 2 offensive lineman, we should have good subs around for them, so in all we should lose 3 to 4 starters on the whole team... That should position Michigan to win at least 9 to 10 games next season with the hopeful decrease in turnover margin and a more mature defense. And oh, a hopefully more mature offense. I think the future is bright, RR did take sometime we bet on him, we expected to lose to Iowa, OSU, Penn state, wisconsin and MSU before the season started and we did, the fact that we started 5 and 0 should not be used against RR!! So many people are pissed he didn't surprise us with an extra win or 2, but come on, we can give him this one last year to see where he can take us.. He did move in the right direction this season, we just need to be more patient than we usually are, but patience is the key to good things, RR is starting to bleed maize and blue, let's not give up on him just yet.. I just want stability for now, we've invested too much already, the future should be very bright from here.. Go blue

ChalmersE

November 27th, 2010 at 6:28 PM ^

I'd have talked with Harbaugh already.  

I agree that it's either Harbaugh or bring back RR.  If the latter, I'd give him a 2-year extension to shut everyone up.  I really don't want to be discussing RR's future next November again.

BTW, if I remember correctly RR's buyout goes down on Wednesday.

bluewave720

November 27th, 2010 at 7:32 PM ^

You either fire him or give him an extension, IMO.  Unfortunately, there is no middle ground.  

We keep losing traction in recruiting with layup type comments like "are you sure who'd be your coach after next season."

For the sake of this argument, it doesn't require me to say which side of the fence I am on.  But I agree with you, Chalmers.  I don't want another fucking off-season, regular season, November, whatever where we have to keep hearing about RR's job security. 

buddha

November 27th, 2010 at 6:55 PM ^

Does DB need to make a statement one way or the other about RR's job security prior to the bowl game? I am worried that potential recruits may see how hot RR's job seat is now and jump off the UM ship. This is an important time for recruiting, especially since many top notch athletes will be making their decisions post-HS playoffs and the all-star games. So, given the already high levelof negative recruiting (or at least documented), I feel like waiting until after the bowl game to make an announcement will just fuel the speculation about job security and affect possible player commitments.

wolverhorn

November 27th, 2010 at 7:03 PM ^

We've all been caught up in this debate for so long with ignorant fans, family members who don't want to listen (or worse listen to mass media ahhh), etc.  Today I have nothing.  I have no idea what to say about that game.  Whatever it would be wouldn't be anything I haven't said before.

But I'm comfortable with not debating anymore.  I would love to keep the coaches and prove the haters wrong, but ultimately I root for the team and not the coaches.  And I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.  So there's no point in me worrying about it.

I imagine some change will happen.  Obviously I don't know what, but Michigan will still be Michigan and I'll still root for them regardless of whatever happens.  

I'm going to try to avoid the board for a while.

M-Wolverine

November 27th, 2010 at 7:16 PM ^

DB can't just be hanging out with recruits, any more than any coach can...even less. And I'd be mighty suspicious if I was Rich and Dave suddenly wanted to be all involved in recruiting.

bighouseinmate

November 27th, 2010 at 7:20 PM ^

....for the future.

I believe RR and even Gerg had a great gameplan for this game going in. The first two drives went 3 and out and our O was moving the ball well against them. If not for the dropsies by Roundtree and the fumble by Denard, UM could have been up 14-0 or more at the end of the first quarter. The decision to hold Hagerup out ended up biting us all game long with only one decent punt, and that was by Tate when tOSU had the game well in hand. I applaud RR though for sticking to the rules, no matter how it affects the team. He has integrity, unlike many of the other coaches I've witnessed over the course of the year.

Unfortunately, the seeming non-competitiveness of the team after the kickoff return TD will overshadow that first quarter and a half of good play. And with that, the screaming for RR to be fired, as seen on here since the end of the game, is louder than ever. It is very unfortunate because I believe the defense is starting to believe in themselves and with an entire offseason and better conditioning, could be ok next year. It is also very unfortunate because the offense has shown the ability to move the ball against the best defenses the B10 has to offer, although even that is somewhat overshadowed by the youthful mistakes they've made which ends up killing drives. They could be a very, very good offense next year.

If a coaching change is made, IMO we will end up in an almost neverending cycle of never being good enough to compete for the B10 championship due to the fanbase calling for the head of the coach before the coach has a decent chance of making something good happen. I don't believe Harbaugh can come in here and have this team competing for the B10 in year 3 given the changes he will have to make. And if RR goes after year 3, the precedent will have been set and no coach can expect more than 3 years to have this team competing at an acceptable level in the future.

Now, having said the above, I feel that RR should be given at least one more year, with or without Gerg as DC.

jmblue

November 27th, 2010 at 8:25 PM ^

If a coaching change is made, IMO we will end up in an almost neverending cycle of never being good enough to compete for the B10 championship due to the fanbase calling for the head of the coach before the coach has a decent chance of making something good happen.

People need to stop beating up this strawman.  Florida fired Ron Zook after 2.5 seasons.  USC fired Paul Hackett after three seasons.  Far from entering in a death spiral, those two programs landed Urban Meyer and Pete Carroll, respectively. 

As for our fanbase supposedly being our reasonable, the fact of the matter is that RR has the worst winning percentage of any coach in school history.  Just because fans are upset with his 15-21 performance does not mean they would be with every coach.  Hopefully, the next coach would learn from RR's catastrophic mistake in 2008 of cleaning house and putting in completely new systems rather than ease into things.

UMMAN83

November 27th, 2010 at 7:22 PM ^

Anytime you post anything remotely critical .... even though you are devote fan you get negged.

That is a sad commentary on striving to be the best.  Maybe that is why we have hit the dumps.  Criticism is good for men that have character and can build with the input.

There are too many kids that know nothing about UM ootball posting their limited opinions on this board.  Go Blue.  Here is to OLD UM Football.

danross

November 27th, 2010 at 8:30 PM ^

I think RR should be given another year. My initial reaction when I heard that DB would wait until after the bowl game was basically thart it helped RR's chances of staying due to potential impact of the lateness of such a change, the chance of a protracted search messing with recruiting, etc.

However, after thinking about it a bit you only have to go so far as our opposing coach today to see a successful change made after the bowl game. Cooper was let go after a 2nd straight bowl loss to an average South Carloina team, and then there was his record against us. As much as Harbaugh seems like a layup as a potential successor now, so too was The Lesticles in 2007. That didn't work so well. There is a nonzero risk of Harbaugh not working out for one reason or another, and failing to get Harbaugh in a January change could be potentially disastrous indeed. Guess that brings me full circle.

Wolv1984

November 27th, 2010 at 8:34 PM ^

At 7-5 and unranked we'll likely have an earlier bowl.  Whereas our two main targets would likely be Harbaugh or Miles (I know Miles isn't popular in these parts, but the man has only lost to Auburn and he has a special clause in his contract for a low buyout if he comes home to Ann Arbor).  Both of those teams are ranked and will likely be playing in a bowl after ours.  

So DB has time to see how RR does in a bowl, see two other people do in their bowl and then puts in the wheels in motion if he feels the need.  The big loss would of course be recruiting time by not making an official until the the first week Jan.

I've always felt like DB is looking for reasons to keep RR, not fire him but man RR did not do himself any favors today.  He'll have 15 practices now to show DB something.  Of course the big problem is beating up some other middle of the pack team from another conference doesn't really make up for getting Tressel's foot so far up your ass you could tie his shoelaces with your tongue.