I have a question

Submitted by s1105615 on October 10th, 2017 at 2:07 PM

So here's the question I've been racking my brain with since Saturday night.  When was the last time UM got a break (questionable or close officiating call, fumble off a snap or exchange, etc), basically some play that cannot be explained through RPS or even a simple talent advantage.

I have also noticed that UM rarely creates a turnover unless the game is already decided in their favor.  The only examples that currently come to mind are against UC (pick 6) and Wisconsin last year (Lewis INT). 

Granted that if this is the case and UM just doesn't get breaks, the question becomes one of when will UM return to the mean by getting a truckload of breaks, or is UM regressing to the mean due to having inordinate success prior to 2007?

There isn't much a coach or player can do to account for the luck of a fumble bouncing back to the offense instead of to the defense so this really is more of a intellectual exercise rather than a way to try and focus blame on anyone, and who honestly believes that Harbaugh or Brown are at fault for the way UM lost on Saturday?

Am I wrong about that or just blinded by the glare of the losses?  Anyway, just curious if anyone has seen the same thing.  And if I'm wrong, please provide examples so I can regain my hope that UM can expect the possibility of getting those types breaks in any of the games remaining on the schedule this year, rather than relying on being up by 3 scores going into the 4th quarter to seal a win.

Comments

ijohnb

October 10th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^

the first play of the 2017, Devin Bush was allowed to remain in the game after a pretty clear targeting call.

Against Purdue, we got a running into the kicker call on what was a pretty obvious roughing call.

 

 

The Man Down T…

October 10th, 2017 at 6:38 PM ^

in that game were breaks.  That TD was an inch from being picked or at least knocked away and because the defender goes for that he takes out the other defender and we score.  The first field goal was set up on the luckiest of fake fieldgoal plays where the fake was completely blown up and a desparate pass bounces off a defender right to the long snapper for a first down and subsequent FG attempt.

Goggles Paisano

October 10th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^

I've been wondering about this same shit before every big game and keep waiting for our turn to catch some of these random breaks/calls.  Maybe it happens in Happy Valley in 2 weeks.  It will happen, just a matter of when.  

True Blue Grit

October 10th, 2017 at 2:13 PM ^

Here's my question:  Is this the best thread title you can come up with?  At least put something in there related to what you're asking.  And my non-specific answer to your three questions is we actually get a bunch of breaks, but most of us only pay attention to the ones that go against us. 

theytookourjobs

October 10th, 2017 at 2:13 PM ^

if you have to rely on lucky breaks and officiating to win games, you are screwed.  (Unless of course you're OSU playing in Columbus.  In that case, things generally go in your favor)

Real and Spectacular

October 10th, 2017 at 2:16 PM ^

I feel like MSU got the majority of "luck" in that game but not all of it. They had to start a true freshman on the line due to injury and also didn't have LJ Scott. They dropped an easy pass just like McDoom did. And even though it was their own stupidity, we caught a couple huge breaks with personal fouls allowing us to move down the field in the end and their holding call that stopped the clock. Point is, we shouldn't depend on getting breaks, they usually go both ways.

Mattb_22

October 10th, 2017 at 2:17 PM ^

We got a huge break when Michigan St. committed a holding penalty while running out the clock, thus giving us about :35 for one last drive. Then, McDoom dropped the pass, nullifying our lucky break, and that was pretty much that. I am not sure what my point is. 

ijohnb

October 10th, 2017 at 2:34 PM ^

think what you are saying is that this past Saturday, any flicker of hope that appeared was immediately and repeatedly dashed by the cold hard reality that the football gods had already deliberated hours earlier and that we were going to lose the game in brutal frustrating fashion.

evenyoubrutus

October 10th, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^

It certainly feels like we get fewer breaks than our opponents, and I don't know the answer, but I can certainly say that our breaks, or lack of breaks, has nothing to do with how many breaks we got prior to 2007, or 2017, or last week for that matter. The rule of random events is that each random event has no effect on following events. That is why they are random.