If it gon’ rain in South Bend, who gon’ win?

Submitted by 21runnin_WILD on August 28th, 2018 at 9:13 PM

Was looking at the forecast for the game on Saturday... looks like it could be a wet opener. 60% and scattered t-storms. 

If this game is to be played in those conditions, who has the edge? I guess we’ll actually get to see if Harbaugh has evolved and learned his lessons from last year (Michigan State).

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USIN0624:1:US

Comments

Indonacious

August 28th, 2018 at 9:16 PM ^

I wonder if this is the reason the line had moved 2.5 points and now is ND as 1 point favorites. Also, rumors are ND starting RB Williams may play now -previously thought to be suspended. 

RobM_24

August 28th, 2018 at 9:20 PM ^

I'd assume rain would help the team with the better OL and running game. I'm guessing that favors ND. They have the more mobile QB as well.

RobM_24

August 28th, 2018 at 9:45 PM ^

NC State had a running QB who racked  up decent yardage, and a solid overall run game. ND tried to pass twenty something times and couldn't execute a snap without fumbling. So yeah, like ND and NC State in 2016. I obviously want Michigan to win, but I'd rather have the better OL in a rainy game, and I have a hard time seeing us as having the better OL -- especially with a new Center and QB exchange to worry about.

stephenrjking

August 28th, 2018 at 9:28 PM ^

Notre Dame isn't going to score much anyway, so if it's raining enough to affect offense that surely helps them here. 

Remember, though, that Michigan's offense suffered mainly because of: 1. Absolutely torrential downpour, as bad as it's ever been at Michigan Stadium; and 2. A terrible QB.

There's a good chance that neither of those conditions will be a factor Saturday.

stephenrjking

August 29th, 2018 at 2:44 AM ^

Ha ha. Actually, between the TD (which had good weather, and was set up by two successful pass plays) and the last drive when there were 34 seconds left, Michigan only called 10 pass plays (not including plays that result in a penalty). There were 12 rushing plays called in that same span, and a couple of plays that were called a pass turned into "runs" because O'Korn scrambled or was sacked, though those were included in the "pass" total.

Michigan occasionally made some gains on the ground, but they also got stymied a lot as MSU relentlessly brought in their safeties. Michigan's last drive with any kind of time available, starting with 5:51 to go in the 4th, featured two runs of 0 and -3 yards by Chris Evans sandwiching a modest 6-yard pass to Sean Mckeon. 

There aren't many plays you can call when you can't execute most of the plays in your playbook. 

 

 

Salinger

August 29th, 2018 at 9:01 AM ^

Bottom line is Michigan needs to be able to keep NDs safeties honest. A stacked box makes Jim a sad boy, is what I'm saying. Especially if the weather is not conducive to throwing. If Michigan can't make ND pay for cheating their secondary to the LoS, there may be problems. Nothing new here, obvious is obvious and whatnot, but let's hope that this revamped staff has some crafty ideas for what to do if the weather is a factor. Can't have another MSU debacle. 

stephenrjking

August 28th, 2018 at 9:41 PM ^

I think we're drilling down a little too specifically here. You have four small sets here: Road wins, road rivalry games, road games against ranked teams, and road games in the rain.

All of these sets are tiny. Next year will be the first time we have ever had three "rivalry" road games in the same season, assuming a tight definition of rivalry. We don't play on the road in the rain (or anywhere in the rain) all that often. And, of course, road wins are hard to come by, particularly when the team has been mediocre since the mid-2000s.

 

Nervous Bird

August 28th, 2018 at 9:52 PM ^

I'd prefer for it to not rain. But, that might be a fitting start to the season. It might put some collective steel in the spine of the team, giving them the understanding that this road to a championship will not be easy, and will have to be earned by overcoming various adversities each and every week. This is not a cushy dome. This is not a cupcake on our home field. This is a rival, on the road, in nasty elements... get accustomed to this kind of fight!

OwenGoBlue

August 28th, 2018 at 10:06 PM ^

Favors the good guys. 

For as much understandable (if overstated) griping we have about JOK throwing in the rain, Brian Kelly did this against NC State in a hurricane and blamed his center.