How important is this game for Harbaugh/UM?

Submitted by goblue4321 on October 17th, 2018 at 12:13 PM

I feel this msu game is the most important game on michigans schedule this year, more important than osu actually. I feel it is an absolute must win for harbaugh. he has the more talented team and that needs to come up with a win Saturday. I think for recruiting purposes and state of the program that Michigan has to win this game, if they don't I feel that it will be a huge set back for the program and could create a down fall for the rest of year. I don't care win by 1 or 30, need to win. I think a win, Michigan goes 10-1 to osu, lose and I could see 8-4. 

Whats everybody think? 

UMForLife

October 17th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^

I bet you there will be another thread like this before PSU. Just for argument sake if we lose this game and we win out and OSU win every game except ours, I believe we would be in the B1G championship. So, this is not the biggest game on the schedule. Having said that, I definitely want them to win and shut their pie hole for good. 

Leaders And Best

October 17th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^

No offense to the OP, but are we going to have a post about this every week?

Last week: https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/wisconsin-game-most-important-harbaugh-era

Two weeks from now: Will the PSU game define Harbaugh's legacy?

Rivalry games are important. Winning this game goes a long way toward winning the division, but Michigan can still win the division and the Big Ten with a loss so it is not more important than OSU at this time. Leave the rest of your feelings out of it.

Michigan Manders

October 17th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^

Other than the obvious rivalry and "HARBAUGH CAN'T WIN BIG GAMES"/"NO RANKED ROAD WINS SINCE 132 BC" sample size memes I don't see all that much importance to this game.

It's a rivalry game, so just can't be surprised by pretty much anything that happens. But I don't think recruits will stake their choice of college on a single midseason road game just because of #takes.

In the event of a loss we likely have to win out to get to the B1G CCG; if we win we preserve having a 1 game buffer (so long as that 1 loss isn't to OSU). Regardless of win or lose a B1G championship is still very much in play.

jgoblue11

October 17th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^

When you are ranked near the top 5, every single game you play is important. Most people want to hear that this is Harbaugh's most important game, because it's against State.

Every single game, including our biggest rival Rutgers is important to our head coach. If we win out, we are in. If we win out, it shows such a huge improvement by this coaching staff since the Notre dame road loss. 

This is a rivalry road game, against a struggling MSU team that just beat a struggling Penn State team. Patterson is going to be ready. Our players are going to be ready. Coach Harbaugh is already ready. This game is huge. 

We are going to roll. We have too much on defense for MSU to handle. Rivalry or not, we are going to roll. 

35-17 Michigan.

Then Penn State will be Harbaughs most important game.

ijohnb

October 17th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^

I don't disagree with your overall take, but Penn State wasn't "struggling" until Michigan State beat them.  I want to point this out because other people do that to Michigan.  We beat a team and then people take into account their loss to us in that game to conclude that said team was "not good" anyway.  It is a trick that I am kind of sick of people playing so I want to point it out.  PSU lost a heartbreaker to OSU was by no means "struggling."

ijohnb

October 17th, 2018 at 3:41 PM ^

When you go down this road, the "Valenti" road I will call it, you end up kind of arguing that nobody is good except for Alabama.  Penn State had not lost except to Ohio State, which was a really competitive game.  While they had played a close game against App. St., they by and large had been blowing out other opponents.  I don't think it is fair to say that Michigan State beat a bad or struggling Penn State team, they were 4-1 and lost their only game really close to a really good team.

unWavering

October 17th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^

No. 

1) it's not OSU

2) if we lose, we aren't dead in the water in the division. MSU will drop at least one more game (OSU), meaning UM would still have control of its own destiny.

Easy as that. 

Don

October 17th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^

"Harbaugh has the more talented team."

I realize that recruiting rankings aren't the only measure of talent, but FWIW, Michigan has had a higher-ranked recruiting class than MSU every year since 2006, with one exception in 2015. In six of those years, Michigan had classes ranked 20 or 30 spots higher than MSU's.

Whether this is a testament to vastly overrated Michigan classes or Dantonio's superior ability to maximize what he's got to work with, or both, is open to question.

evenyoubrutus

October 17th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^

Michigan's classes aren't overrated. But it is hard for a 4 star player to make an impact when he's not on the team. Michigan has had a combination of shitty coaching and attrition for years, and they're probably related. But those two things together are a big reason Dantonio is 8-3. He's done a fine job, no doubt. His game planning and preparation are elite. But he's been helped immensely by Michigan's self inflicted problems.

In theory, having Harbaugh, along with a veteran team, should mitigate that. I guess we'll see.

Denard P. Woodson

October 17th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^

Actually, it probably doesn't mean as much as everyone seems to think. 

If you assume that OSU will beat MSU, then both PSU and MSU would have at least 2 Big 10 losses. 

As such, Michigan can loose to either MSU or PSU, and still win the Big 10 championship.

In all likelihood Michigan HAS TO BEAT OSU to win the Big 10, but they can probably drop any other game and still make it.

I know, I know, rivalry and recruiting and all that, but if Michigan looses to MSU, runs the table, beats OSU and finishes 11-2 with Big 10 Championship Game and Rose Bowl victories, I think we would all think it was a great season.

I know everyone likes to over stress every game, but Michigan could still loose 1 more game and have a great season, providing that loss isn't to OSU.

mgobaran

October 17th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^

I think it's a nice win if we win. MSU will be a 4-3 team with a couple losses to bad teams, and close games to bad teams. They will no longer be ranked (so is it really a win over a ranked team on the road?).

I think it's a huge loss if we lose. 

 

mgobaran

October 17th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^

I just think it's ridiculous that it's supposed to elevate the hype of this game since they are ranked 24th. Had they been ranked 26th this week, would this game mean less? Had they lost to PSU, would this game mean less? If MSU loses to Michigan and every single game down the stretch, does this game mean less?

stephenrjking

October 17th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^

The answer is OSU. The answer is always OSU. The answer is especially OSU this year. 

It's not really difficult to come to this conclusion, but here's a thought experiment for those who might question it:

Suppose we lose one more game this season, only, and the loss is to either MSU or OSU.

Which scenario is better?

Is it: A. Michigan wins this Saturday against a pretty mediocre MSU team. They get by Penn State. They go to OSU with the B1G championship game and possible playoff berth on the line, and lose. Again. Recruits on the fence see that Michigan still can't quite get over the hump. Michigan goes to a BCS type bowl. Not a bad season, not great.

Or: B. Michigan loses Saturday. MSU taunts continue. There are hot takes about Harbaugh not winning the big games, not winning on the road, etc. Fans are miserable, and it's a bye week, so two weeks of misery. But a win over PSU mollifies things a bit, and Michigan goes into a big game against OSU with the B1G championship game on the line and OSU heading toward the playoffs... and wins on the road, putting all of the bad narratives to death all at once and announcing Michigan as a nationally elite team. Michigan then goes into the B1G championship game and is still technically alive for a playoff berth which they probably don't get.

I prefer scenario C, where Michigan wins all of the rest of its games. But between A and B, I take B every time.

ScooterTooter

October 17th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^

You'll get some snark, but I agree with you (up until the Penn State game and then the Ohio State game). 

Michigan needs to re-establish itself as the top program in the state. They can also end the incredibly dumb "haven't beaten a ranked team on the road" narrative. ALSO, this year is pretty crucial to Harbaugh's stability here, so winning at least the division and beating MSU & OSU are even more important than usual. If the season bombs out with losses to both rivals, rumblings (fair or not, realistic or not) are going to begin, which will affect recruiting, transfers, coaching hires, etc.

Honestly, its gotta kill Harbaugh that two plays have him in this position where this year has so much pressure. If Blake O'Neill catches that snap in 2015 and if JT Barrett is stopped 6 inches shorter (and maybe he was), Michigan is right on track and back as a power. 

carolina blue

October 17th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^

Dear God, please stop. The media and portions of the fan base will lose their minds if we lose and say last week was a facade. It will also sit for two weeks since we have a bye. As long as OSU beats sparty then it doesn’t matter, we will still have a shot at the Big Title. The only reason this game is so critical is because it’s on the road, against a rival, against a ranked team. It is only critical in that it will shut some people up if we win and continue our playoff hopes. 

Perkis-Size Me

October 17th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^

This isn't as big as the 2016 OSU game was so I won't say its the most important game of Harbaugh's tenure, but it's probably #2. This is to re-claim the state, your program's respect, and perhaps most importantly, prove that your team can win "the big game." Especially one that's on the road. Harbaugh's had four years here to get his program up and running. I love what I've seen over the last six weeks, but it's time to put up or shut up against Dantonio. 

If Michigan wins this game: Harbaugh has got his team riding high on a seven game winning streak, heading into a critical, perfectly well-timed bye week to prepare for a Penn State team that may have already decided its season is over. Everyone on this team will remember last year's embarrassment against them and will be foaming at the mouth to take their anger out on McSorely and Co. Not that I think Penn State will be a pushover as there is a ton of talent there, but if we're fortunate enough to win on Saturday, I truly believe we will be 10-1 heading into Columbus in a winner-take-all game. And given how sloppy OSU has looked the past few weeks, I like our chances in that game much more now than I did at the beginning of the season. In this situation, whoever wins that game is almost guaranteed to be heading to the playoff. If Harbaugh wins on Saturday, he quiets a lot of his critics. 

If Michigan loses this game: might as well book your hotel rooms in Tampa or San Diego because we're not doing any better than the Outback Bowl or Holiday Bowl. You can forget about playoffs, Rose Bowls, playing for anything other than pride or spoiler against OSU. I know we'd only be 6-2, but all the momentum that you gained over the last six weeks, all the wind in your sails: all of that is gone if you lose on Saturday. Even with the OL progression, the only storyline on Sunday morning (and the rest of the season) would be "So what? Harbaugh STILL can't win the big game." If we lose on Saturday, we finish the regular season no better than 9-3. Maybe even 8-4 if we come into the Penn State game still reeling from MSU. 

Sione For Prez

October 17th, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^

I'm all for killing narratives and beating rivals. But the number one thing I want to end is the Big Ten Championship drought. Beating MSU is more important for that than beating Penn State. PSU already has 2 B1G losses wheras MSU only has 1. Even if we slip up against a very talented Penn State team after beating MSU we go into the Shoe with a trip to Indy on the line assuming no dumb losses to Indiana or Rutgers (lol).

Wolverine91

October 17th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^

Yes by far. I'm sick of losing to these bastards and seeing that ugly dirty smurk on dantonios face every time he wins 

PunchTheKeys

October 17th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^

Extremely. Gets Harbaugh back on the board in these rivalry games so that narrative can die down some. It's also integral to our playoff chances to win out. We can get along with a loss and still win the B10 but no shot at anything outside of that. To me every game left on our schedule is extremely important, this team is special and capable of doing special things, any slip up will make this another 2016. Loads of potential but only decent results with no championships.