I hesitate to type this but: we will win big tomorrow

Submitted by wolverine1987 on October 23rd, 2009 at 12:35 PM

I am normally the type to be very cautious in my M predictions, in fact I shade to the pessimistic, e.g. I thought we'd barely squeak by Western. This is because of the underachievement of the Carr years, the awfulness of last year, and the understanding of our current lack of depth/inexperience. I picked us to lose close before both MSU and Iowa, as I'm sure others did. And I also have a degree of superstition that often prevents me from these sorts of predictions.

HOWEVA, I can't get over the nagging feeling that this week will be different--and that's what it is, a feeling more than a rational analysis, First the rational analysis: I think PSU is overrated, and we know that Daryl Clark is inconsistent in big games, as we saw with their Iowa loss. If (a big if) we can get consistent pressure, turnovers could be our friend. Our offense is better than any they've faced so far, and while we are subject to stretches of poor offensive play, I look for the offense to come around at home. IMO, unlike last year (1st half Minor RAGE) we should look in the first half to pressure PSU through the air, downfield in particular, to get them out of the box, and pressure their secondary. If this is successful on a couple of occasions, the run will open up and Molk's return should make a large impact.

Now the feeling: there is often a time in a young team's season, one point where a team grows up, puts aside mistakes, and make plays that they did not make earlier. Where the practice drills kick in, where the light bulb comes on, and the season changes for the better. That often happens in big games, and often at home. I think we are confident at home, we have the revenge factor, Tate is healthy for the first time in awhile, and again, I think PSU is overrated. That is enough for me, I'm going with the feeling and putting it out there:

Michigan 31, PSU 17

Comments

BlueBulls

October 23rd, 2009 at 12:40 PM ^

Since points are fluid, at the start of the game post on this thread how many points you have, then based on the outcome you will receive a corresponding pos/neg bang.

IPKarma

October 23rd, 2009 at 12:50 PM ^

Tate doesn't fall flat after his lackluster Iowa performance and little action against DS. Plus it will be cold and raining.

I hope Tate really establishes himself tomorrow, but am concerned.

wolverine1987

October 23rd, 2009 at 1:13 PM ^

and that is one of them. I'm worried about Tate's confidence after Iowa, and he could regress instead of renew his early season magic. Also, while they are overrated I think their defense is tough, and we could struggle badly. And then of course there is our defense, enough said. But I'm going with the intangibles for this.

Sextus Empiricus

October 23rd, 2009 at 2:26 PM ^

The Iowa game was concussion induced IMO (which is an issue in my mind - but not RR's - he says he's good to go wrt the concussion.)

What Tate does well, he brought to the program. I'm interested to see if he can execute the system better with learning from Iowa or not.

I'm also interested in new wrinkles from the DSU bye week.

Our OL (with Molk and good showing vs. Iowa) trumps their DL (which is excellent.) So no worries about their D. They haven't seen an O like Mich's all year.

That said the real story will be BG busting out. Penn State has had 3 RTs this year. Their OL is a bigger question mark than our D (which is rising.)

number63

October 23rd, 2009 at 12:51 PM ^

I, too, believe that Penn State is overrated and we will win handily. They are definitely not the 13th best team in the nation... not even close actually.

Michigan 34 PSU 17.

justthinking

October 23rd, 2009 at 2:42 PM ^

I think Brandon Graham will find his number and find it early. I wouldn't sleep well at night knowing that guy is going to be gunning for me on Saturday.

The crowd needs to be UP for this game as big as the ND game - which was deafening at field level (Row 2). The 12th man on the field will be a HUGE asset - especially in poor weather. Take them out mentally and physically - early and often.

jtmc33

October 23rd, 2009 at 12:56 PM ^

from CNNSI (Mandel) and 3 of the 5 at CBS.Sportline, we will win by 4 or less.

At CFN and USA Today it's Penn St. (Yes, I know, CFN...)

Just the fact that in one short year, we've gone from having every single prediction go against us to having 4 of 8 picking UM verse the #13 team in the country is impressive.

As an aside, I see this as a fork-in-the-road game for UM. If they win, they are truly back, all of last year will be forgotten with great (revenge) wins over ranked ND and Penn St. Wisco and OSU are truly winnable games and a New Year's Bowl is actually possible.

If we lose... it could be 7-5 and a "not good enough" feeling.

Must Beat Penn State.

ameed

October 23rd, 2009 at 1:05 PM ^

7-5 would be in line with reasonable expectations, I don't really think that wouldn't be good enough. I agree that a win this weekend would help solidify our program and really cast aside much of the doubt out there.

As Brian said on the podcast, winning against PSU really raises the ceiling on the rest of the season, making 8-9 wins (and new years day) very possible.

Beavis

October 23rd, 2009 at 2:17 PM ^

7-5 wouldn't be bad by any means after 3-9.

The main downside is I can just imagine all of the talking heads before the 2010 season saying something like this:

"And after starting out 4-0, Michigan managed to go 3-5 over their next 8 games on their way to the Crap.com bowl to play Clemson"

But yeah... I mean... 3-9.... we're light years beyond that at this point.

champswest

October 23rd, 2009 at 2:12 PM ^

Win this game and the sky is the limit. Lose it and we could spiral out of control. We need to be consistant on defense and limit the errors on offense. Both Iowa and MSU shut down the offense for most of the game and only late surges made it close. An early lead for UM and PSU could feel the pressure. I think that PSU is coming in tight, so lets turn the screws a little on them early and see if they crack. UM in a low scoring close one.

umchicago

October 23rd, 2009 at 2:25 PM ^

"I see this as a fork-in-the-road game for UM"

i think i've thought this before just about every game this year. needing to play well against wmu (given last year), needing to beat ND (to prove we can compete with a good team); msu and iowa (to beat/compete on the road). now PSU - beat another good team; to prove ND wasn't a fluke.

this team has far exceeded my expectations in terms of competitiveness. imo, we've laid one egg (indiana), yet we still won. that speaks volumes to me.

The King of Belch

October 23rd, 2009 at 1:12 PM ^

This team is now distanced from the hullbaloo (YES!) over the Notre Dame win. It is time for UM to reassert itself, and this game being at home against a very good team in PSU is the right time.

I do not like it when fans keep posting that Team X is "not very good" or is "over rated." Many said that about MSU and Iowa and DOINK!--UM lost to both of those teams.

This will be a real test. Penn State is a good team and is well coached. They still have veteran expereince where we are young. After the missed opportunites at MSU and Iowa, UM needs this to show that they can be a force even while still developing.

I think this game sets up nicely for UM to go out and do just that--and I'll buy into a two-touchdown victory that helps carry UM into Camp Randall at 8-2 with a chance to manufacture a very special season--one that will have been very unexpected.

BiSB

October 23rd, 2009 at 2:08 PM ^

You risk invoking the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing...

... but I like the confidence.

Final Score:
Michigan 97, Penn State -2
(Bonus points for the source of the reference)

MH20

October 23rd, 2009 at 2:13 PM ^

I just beat PSU 41-35 in my NCAA '10 Road To Glory career. My player had 6 tackles from his OLB spot, including a sack.

We jumped out to a 14-0 lead thanks to 2 PSU fumbles, but then PSU stormed back, taking a 21-17 lead early in the 3rd on a 61 yard run by Evan Royster (he also another big run that lead to an earlier TD). I started to think maybe this one was slipping away. But after trading 3-and-outs, we got the ball and marched down the field, finding paydirt on Brandon Minor's 2nd TD run of the game. The score was 24-21, Michigan, when Donovan Warren picked off an errant pass from Kevin Newsome (not sure if Clark was hurt or if Newsome supplanted him as starter) and returned it to the house to put us up 31-21. Another defensive stop returned the ball to Michigan, where Tate marched us down and hit Greg Mathews for a 22 yard score. The scoreboard read 38-21 with 3:10 left. PSU scored on their next drive, we got a field goal, and then the Lions got a worthless touchdown with literally 0:00 on the clock. Game over!

For all intents and purposes, this one was 41-28. Go Blue!

Beavis

October 23rd, 2009 at 2:09 PM ^

The best comp for this game is the ND game. Why?

1) It's at home
2) We're an underdog by about the same pt spread
3) PSU/ND seem to have about the same level of talent this year

Given this info, I don't think we will win "big" tomorrow. PSU is too close to the quality of ND, that even if our offense is on fire like it was in the ND game, our defense probably won't be able to keep PSU under wraps to the point of killing them.

However, I do think we pull this one out.

1) Our defense has improved since the ND game
2) We are undefeated at home
3) Historically we dominate PSU whenever the talent level is close (needless to say last year was not close)

Michigan 31 PSU 27

MGoBlue22

October 23rd, 2009 at 2:45 PM ^

Knock on wood, but I have never (fortunately) witnessed a UM loss in person (including the Wisconsin game last year) and, as luck would have it, I was able to buy tickets for the game tomorrow. I am confident that we will prevail. GO BLUE!!

dennist717

October 23rd, 2009 at 5:08 PM ^

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