Hypothetical- #1 2013 MBB vs (potentially) #1 2019 MBB

Submitted by TryggerHappy on January 14th, 2019 at 11:19 PM

Let’s have some fun- with Duke going down, and if we take care of business over the weekend, comparisons between the Last two #1 Mich Hoops team will be made. Who you guys got (and why) in a H2H between the two best squads we’ve had in the past 20 years? 

Comments

ak47

January 14th, 2019 at 11:58 PM ^

This team isn't nearly as good on offense. At one point the 2013 team had the highest offense rating ever in kenpom. Burke was the national player of the year, 2013 vs this team would likely be close but if the 2013 offense was hitting on all cylinders they could do what Nova did to this team in the championship game last year. 2019 is just too likely to go 6 minutes without scoring.

A Lot of Milk

January 15th, 2019 at 12:09 AM ^

That's the one caveat with this hypothetical. I feel like 2013 was all over the map and very inconsistent. Lost at Penn State and some other ugly games but played nearly flawless basketball in the tourney. 2019 is certainly more consistent but it really depends on whether 13 hits their shots or not. For my money, in a single game setting, I would bet on 13 to take the win

TrueBlue2003

January 15th, 2019 at 2:04 AM ^

I have another caveat: Michigan may have been the best ever in the kenpom era in 2013 but with offenses getting better and better, that team has been outdone many times since then. In fact, the Michigan team the very next year sans Burke was quite a bit better (2 pts/100 possessions) and still was only the third best team that year.  The 2016-17 Michigan team was also better on offense than the 2013 team despite being the 4th best offense that season.

TheDirtyD

January 15th, 2019 at 7:13 AM ^

Nova was on an entirely different level offensively than the 2013 team or really any other college team to say they could do that is rare. The 2019 Team is almost the same rating number offensively on Kenpom. 2013 team played average defense while the 2019 team is always playing solid D.  Z would effectively eliminate Burke. 

TrueBlue2003

January 15th, 2019 at 2:11 AM ^

Did it though?

Bama had a much better defense and worse offense than OU, but they won that game.

Clemson had a better defense (2nd in S&P+) and worse (slightly) offense than Bama and they did win the championship.

If you're referring to Michigan, it's not enough just to have a good defense, you actually need to show up and play good defense when it counts.

TrueBlue2003

January 15th, 2019 at 12:07 AM ^

Caris was a little baby deer in 2013.  He wasn't very good.

And I feel like McGary's legend grows by the year.  He was a beast...for like 5 games.  I think I'd take Junior Teske over McGary.  Would be an awesome matchup though, no doubt.

2019's defense is so good, I think that would be the difference.  Teske and Z would do a pretty good job on the pick and roll and 2019 defends threes so well, I don't think Stauskas could get enough open looks and I think Poole would be able to take him one on one.

2013 more talented, but 2019 more experienced and much better defense gives them the edge.

TrueBlue2003

January 15th, 2019 at 1:05 AM ^

I'm comparing starters v starters, but if you want to get J-Mo and the benches involved, I think Livers is better than J-Mo for his defensive versatility and outside shooting.  Love me some J-Mo though.  Slight edge to Livers.  Brooks is probably a better player right now than the freshman combo of Spike/Caris that backed up the guard spots in 2013, mostly because Caris really struggled that year.  Ideally wouldn't have been needed but there was no one else to back up the wings.

Really, this debate all comes down to Burke v Simpson.  Every other matchup save maybe McGary v Teske goes to 2019.

But Burke was so good, if he could remain at his normal level against Simpson, that's would equal everything else out, and probably gives 2013 the edge, but that's a bit much to ask against Simpson. See: Cassius Winston.

Interestingly, the closest player in the big ten to Simpson in the last 10 years is probably Aaron Craft, and Craft we saw Craft play against sophomore Burke twice.  Definitely got the best of him at Columbus by holding him to 15 points on a very inefficient 88 Ortg and the team only scored 53.  Trey still didn't go off at home but was much more efficient for the 2 point victory there.

So my prediction: They each win at home in a two game series.

UMinSF

January 15th, 2019 at 3:38 AM ^

TrueBlue, it seems we're in almost total agreement.

In my mind, I'm imagining a 2013 v. 2019 championship game, not mid-season. If they played at this point, I'd definitely put my money on 2019 - all those freshmen on 2013 improved a lot by tournament time.

2013 was on a roll in the NCAAs, but most of 2019's guys experienced that kind of streak last year too. And both Burke and Poole had a truly heroic moment.

More than any player comp or statistic, this year's team just feels like Beilein's best to me.

They're tough, mature, and play such great D. 2013 had a bunch of talent, but they were young.

JB's offense was more innovative then - the basketball world (outside of EL) has caught up, but in 2013 Beilein's Michigan had a reputation for being amazing on offense but soft and porous on defense. That's certainly not the case now!

Frank Chuck

January 14th, 2019 at 11:27 PM ^

Man, that's a great question. Lots of great hypothetical match-ups:

McGary vs Teske
Burke vs Simpson
Stauskas vs Poole
Robinson vs Brazdeikis
Hardaway vs Matthews

MaizeBlueA2

January 15th, 2019 at 12:21 AM ^

Caris was awful his freshman year. The game was too fast for him.

 

He'd come in for defensive stops and gave up some tough shots in the regular season. By the time the tournament rolled around he settled in a little but it still would be a nice play and then trip over his own feet on the fast break going the other way.

He did get the hand up to send the Kansas game into OT. 

Caris didn't get good until the off-season.

SPIKE was the the 7th man, not Caris. (Morgan or McGary being the 6th).

Stauskas was up and down and he couldn't guard ANYONE to save his life his freshman year...hence the Levert sub.

ak47

January 14th, 2019 at 11:56 PM ^

The 2013 bench is better. Morgan is better than Davis and honestly Horford is probably better too, Levert is better than Livers, and tournament run Spike is better than Eli Brooks. 

Man that 2013 team was so much fun, still can't believe we lost that game. People forget how loaded the big ten was that year too, much better at the top than this years big ten with 4 top 10 teams and five top 20 teams 4 of which made the sweet 16.

TrueBlue2003

January 15th, 2019 at 12:23 AM ^

Are we talking about the 2013 players currently against this 2019 team?

Why does everyone keep talking about Caris?  He looked like a deer (quite literally) in the headlights when he was in the game.  He shot 33% from 2 and 30% from three!  He had an abysmal Ortg of 93.

In meaningful games, he really just came in for some defensive possessions here and there to spell the wings since there wasn't anyone else to spell Stauskas and Hardaway.

He made a huge leap between that year and his sophomore year, but Eli Brooks is a vastly superior player this season to what Caris was in 2013.

MaizeBlueA2

January 15th, 2019 at 12:45 AM ^

There is no way Levert was better than Livers.

Caris was probably the equivalent of Brandon Johns on this team. Shows flashes, a couple of solid games...big sophomore breakout season, HUGE junior year.

Simpson would give Burke trouble but Trey was offensive POY for a reason. We have a GREAT comparison in Aaron Craft (not sure why no one has mentioned that). So we can safely assume Burke would get what he did vs. Craft and maybe vice versa. He'd win some but have to work all game...it would be a battle. 

THJ would struggle offensively vs. Matthews...tough matchup. That said, Poole may start on him. In that case it's kind of Spider-Mans pointing.

I would put Poole on Stauskas...they would both get their shots. Defensively I would put THJ on Poole if Matthews wasn't abusing Stauskas. NO WAY a freshman Stauskas could guard Poole...he was a terrible defender. Levert would have to play quite a bit but Caris was AWFUL offensively in year 1. The matchup with Poole would be interesting.

Iggy vs. GRIII is a push.

Teske would have trouble with the pick and pop vs. J-Mo, but Morgan wouldn't his is putbacks vs. Teske. McGary would be an interesting matchup because he could put it on the floor and he ran the floor better than any big in the country. Huge post advantage 2013 when Teske is on the bench. Hell Max B. may have been better than Davis. Horford definitely was...

Bench, Simpson would have to go the whole game or Spike would torch Brooks. Livers would hold his own vs. GRIII due to his quickness. However he doesn't play in the post so his size wouldn't matter on the offensive end.

I think it would be a very close game. And like many have said...its tough because that 2013 was so high and meh...but when they were on, hoo boy...they were ON.

Regular season give me 2019.

Postseason give me 2013. That postseason team is with 1993 as the best in school history, IMO. But it was the regular season that built that group...the tough losses, Stauskas' legend early, the missed tip-in...the pressure of being #1 in the country. That regular season prepared them for the postseason like nothing I've ever seen.

One more thing to note...that 2013 team never fouled and the 2019 team isn't strong at the line...it would actually help them that they weren't getting to the line.

We need let this bench continue to evolve...if Johns, Brooks and DeJulius grow this year...this is a completely different team.

 

club2230

January 14th, 2019 at 11:38 PM ^

I think the starting 5 of 2019 may be a bit better...a bit.  

Burke edges Simpson, but that would be easily the most tantalizing matchup.

Sophomore Poole is better all around than Freshman Stauskas.

Hardaway plus Robinson are about equal to Matthews plus Brazdekis.  I would give the edge to 2019 because of the shot getting ability.

McGary and Teske are about even.  

 

ak47

January 14th, 2019 at 11:45 PM ^

Hardaway plus Robinson is pretty clearly superior to me than Matthews plus Iggy. Hardaway is the best shot maker and creator of the 4 of them and GRIII is a pretty ideal 3 and d guy with insane athletecism. 

Also McGary and Teske are not about even if you are just talking tournament run McGary in my opinion.

TrueBlue2003

January 15th, 2019 at 12:47 AM ^

I think the 2019 duo is clearly superior.

It's probably better to compare Hardaway to Iggy (shot makers and creators) and Mathews to GR3 (finishers, dunkers, OREB put-back guys, baseline cutters, and NOT good 3pt shooters).

Hardaway and Iggy were both meh defenders.  I'll give them a push there. But Iggy is a much better shot maker and creator than THJ was. 

THJ had a terrible 105 Ortg despite being surrounded by weapons and playing for the number one offense in the country. His shot splits were a mediocre .695/.481/.358 on just 22% usage. I'm actually surprised how mediocre he was as I look back at the numbers.  I thought it might be closer. Huh.

Iggy is better in every category (.771/.526/.385) for an Ortg of 117 PLUS has higher usage (25%).

Matthews is better than freshman GR3 was.  GR3 wasn't at all a 3 and D guy.  In fact, he was bad at both. Charles Matthews is shooting 32.7% from three this year, GR3 shot a blistering...32.4%.  Worse than Matthews! 

They're both excellent finishers in transition, off OREBs, on alley-oops.  The difference is that's all GR3 had to do while playing with Trey Burke so his 2pt% was really high.  GR3's usage was just 15%, way less than Matthews 25%.  Matthews uses all those extra possessions on tough shots, partially his fault for taking bad shots and partially because he has to be the guy to make things happen more often on this team.  So even if you give the offense to GR3, Matthews is so far superior on defense that he's the better player as a senior than GR3 was as a freshman. 

McGreenB

January 14th, 2019 at 11:50 PM ^

2013 wins. Burke was an absolutely transcendent college player. He gets the better of Simpson.

I think McGary and Morgan wear down teske. And the depth in general wear 2019 out. 

2013 had SIX future first round draft picks guys. Two in the top ten.

UMinSF

January 15th, 2019 at 4:06 AM ^

I tend to think 2019 has a slight edge, but you make a good point, McGreenB. 

Teske might be able to get the better of either Morgan or McGary, but rotating them could wear Teske out or get him in foul trouble.

Livers might fare ok when Teske gets a blow; Morgan and McGary were strong but not that tall.

Burke>Simpson, but Poole>>freshman Stauskas.

Frank Chuck

January 15th, 2019 at 4:42 AM ^

I'm not sure I agree that Burke gets the better of Simpson.

Remember last season's National Championship game? Simpson did an excellent job of defending NPotY Jalen Brunson.

One thing to keep in mind is that the 2019 team has an exceptional defense and a very good (and improving offense).

-----

Flip side:

2013 had the deeper bench (Jordan Morgan, Spike Albrecht, Jon Horford, and Caris Levert by the end of season).
 

That said Isaiah Livers and Eli Brooks are quite good. Austin Davis has improved. And I'm hopeful that at least one of Brandon Johns and Colin Castleton will be a contributor Big Ten Tournament time.

Hold This L

January 15th, 2019 at 1:17 PM ^

I know I’m younger than most of the MGoBlog community but Burke was the most dominant college player I’ve seen. I’m not talking about physically imposing like a Zion. I mean his ability to take over a game at both ends was something I hadn’t seen in college basketball. Certainly not from a guy who is barely 6 feet tall. He was the most dangerous player on both ends at all times. I love Simpson but nobody was stopping Burke that year. 

Saludo a los v…

January 15th, 2019 at 12:07 AM ^

The 2013 team was more talented and deeper than this year's team, but it would be a very close game. If it is beginning of 2018 vs. beginning of 2013 I think this year's team wins because the 2013 team did not really become what they would be until late in the season.

rice4114

January 15th, 2019 at 12:58 AM ^

In 10 games I think it would go like this.

2013 wins comfortably in 3 of them

2013 wins a close one

2019 wins the other 6 in tough hard fought lower scoring games (lower for the 2013 team anyway)

I think Trey looked great that year but it makes me wonder how he does against a great team defense lead by Z. I dont think most realize 2013 wasnt a shut down D so this years team wouldnt have too much problem scoring. 

In a one game showdown I have no idea what happens.

UMfan21

January 15th, 2019 at 12:58 AM ^

Burke over Simpson

THJ over Matthews 

Poole and Stauskas are a push

Bradzekis and GRIII are a push

Teske over Morgan

Bench goes to the 2013 team big time.  Spike, McGary, Horford, Levert were all big time.

The only advantage I really see is Teske.  He would shut down Morgan on defense, and mitigate a lot of GRIII.  On offense Teske being a 3 pts threat would pull Morgan out of the paint and get things flowing.

 

Having said that, I think the 2013 team wins.  Higher talent at the guard spots and a more talented AND deeper bench.  Love this years team, but the 2013 team was special.

 

UMinSF

January 15th, 2019 at 1:37 AM ^

My main disagreement UMfan is Poole. He's much better than freshman Stauskas IMO.

I think people are imagining the soph version of Stauskas; in 2013 he was pretty much Just A Shooter, and his footwork on D was atrocious - he pretty much couldn't guard anyone.

Iggy's better than freshman GRIII too.

Watching From Afar

January 15th, 2019 at 11:36 AM ^

My only thought on this is that your matchups might be wrong.

Burke v Simpson (obvious)

THJ v Poole (THJ was the 2 that year IIRC)

Stauskas v Iggy (Stauskas wasn't guarding anyone on this team 1 on 1 so matchups could be different to try and cover him up)

GRIII v Matthews

McGary v Teske (Morgan had more starts but McGary was the starter for the tournament run and got more MPG than Morgan did)

FrozeMangoes

January 15th, 2019 at 1:00 AM ^

I think this is a case where if they play 10 times they go 5-5.  2013 was so streaky, 2019 is steady.  2013 wins on their "on" nights.  2019 wins when 2013 is normal or "off."

I think 2013 had a smidge more talent but I think JB is a slightly better coach now.  

An aside:  I think Poole ends up being the best NBA player out of all of them.  His game is a glove for the NBA.  Iso, ball-handling, and creating his own shot, specifically with the step-back.