How many wins are necessary for RR this year?

Submitted by Firstbase on February 4th, 2010 at 11:07 AM

What do you guys think? How many wins will Michigan need to post to keep RichRod safely as the head coach?

I just spoke with a buddy of mine (who, parenthetically, played for Bo back in the mid '70s as a walk on) and we tend to agree that 8 wins will work, with 7 wins being "borderline."

I not too sure that a 6-win "Chic-fil-A" bowl birth will do much for RR's job security.

Please opine.

Comments

NorthSideBlueFan

February 4th, 2010 at 11:17 AM ^

I believe a bowl should be the goal for this season. 2011 is setting up to be a potential monster year so I think as long as they get to a bowl they will give him 2011 to show what he can do with an older class of his recruits and OSU/ND at home.

MWW6T7

February 4th, 2010 at 12:22 PM ^

My apologies if you took that the wrong way. It did seem a little snippy. It is a good topic for dicussion if you care to do so and everyone has a thought on the idea. It has just been discussed many times and I was hoping we could dwell on the fact that we just had a good nsd with no de-commits and an added suprise for a while before we put one of RR's foot out the door again. No disrespect intended to you or any of these other posts.

WichitanWolverine

February 4th, 2010 at 11:27 AM ^

There are 3 games on the schedule that I would not be overly upset about losing: OSU, PSU, Wisconsin. Well, I get overly upset about any loss, but those are games that don't favor us on paper, IMO.

We can hopefully win the rest. I will throw in an extra loss for a bad day (maybe against Iowa) so that means we should be able to win 8. So my magic number is 8.

Personally, I like these discussions. I mean, what the hell else are we gonna talk about for the next 7 months? I can only handle so many OT posts in a day...

bluebyyou

February 4th, 2010 at 11:28 AM ^

Nothing college football related for a while so I will bite. I don't think simply going to a bowl game will do it, as that implies 6-6. I think a minimum of seven wins is necessary to maintain job security, and nine wins in 2011.

I will get the prozac drip started this Sunday about 10 PM. The long cold winter without football will have officially begun.

Big_G

February 4th, 2010 at 11:30 AM ^

I'd say he has to win a minimum of 7 with a bowl appearance. Looking at the schedule and current statuses of the teams on it, I can envision anywhere from 7-10 wins. I'm thinking an 8-4 season is probable. I'm sure as we get closer to the season we'll probably see some people here come up with probability breakdowns and whatnot on the W/L totals though.

Rasmus

February 4th, 2010 at 11:35 AM ^

Another losing season this year in the Big Ten will hurt, perhaps irreparably, his chances of lasting beyond his fifth year. But it's unlikely to get him fired on the spot. Maybe after a fourth year of losing, then okay, yes -- they might very well pull the plug. But unless there is a mutiny amongst the players, it's not going to happen after only three years, no matter what.

DoubleB

February 4th, 2010 at 11:35 AM ^

is a level of wins that he must reach to keep his job, then the administration should have fired him already. Either let the head coach get a full recruiting class through his system (5 years) or move in a different direction immediately. Is the difference between 7 or 8 wins that great that it should be the demarcation line for firing the guy?

Wolverine In Exile

February 4th, 2010 at 11:35 AM ^

Irrational fans: 12 with the rotting corpses of Dantonio, Tressel, and Kiffin hanging headless from the rafters of the Rose Bowl

Rational fans: 7 going into a bowl game, 6 if we get injury screwed. Anything less will be ground for termination.

Motion to end debate.

His Dudeness

February 4th, 2010 at 11:37 AM ^

Assigning a random number of wins to a random year without taking into consideration any outside factors such as injuries and turnover margin is so fucking stupid. Please discontinue doing so at once. I have an idea; think of a number of wins that would make you happy and then hope for that number, but for fucks fucking sake don't tell anyone about it or it won't come true. Then when it happens take some joy in the fact that you helped it happen by keeping your fucking mouth firmly fucking shut.

Big Boutros

February 4th, 2010 at 11:39 AM ^

I actually don't care anymore. I just want Rich Rod to shit on people. He's shown time and again that he can withstand epic antagonism and I want to be there when he slams a door on the dicks of all of these idiot assholes.

megalomanick

February 4th, 2010 at 12:08 PM ^

Of course I want Rodriguez to win because I love Michigan and he is our coach. More and more though, I'm hoping he succeeds for personal reasons as well. How great would it be if in 2012 he's coming off a 10 or 11 win season and some cock knuckler like Sharp badgers him about a recruit and he can just stand up and say something akin to "You know what asshole? You've tried to bring me down since the day I got here and it didn't work, get the hell out of my press conference." Of course being one of the most public faces of a prestigious university, that would never happen, but the thought of it alone makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.

B

February 4th, 2010 at 11:45 AM ^

If he only wins 7 he may be gone. For those who say he has 5 years, I'll believe it when I see it. If Harbaugh is waiting in the wings, and the administration is afraid they will miss out on him, then I think Rrod could be gone next year unless the team makes significant progress. If Rrod wins 8+ games, he will have cemented his position for another year (but not completely since a let down in the fourth year would again make him vulnerable). Personally, I am optimistic that Michigan will win at least 8 games next year with some many returning players and more familiarity with the system, but I think there is no question that Rrod could definitely be fired after this season is things don't start to come together.

Rasmus

February 4th, 2010 at 12:18 PM ^

Why would Harbaugh come to Michigan if he knew they would fire him after three years with a record very similar to what he has now at Stanford? [He was 4-8 and 5-7 in his first two seasons, and only 8-5 last year.]

If Michigan fires Rich after three years, they take a lot of top-tier coaches off the table in their search for a replacement. Plus, they make it that much harder to negotiate a contract with anyone who is willing to talk to them. It's institutional suicide.

evenyoubrutus

February 4th, 2010 at 11:59 AM ^

It doesn't matter. It will never shut everyone up. Brian mentioned on this blog a while back that all of the last 5 coaches who have won national titles have a website devoted to their firing (Urban Meyer, Les Miles, Mack Brown, Pete Caroll, Jim Tressel). They will always exist. All we can do is try to be as vocal as possible about our support of him.

Edit: on the other hand I think MSC is behind him all the way. He doesn't need to worry about his job-security.

Maize and Blue…

February 4th, 2010 at 12:08 PM ^

he was more concerned with the direction than the win total. I have to believe that the talent level and team speed is improving and the team is still quite young. On top of that the players are doing well in the classroom.
Reality is that the last two years amounted to a perfect storm. Year 1 for RR presented 7 players back on D (though not all bought in), new schemes on both sides of the ball, and nothing on O. Year 2 presented little back on D, a third D scheme in 3 years, a mostly returning O with a true freshman QB. Throw in the starting center going down in game three, the QB getting hurt in game 4, but gutting the season out and your SR. RBs missing most of the season put it all together and you have a recipe for two bad years. That also doesn't mention all the attrition.
On the bright side the roster is filling with RR recruits, the D will actually be in the same system for a second year, and there are a lot of returning starters and RS that have been in the system. If we can get some of the young guys (Campbell, Turner, a LB candidate) to step up and get contributions from a couple recruits I expect the D to be better even with the loss of BG.

dollarbill

February 4th, 2010 at 12:13 PM ^

I like RR and believe he will succeed. However, it is time for a winning record, which means no worse than 7-6. This would require a bowl bid at 6-6 and a bowl win, or finishing the regular season at 7-5 or better. As I am writing this, I cannot believe my expectations for UM football have fallen this far.

a2bluefan

February 4th, 2010 at 12:18 PM ^

I think if we go 6-6 or worse, he's probably gone.

That said, I also have a fear that he's gone at the end of his contract, even if he starts winning. I imagine there's a big part of him that desperately wants to prove to the haters that he can succeed. When he does, some of those haters will no longer hate and will jump right on the bandwagon. But a lot of them will still remain, just because they don't like the guy. When he succeeds and the offers start rolling in from the SEC, unless he has developed an extraordinary love for Michigan, he will leave. Wouldn't you?

Of course, I hope none of this comes to pass.

QVIST

February 4th, 2010 at 12:17 PM ^

The wins should come very soon, because I could see quite a few players from Michigan's current roster being drafted if they keep developing a little bit more each year. I think it's completely the system (offense and defense) and injuries that have been holding this team back at this point, not really the players (except maybe at DB and C). Once everyone gets a full grasp on everything, this team has the athletes to burn just about any team.

maznbluwolverine

February 4th, 2010 at 12:30 PM ^

4 years, if not 5 to see if he can turn this around. 2011 will really tell because he'll have had 4 recruiting classes and most of his top players will be juniors. This year will be tough as the Big Ten has 4 teams in the top 12. I think next year tells the whole thing, one way or the other.

Jehu the Damaja

February 4th, 2010 at 12:35 PM ^

I think he should be back for year 4 no matter what. Year one was like wallkng into a death trap, i dont think any coach could have gotten more than 3 wins with our insufficient talent on both sides of the ball.

IMO he should get at least 4-5 years regardless of how the upcoming season goes, but as we know Michigan fans arent exactly the most patient when it comes to the success of the football team

switch26

February 4th, 2010 at 12:42 PM ^

I believe with the talent level they have coming back this year they should win 8 with a chance at more. Regardless of wins I think it would be retarded for michigan to fire RR after this year. Then what the hell are we gonna do if we hire a pro style offensive coach again? Have a boatload of transfers and start all over again? Michigan knew what they got into hiring RR, he would change everything and i couldn't imagine they thought all these pro style kid's would stick around. It is like the rivals commentator said yesterday, it's not like there is a magic wand you wave and all of the sudden we have a full team of spread players. It is going to take time.

If they fix all the Turnovers from Tate and denard, who accounted for half of our turnovers last year, i think we will win several more games. I also think Fitz toussaint will be the next great michigan running back.

Don

February 4th, 2010 at 1:28 PM ^

Regardless what the won-loss record is, if we lose to MSU and OSU again, people are going to be calling for his neck.

If it's 5-7 again, victories over MSU and OSU might be the only thing that keeps Brandon from making a change.

If we go 6-6 with losses to ND, MSU, and OSU, and then lose a bowl game, the heat will be up pretty high. I don't think that necessarily means he should be let go, but let's face it: the fan base would be in full pitchforks mode, and the pressure on Brandon to make a switch will be intense.

If we go 6-6 or better with wins against MSU, and OSU, I think he's safe for at least another year, regardless what happens in the bowl game.

brianshall

February 4th, 2010 at 2:24 PM ^

As I've said many times already, it's 7 or out. 15 wins in 3 years -- at MICHIGAN -- is embarrassing.

This is a good thing.

Just like it would be silly for Florida to adopt, say, a Wisconsin style of play, for Michigan to adopt an SEC style of play only guarantees forever that we'll finish second to the SEC champ. Not what I want.

Sextus Empiricus

February 4th, 2010 at 3:14 PM ^

The wins will come with the quality of play. RR should get 5 years w/o this thread coming up again and again. Hiring a new coach is a huge deal. It's like starting a freshman QB all over again...noooooo! Brandon doesn't want to go there IMO when RR hasn't done much to complain about other than work hard.

The defense still has a lot to (im)prove before I would lay expectations at RR's feet.