Hollinger's Expected PER of NBA rookies and how it relates to Manny Fresh
Article (behind paywall):
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2010/insider/columns/story?columnis…
Basically every year Hollinger does this where he projects how "good" rookies will be based on:
"Regression analysis that compares college performance using 27 different variables, from the obvious (age, height, likely pro position) to the obscure (say, 3-point attempts per field goal attempt)."
The top five are predictable (Wall, Turner, Cousins, Favors, Monroe but not in that order).
HOWEVER, the big news? Manny Harris comes in at 18, with a projected PER of 11.80.
Just thought I'd like to share that. Hopefully this article hits some NBA GM's desks this afternoon...
Not sure if this will pan out for manny only because the kid isn't consistent.. he would go 18 if he could come out every night and do his thing but he just isn't able to or we would have won a ton more game .. i this manny will go as the 32 pick .. i'm not trying to dis on him or anything because i love watching him and think he will do great things but he needed to stay one more year
I don't think anyone on this board would consider 32 a "dis".
In every mock draft I've seen, Manny hasn't been that high. So to see something where he was ranked 18th was a quite a shocker to me.
I just hope it improves his draft stock a little.
I think Manny would be thrilled going as the 32nd pick. And he should be.
I'm not sure if Manny ever succeeds in the NBA. I don't like his release point on his jumper. It's too low and too far out in front. I think leaguers will be able to give his shot too much trouble. Not even sure another year at UM would have fixed this. Just my opinion.
Ugly release point + athletic goodness can still add up to a lot of productive minutes.
Or Shawn Marion who has one of the ugliest shots I've ever seen.
Ron Artest as well....
Might not be NBa long term, might be, but he will be fine.
If an NBA GM is actually using this article to "scout" talent then he should resign immediately.
I wish the best to Manny. I don't think another year would have done much for him. If anything, he probably stayed a year too long.
I think you're mistaken.
If you think that there hasn't been a statistical revolution in front offices around the NBA, you are fooling yourself.
I would lay $100 that says the following happened within the past two days in NBA front offices:
Lower Level Employee: "Hey boss did you see that PER article Hollinger did about all the incoming draft prospects?"
GM: "No, show it to me"
[shows it to boss]
[two hours later]
GM: "Can we do something similar to this, except for our categories, I want 50 and here are some that I want to see" etc. etc.
I mean, what do you think 90% of front offices are doing right now? Prepping for two things - the draft and free agency. I guarantee you articles like Hollinger's make it to GMs desks around the league.
I've seen in most mock drafts he is going in the middle of the second round. I don't know if he will ever succeed in the NBA but I wish him the best.