"[Illinois] is an absolute, have-to-have-it win."
Just reading an interview on the Rivals.com site with former Michigan linebacker Ron Simpkins. Asked about this weekend's game at Illinois he said: "It's a must-win. Illinois is a bad football team and you need to beat bad football teams. You can't give them any hope. You let them stay in this going into the fourth quarter and they're going to have some confidence and a crowd at their back. Michigan has to go in there and be up at the half and have this game won going into the fourth quarter. This is a dangerous game because you don't want to start a losing streak. There's no Delaware State next week that's an automatic win. This is an absolute, have-to-have-it win."
So there are those two words "Must Win". How many times have we heard on this board that "No game is a must win" or "All games are a must win". Are we ready to admit at least that this win is LIKELY the difference between bowl eligibility and maybe a winning season versus the possible precurser to losing out and a 5-7 record.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:54 PM ^
This is pretty close to a must-win.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:13 PM ^
I don't think Purdue's win vs. OSU was anything more than an off day for the Suckeyes and the perfect game plan from the Boilermakers. Wisconsin is only averaging 189 yds through the air and has only 9 TD passes to 8 INT's. I know we don't generally play well in Madison but I think we match up good with their lack of passing attack. OSU is a rivalry game and even though we don't match up well it's still a rivalry game. I think if we do lose this next one (PLEASE NO!), combined with the bad press and all the other things surrounding the program it may not bode well for M. So, I think this is about as close to a must win as there can be.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:04 PM ^
The next two weeks should clarify exactly where this team is. Right now, we know that we are good enough to beat non-BCS teams fairly easily. We need to beat the bottom of the Big Ten or this year is a regression, in my opinion.
If we beat Illinois and Purdue convincingly, this season is a complete success regardless of what happens against Wisconsin and Ohio State.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:08 PM ^
No season is a complete success without wins against ND, MSU, and OSU.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:59 PM ^
I know a lot can change with a football team in a year, but that BEAT DOWN we received from Illinois last year is fresh in my mind. The scary thing about Illinois is that they were dangerous at times and I feel like they will catch lightning in a bottle at some point this season. This may be an unpopular sentiment, but I think M needs to slow down, take a breath, and try to win a 20-14 ballgame even if our goal is just to lesson the number of possessions to a certain degree. A shoot out with Illinois scares me with them playing with nothing to lose, and M playing with a freshman QB struggling lately on the road. This win doesn't need to be impressive or convincing, it just needs to be in the W column, some how some way.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:07 PM ^
I would say it is a must-win for RR, but not necessarily for the team.
If we lose this game, even I would start to question RR. Up until this point, we have won the games that we should be winning +1 against ND. That puts us at 7-5 if we win the games we should win and lose the games we should lose. That's right where most thought we would be and RR is on track to take us to B10 champs next year and NC contention the year after.
Without that win, Purdue becomes the must-win for bowl eligibility...then Wisconsin...then OSU...in which case they are all must-wins or none of them are must-wins.
October 27th, 2009 at 8:07 PM ^
expecting to be big10 champs next year and NC contention in 2011, to me, is a ludicrous time table. it's these type of expectations that will threaten rodriguez's plans to make us champs again.
October 27th, 2009 at 8:15 PM ^
How do you figure. Asclose as we are to not being bowl eligible we could be a 1 loss team vying for the big 10 this year. Iowa and MSU we could have won. Not should have but could have. I don't expect us to win the big ten next year but being in contention for the big ten championship is expected. I know certain things can happen to change all that but I like how much this team has improved this year, alot.
October 28th, 2009 at 10:31 AM ^
the timeframe for when he springs his super duper secret master plan. I would think that if he could, he'd have planned to go to a Rose Bowl after three years. Even Ron Zook did that. Because it sounds like you are giving him as much slack as WV did, when all I hear is that "Michigan has inherent advantages that he didn't have there, so it'll go faster this time."
October 27th, 2009 at 6:08 PM ^
You're one game short of bowl eligibility. Illinois is definately the weakest opponent of your four remaining and it's going to be giving a new, inexperienced QB minutes under center. I have to agree with Ron Simpkins on this, if you want to count yourself as a good team, you win this game.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:12 PM ^
and they will be looking at this game to salvage their season- it will be tough. Purdue is much tougher than their record, and as a pass-heavy team matches up well against the weakness' of UM's defense. It helps that the game is at home. Sorry, but I don't see a win either at Wisky or vs OSU this year. Definitely would love to make a bowl this year, and if it has to be a craptastic bowl, let it be the Insight. AZ is pretty nice in late December.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:12 PM ^
The Iowa game was not a must win. This game is, however.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:35 PM ^
then Illinois is a must-win. Not because there are no games after this, of course there are, but if Michigan loses to Illinois, Purdue will look huge and much more difficult and Wisco and OSU look like Mt. Everest.
Winning this game ends the concern over a possible losing season and getting to bowl game, yada, yada, yada. But, more importantly, it washes the taste of PSU out of the team's mouths and gives some confidence back to this team so Purdue is the next step up.
If they lose to Illinois, Purdue might be the last chance. Let's be honest, if they lose those two, it's hard to argue with any certainty that UM can win one or both of the last two.
Is this game an absolute must-win, not technically, but for the psyche of the team and coaches, against a 1-6 team, a win on Saturday IS must happen.
October 27th, 2009 at 7:01 PM ^
RR won't be fired if they lose this game. As far as the team goes, even if they lose they still have a reasonable chance of beating Purdue for the 6th win. Even if it's a losing season, he'll still get one more crack at it next year. Hopefully we won't end up having to see a true "must win" game for RR.
October 27th, 2009 at 7:38 PM ^
Sure, I'd be pretty darn confident he wouldn't be fired after only 2 years, because people with common sense know he shouldn't be. Bill Martin has enough common sense, or at least enough conservative old-school bones in his body to fall into this category.
What we (as a discerning, educated, and mostly level-headed fan base) don't want to have to deal with is those who are not educated, those who are not aware of extenuating circumstances, those who are generally "old guard" folks, and those who are just very, very demanding of the program. They won't take a second year of "rebuilding" lying down, they'll complain and get riled up and then it will be "Michigan in Trouble" and "Fan Rebellion" and "Boosters kill baby seals in protest" in the Free Press.
So if anything, this is a must win for us (again, as a discerning, educated, and mostly level-headed fan base), more so than for our coach.
October 27th, 2009 at 8:11 PM ^
Is Tate's shoulder okay? Id hate that our season to be riding on his shoulder as much as it is but until we get some depth ... especially on defense and at QB (Denard is good but a healthy Tate is much better at the moment) it really is.
October 27th, 2009 at 8:19 PM ^
The team's psychological state is at stake. Lose it, and the wheels could come off. Furthermore, the players and fans need to know this is going to be a dog fight. Simpkins better realize that, too. When you're struggling to do the little things right, games like these are toss-ups and games against good teams are uphill battles.
I heard Rodriguez tell the team, "We have to correct a lot in a week," after the DSU game in reference to their preparation for PSU. Well, a young, thin team isn't going to correct a lot in a week. Instead of worrying about wins and losses, everyone that is "All In" needs to be concerned about playing good football. The wins and losses will take care of themselves.
Again, this team is very similar to last season's hoop squad: walk-ons playing significant roles b/c of roster depth issues, and the team will struggle all season until the end. I just hope that RR is as patient as Beilein. Beilein had the luxury of low expectations and an indifferent fan base, however.
October 27th, 2009 at 8:32 PM ^
Isnt every game a must win?
At least I thought so based on the reactions during live blogs and the mood in the forums after a loss.
But, seriously, every game is a must win in the national title chase. So might as well take that attitude all the time.
Every Saturday is a must win for programs like Michigan. Thats how the coaching staff and players approach it.
October 27th, 2009 at 9:48 PM ^
I agree that this game is a must-win in order to gain bowl elgibilty. As Simpkins said "you need to beat bad football teams" and the ILLINI are just that.
The rest of the season will be a challenge and I sure hope no one is sleeping on Purdue as they have looked pretty decent/good the last 2 weeks.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:15 PM ^
For momentum purposes, this game is huge. If we lose here, the chances of ending the season 5-7 increase dramatically. The team is going to appear (whether they are or not is a different thing) to be lost and the media pressure will turn on up. You can expect those "RR on the hotseat" comments to fire back up again.
I'd rather not have this happen.
October 28th, 2009 at 11:20 AM ^
This game just stinks of the Illini catching lightning in a bottle, Juice going supernova, and everyone wondering where-oh-where has that been all season. I've been a Michigan fan for too long, and, regardless of our coach, we have a nauseating habit of being a launch pad for Heisman trophy hype. Juice isn't going to win a Heisman, but I'm worried about a "Justin Siller"-performance.
I love Michigan football, but for some reason, win or lose, my fan-hood is defined by painful moments and worry.