How do you think this season's success will affect draft decisions?

Submitted by canzior on July 23rd, 2018 at 10:11 AM

Just curious to wonder which of the potential NFL draft decisions could be based on team success, ie a dissappointing season pushes guys to leave...or return for the ever popular "unfinished business."  Do you think a 9 win season, vs a Big 10 title/playoff semifinal loss vs a National title yields different results? 

Comments

Hotel Putingrad

July 23rd, 2018 at 10:19 AM ^

I think Shea comes back even after their undefeated national championship season, to get the Heisman he narrowly loses to Love in the closest vote ever. Gary, however, is a goner.

tasnyder01

July 23rd, 2018 at 5:38 PM ^

  -->    THE MEANING OF "APPROXIMATELY"  -->

                                    __________          "WHOOOOOSH"

                                (    ( - )    ( - )     )         

    YOU -->             (            /_             )

                                (     \______/   )

                             ______/       \ _______

evenyoubrutus

July 23rd, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^

Patterson and Gary are gone. Hill and Long will have decisions to make. I'm curious to see what Devin Bush does because I have a feeling that a lot of the "experts" will claim he is undersized. 

As I think about this, I realize that even in the worst case scenario that Michigan loses 5 or 6 guys to the NFL, we should have plenty of talent to steal into their shoes in 2019. 

Watching From Afar

July 23rd, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^

At this point, especially with Brown, the defense reloads rather than rebuilds.

Losing Hudson, Hill, Long, Bush, and Gary early would suck, but most of those positions have guys that we can reasonably projected to step in and be effective.

Singleton/Ross/Anthony/McGrone at LB.

Thomas/Sims at CB (though the group behind them is hard to project)

Viper would be a little troublesome without an heir apparent to Hudson, but I'm sure Brown can make someone on the roster at least B/B+.

DE will have to replace both spots, but Hutchinson/Paye/Vilain/the 2019 guys all have the potential to be good.

maizenblue92

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^

I have bad news about the 'Devin Bush is undersized' narrative we are hoping for so he returns. Right now he is a projected first round pick. Khaleke Hudson is also a guy that is a fringe first round pick right now. This has to be a big year because this defense is realistically losing Gary, Winovich, Bush, Hudson, at least one of Hill/Long and Kinnel, as well as Watson and Furbush, both of whom are good depth pieces.

evenyoubrutus

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^

Like I said, even in the worst case scenario, we have tons of talent to replace all the guys you just mentioned. This defense is probably going to be top 3 this year. A step back is unavoidable. But they will almost certainly still be a top 10 defense going into 2019 unless something catastrophic happens.

maizenblue92

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^

This is true. But, I could see a big fall to 15-20 as worst case in 2019. Because Bill C's numbers say the secondary is the most difficult thing to replace, potentially losing Hill, Long, Watson, Kinnel, and Hudson would be basically the whole secondary. JKP and Thomas are the only pieces that would fill in pretty seamlessly before you get to questions and depth concerns. Losing dynamic pass rushers like Winovich and Gary without proven replacement options would exacerbate that issue. It's kind of like the John Beilein Paradox where the defense plays too well for its own good and nobody starts more than a couple years before they're off to the NFL.

evenyoubrutus

July 23rd, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^

I suppose it's a little premature at this point, but a lot can happen in a single season and I've been assuming that we will see a lot of Myles Sims, J'Marick Woods and Brad Hawkins to help calm our worries. And they signed three other DBs in the 2018 class, along with St. Juste in 2017. That's a lot of guys. It's hard to know if they'll be quite as talented as the current group but depth shouldn't be an issue at least.

DeepBlueC

July 23rd, 2018 at 6:56 PM ^

Why is everybody saying "bon voyage" to Patterson, when he hasn't played a down for us yet?  It's not like he was a world beater last year, and he's coming into an offense with no other elite players and an Oline that's still shaky.  

Gary will probably bolt, despite being less than elite so far.  Bush IS undersized, and will drop in the draft because of it, but it's not like he's likely to grow 3 or 4 inches if he stays for his senior year. 

DrMantisToboggan

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^

Starters who run out of eligibility: Higdon, Perry, Juwan Bushell-Beatty, Winovich, Kinnel

 

Starters who will definitely forego additional eligibility: Gary, Shea, Gentry.

 

Starters who will have decisions to make: Bush, Hudson, Long, Hill.

 

I hope we can return 1 or 2 from the latter group. In 2019, we will look a lot like Wisconsin looks like this year, with nearly everyone back on offense, but a lot of replacements on defense.

DrMantisToboggan

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^

Because he's the ideal modern NFL TE prospect, was basically uncoverable last year, and now has a QB that hits those 15-25 yard throws to the TE really well, which will make him a Mackey Finalist. I think he's going to get a top 3 TE grade in the draft and have little room to improve his stock, so he goes.

I'm projecting a bit, but I think he's having the year that you really need to seize on and enter the draft after. He can be the next Gronk in the way that he's got the size of a small OT with the athleticism of a WR, and you can play in the slot or on the line. He's a better blocker than Gesicki, who went in the 2nd round this last year. I think Gentry goes right around 32nd in next year's draft.

DrMantisToboggan

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^

And I should add to the "Gronk" comparison that there is a certain NFL team with an aging legend at QB and a great TE that is considering retirement that uses multiple TEs a lot and will most likely have one of the last few picks in the first round. Am I letting my Michigan bias and my desire to see Gentry in a Pats uniform cloud my judgment? Maybe.

FatGuyTouchdown

July 23rd, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^

Bush's size isn't as important as it would have been 5-10 years ago. He's a thick body that lacks a bit of height, but what he lacks in height, he makes up for in speed, awareness, toughness, tackling, and coverage skills. None of the inside linebackers taken in the first round the last couple years are more than an inch or two taller than Bush. If he's a legit 5'11, then I don't see size holding him back. If he's a roster 5'11, then it could potentially be an issue. The NFL is moving more sideline to sideline and less tackle to tackle, which is a change that would cause Bush to thrive.

evenyoubrutus

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^

I mostly agree (although the Gentry thing is strange) but I will say that there's a difference between a new starter and a new face. With how much Michigan subs on defense, whoever the corners and safeties are will already have quite a bit of experience. And our linebacker class in 2017 was ridiculously good, and with McGrone also coming in, we should have very good talent and depth there too.

DrMantisToboggan

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^

No, I agree, there's certainly a difference between starting a true freshman and starting a true junior who just hasn't cracked the starting lineup yet. I don't mind the notion of McGrone/Singleton taking over for Bush. The position that does scare me for 2019 is corner. If we lose both Hill and Long, in addition to Watson, the only returning corner from our top four this year will be Ambry. We need Myles Sims to get some playing time this year and get some weight on him as well. If one of Long and Hill don't go pro I'll feel fine.

FatGuyTouchdown

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^

I would put Hill in the almost definitely declaring group. I agree with you that Shea and Gary are 100% outta here barring something incredibly unexpected. I don't have any info on Gentry, but I feel like you are connected/have a feel on the program so I'm willing to take your word on that. Hudson will be back barring an absolute freak of a season.

DrMantisToboggan

July 23rd, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^

I admit that I am projecting some on Gentry's upcoming season, but if there's one player I have a "gut feeling" will have a huge year, it's him. He was almost always open last year, he's already led the team in yards per reception, he's added 15 pounds of muscle this offseason and kept his speed, we added Shea which will boost Gentry's numbers...I just think all signs point to him being a force and a first round-ish type at TE.

DrMantisToboggan

July 23rd, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^

Sort of, yeah. I don't know anybody close to Gentry that has heard that Gentry wants to go after this year. I'm basing it off the knowledge of his physical development under Herbert, how he played last year, and how I think he will continue and build upon that play this year with Shea, development of Black/DPJ, etc. 

ldevon1

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^

Kind weird question without knowing how each individual would perform. I think every kid has to do what's best for them and their families. 

Guy Fawkes

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^

The best way to do this is assume that everyone is leaving, then IF they come back it's a awesome surprise. 

For real though, I do think Gary, Bush, Hill, and Long are gone assuming they put up similar numbers to last season. Hudson we have a shot at keeping because his position isn't translating to the NFL yet. Also, don't forget about Bredeson, he's also on the list of lineman capable of making a jump. 

 

Wolverine 73

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:43 AM ^

Other than the overwhelming likelihood Gary leaves, there is no way to know who else may forego his final season.  Depends on how they perform, injuries, NFL ratings, the rise or fall of others at their positions.  I mean, why would Patterson leave if it developed there were six QBs rated above him?  It would make sense to return and polish his game and move up in rankings.  It is certain some of the guys mentioned will go, but we can’t know which of them until we watch the season play out.  

Wolverine91

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^

How about we worry about winning first and rooting for our team. We're 0-15 against ranked teams on the road in the past 10 years so let's see how we do against the 3 rivals on the road... then we talk about draft

Perkis-Size Me

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^

Gary is gone after this season. G-O-N-E. He's already being projected as a top-10 pick, and with a strong season could be in the top-5. Only reason he stays is if he gets injured and his stock tumbles to a point that forces him to stay. But even then he may still leave and take his chances. NO ONE should expect him to be suiting up for Michigan in 2019. 

Patterson is almost certainly gone too, unless he never actually starts and just rides the bench all season. Which I don't see happening. He's pretty much already come out and said he wants to be in the NFL next year. And with next year's NFL QB rookie class looking nowhere near as good as this year's, all he's got to do is deliver on maybe half of the hype around him and he can work into the first round. If he delivers on all of it, he's the first QB off the board next spring.  

Those are the only two non-graduating guys who I can say will definitely be gone after 2018. Bush will probably be gone too if he builds on what he did last year. Could work his way into the first or second round. Hill and Long.....who knows? 

Honestly, if the team beats OSU this year, I almost wouldn't care if every draft-eligible player decided to go ahead and declare after season. That's how much we as a program need that win. 

MGoStrength

July 23rd, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^

IMHO It won't.  Gary is gone, but Bush & Hudson will stay.  Patterson's decision will be based on his projection.  If he is projected as a round 1-2 pick, he'll go.  If he's projected lower, he may return, but it seems he's leaning to the NFL.  Hill & Long are 50/50 and their decisions will be based on personality rather than UM's W/L record.