Hokexpectations?

Submitted by HAIL 2 VICTORS on January 13th, 2011 at 4:55 PM

Brian had mentioned somewhere in his rant that considering what RR has built and left in the cupboard that Hoke could likely go 9-3 (9-4 or 10-3 after Bowl) and look like our version of Ty Willingham first year genius.  So how would 9-3 break down exactly?  I have what I see as the W's and the likely percentages of getting that W (the percentage of pulling off the upset next too the L's) as follows. 

9-4/10-3 IMO would be quite a season even considering the ease of the 2011 schedule.  With Denard a more fair expectation seems to be along the lines of 8-5/7-6

September 3 Western Michigan   W     99%  
September 10 Notre Dame W 55%       
September 17 Eastern Michigan W 99%  
September 24 San Diego Stat W 75%  
October 1 Minnesota W 95%  
October 8 @ Northwestern W 60%  
October 15 @ Michigan State L 33%  
October 29 Purdue W 90%  
November 5 @ Iowa L 40%  
November 12 @ Illinois W 65%  
November 19 Nebraska L 33%  
November 26 Ohio State L 15%

Comments

shorts

January 13th, 2011 at 5:13 PM ^

Iowa will be pretty interesting next year. No Stanzi, no running backs except Marcus Coker (who did look good in the Insight Bowl), no Johnson-Koulianos, no Clayborn, no Sash ... and those are just the standouts. There are a handful of other starters graduating, too, like Klug and a couple offensive linemen (can't remember which ones and don't feel like looking it up).

That's a lot of good players lost on both sides of the ball, not to mention a lot of leadership.

Hardware Sushi

January 13th, 2011 at 7:16 PM ^

I think ND will be better than both Iowa and MSU next season. They really put it together once Rees came in - beating a decent Utah and Miami convincingly, as well as won a close one against USC - putting together four straight wins. Their defensive play was the most surprising thing to me, locking down Utah and Army to 3 points and USC and Miami to 16 and 17, respectively.

MSU loses it's LB core, best CB (although he was out some of the season), most of its not-that-great o-line, Mark Dell, and it's offensive coordinator. Iowa has already been ravaged by Angry Iowa Hating Bad Decision God and sent some of their players packing, lose 4 starter or part-time starting o-linemen, starting QB, their best 2 d-linemen, half of their secondary and their running back has proven himself to be good for one game - it doesn't matter anyway, he'll tear an ACL in August.

I don't know pretend to know how these games will turn out next season. We have a totally new coaching staff but return much more of our team's contributors. I think we get a little better, ND improves a little more than we do (staff continuity...), and MSU and Iowa are a decent amount worse than this season.

mgoSk

January 13th, 2011 at 5:16 PM ^

I agree, however ND is a home game and the Iowa game is away. So I'd say 55% is fair for ND given the fact that they're on the rise and that we've beat them two years in a row. As for Iowa, I'd put them at 50% for now, but I could definitely see them becoming a disappointment next year, losing Stanzi, Clayborn, Hampton, DJK, SASH, etc. I see Michigan, NW, and PSU all improving this coming year while MSU, Wiscy, Iowa, and OSU (suspension dependent to an extent) having setbacks in terms of win total and/or overall talent level. Depending on how things work out offensively, the only facet of UM's game that could take a step backward, the potential is there for this team to make a decent run.

maizedandconfused

January 13th, 2011 at 5:29 PM ^

the year of experience, its the year in the weight room for kids that stepped from the summer swimming pool to the gridiron and B10 play and started. 

Not doubting the freshman were in shape, but a strength and conditioning programs at B10 universities can take a 180lb freshman and strap on 10-15 lbs of muscle.  

Take that along with knowing the speed of the game (hardest part is adjusting to how fast everyone is/things move) will probably do some great things for some of our extremely athletic defensive young ones. 

dennisblundon

January 13th, 2011 at 5:31 PM ^

More than you can imagine. A year of maturity for an 18 year old kid is pretty dramatic, especially with a year or better of proper training. I started as a freshman in college, and it was not in the Big ten, the following year was much easier. For one you know what to expect as well as what is expected of you. The players have had a year to gauge themselves against competition that is better than them for the first time in their careers. This should drive them to train harder than ever before. You should look for a big jump in performance on the field next year in my opinion.

Milty87

January 13th, 2011 at 5:05 PM ^

Given that 2011 will be a transition year, I think your point that a "more fair expectation seems to be along the lines of 8-5/7-6" is correct.

kevin holt

January 13th, 2011 at 5:38 PM ^

I would have spelled it Hoxpectations, but now that I see it, that would be harder to understand without the actual name being spelled out.

Yours is better, even though technically that would produce a sound between the k and s, like Ho-ke-spec-/ho-ka-spec-, and mine would be Hock-spec. If we are being technical, it would have to be spelled Hoakspectations or Hoaxpectations in order to retain the pronunciation, which would then be different from having "Hoke" in the word. So again, because we can suspend the rules a bit for punnery, yours is still the best.

shorts

January 13th, 2011 at 5:13 PM ^

I think your percentages are a bit extreme -- for example, if we're THAT much better than decent teams like San Diego State and Northwestern and we're sitting at 8-2 going into the Nebraska game at home, I'll feel like there's better than a 33% chance of winning. Same with MSU even though it's on the road.

And even the optimist in me feels like there's more than a 1% chance that we lose to Western.

Overall, though, I think your win/loss projection is pretty reasonable; 8-4 is a fair expectation, and anything less will be fairly disappointing since it will mean no improvement despite a more experienced team and an easier schedule.

GoBlueInNYC

January 13th, 2011 at 5:09 PM ^

My gut tells me that State and Iowa will definitely be winnable next season. Plus, I'm not sold on how good Nebraska will be. They had moments of awesome mixed with a fair amount of last year's relative mediocrity. Of course, with Martinez coming back, they could easily replicate the good moments more consistently.

BlueDragon

January 13th, 2011 at 7:38 PM ^

Nebraska is still a question mark.  They have flashes of brilliance but they are also entirely capable of lying down and playing dead.  We're at home next year so it's probably a coin flip if M has some momentum coming into the game.  Nebraska had a lot of trouble with injuries last year so that probably skews the data a bit.

ytMSU and Iowa are definitely winnable, again, if we have momentum.  No matter how bad the end of the 2010 season was, we managed to win all our body-bag OOC games for the first time since 2006.  Definitely a good sign.  ND is the early test, as usual, but the home night game environment will give us a good home-field advantage (I hope).  Should be a better season then the last one.  I'm calling 8 or 9 wins.

labattsblue

January 13th, 2011 at 5:16 PM ^

and DB is an A-hole , his arrogance is beyond reproach.  At this stage BH is DB's puppet and his hands will be tied. Until DB steps aside, let's his coach's coach, and removes himself from the everyday operation of the football program BH will continue to look like a little frightened boy.  I am sure he is a nice guy, I wish him much success.

Great, another tear shedding coach.  Did Bo ever cry?  What ever happened to the aggressive, testosterone sweating coach of yesteryear? BTW let's all unite on this, as a family let's say DB is a A-hole.  Thanks for letting me vent, nothing but positive karma from here on out. 

 

BlueDragon

January 13th, 2011 at 7:40 PM ^

He may be a jerk, but he's our jerk.  Michigan AD was the fourth-most profitable last year.  That's a good sign for the future.  Of course, the faux search shows that DB is willing and capable of throwing the fans under the bus to advance his own agenda and placate the hard-line conservative elements in the AD.

dahblue

January 13th, 2011 at 5:33 PM ^

I believe what Brian is trying to do is set the stage for, "We should have kept RichRod cause he would've won all these games anyway...we were almost on the cusp of greatness!"  Of course, with RichRod, "the win total didn't matter" and "the fans never gave him a chance".

Until Brian's "fuck off and die" tantrum is done, it might be best to ignore his opinion and concentrate only on his conveyance of non-opinion-based information.

treetown

January 13th, 2011 at 5:40 PM ^

1. We have to wait and hear what happens with #16.

2. Then we have to see how many people on the team now will stick through Spring ball and Summer workouts and qualify for the fall.

3. We'll also have to see if any of the incoming freshmen who might enroll in the winter work out. I know this is doubtful, but it is a possibility.

4. We don't know how the "new" system will mesh with the "old" players.

So sure, maybe 7-8 wins are possible, but let's keep our powder dry and wait and see.
I do note that your chart suggests we could go 5-0 (again) and so we shouldn't be too excited if we are undefeated after September 2011. We've already been down that path twice.

st barth

January 13th, 2011 at 5:43 PM ^

Minnesota at 95% might be a little high.  They finished the year with some momentum (3 wins including an upset of Iowa).  Oh, and they passed over Hoke for their job opening, so there's that too.

Omega

January 13th, 2011 at 6:41 PM ^

If Hoke is really such a good hire that it was worth all of the poor management of the coaching evaluation/firing/change, then he should be able to produce at least what one would've expected from Rodriguez, right?  Thus, 9 regular seasons wins, no excuses.

TXmaizeNblue

January 13th, 2011 at 8:23 PM ^

Weird coincidence that San Deigo State is on the schedule.  I would not overlook a team that took the Horned Frogs to the buzzer.  Nor a team that almost beat Missouri.  Not to mention, there will be that extra passion of wanting to beat the coach that left them for greener pastures.  That game kind of scares me.