Hoke is a low 3 star

Submitted by Captain Obvious on January 12th, 2011 at 11:02 AM

As you may know, I hate analogies.  I'm going to make one today regardless. 

Hiring a coach is like recruiting.  We just hired a guy that was non-rated on Scout until interest from Michigan bumped him to a low 3 star rating.  However, he does not need to add bulk to play at the next level.

I'm not part of the 3 star mafia.  I understand that recruiting and star ratings are all about probabilities.  Our low 3 star guy may beat the odds and have great success.  But make no mistake, this guy had NO other offers and did not garner interest from the likes of Indiana, Minnesota or other bottom tier BCS schools.  Did he not attend the combine circuit (i.e., have an agent out there testing the waters)?  Is he from an area that is not heavily scouted (i.e., a relative unknown, not in the national spotlight)?  Was he beating up on inferior talent?

I'm not sure.  I do know that he is a giant question mark.  His record does NOT inspire confidence, objectively.  In my mind, he is Justin Feagin (please God let me be wrong).  Late in the process, we were looking for a home run recruit at a position of need - QB.  We had just lost our hyped recruit that sort of underwhelmed a lot of us but to others represented hope for the future (Mallett/RR).  We were left with essentially nothing and scrambling.  We went hard after the top dog 5 star (Pryor/JH) and failed.  We then took a flier on a low 3 star type that no one wanted, with the hope that he could be developed to fill a gaping hole at the most important position on the field.

This failed miserably, but of course that doesn't mean it has to this time.  He could be Mike Hart or Pat White or whoever else was lowly rated and ended up flourishing.  Make no mistake about it - those of you that are saying "well yeah, but look at Tressel! He was an unknown and dominated!"  You guys are making the exact same argument as "Mike Hart was a 3 star."  We just made a low probability hire and I think this is the point Brian was trying to make.  If it works out, great.  It won't be because DB is a genius; it will be in spite of his idiotic process and late decision.  We will have gotten lucky.  Any after the fact stories that paint Hoke as a sure-fire winner that was certain to have us "return to glory" will be severely misplaced.

It will just mean that a low 3 star recruit beat the odds and outworked the competition.

Comments

Geaux_Blue

January 12th, 2011 at 11:05 AM ^

Tressel was winning Div 1 AA championships like they were a joke and held out on taking another offer but for two schools: ND and OSU. Tressel easily could have gone to a Florida or a Miami and had outstanding success before going to OSU. 

PurpleStuff

January 12th, 2011 at 12:17 PM ^

I wrote about it in the "People Smarter than Me" diary comments, but I just don't have any energy to care what happens going forward at this point. Brandon basically said "Rodriguez doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt in this specific three year window despite his past success but I'm going to give Hoke the benefit of the doubt for his entire head coaching career and praise him unequivocally." Hard for me to get excited about something when the "Michigan Man" bullshit and who you know outweighs rationality and expected future performance.

Hoke seems like a great guy but Brandon can suck a bag of dicks.

sheepman

January 12th, 2011 at 11:11 AM ^

Hey Captain Obvious (appropriate name for this reply) - He is our coach. Doesn't matter what any of us think about it. We cannot be like the RR haters who blew it up for him from the start.

Support him, love UM football, love the team. Nothing more to say about it. 

crazedmaize

January 12th, 2011 at 11:13 AM ^

....recruit who was never given a shot in 2 years......his name is Will Campbell......seriously? A 5-star kid isn't good enough to play for this defense???....I trust BH will do a much better job of inspiring and motivating his talent because there is definitely talent here....much better than what they've shown.

cp4three2

January 12th, 2011 at 11:13 AM ^

Whenever people would talk about Harbaugh they would ignore his first two seasons because "It was Stanford."  I fail to see why the same can't be applied for a Ball State team that was hit with sanctions.

 

Two things Stanford has that Ball State doesn't have compared to their competitors.  It's the best college in the country that plays D1 football and is in California.  Ball State is in Muncie, Indiana.  

 

If anything he looks like a guy who played at a high level in a low division in high school who's a 4 star.  Is he really?  We're about to find out. 

SanFrancisco_W…

January 12th, 2011 at 11:18 AM ^

OK, can we please just drop the analogies and hatred for our new head coach and have some "constructive" arguments on his strengths and how he's going to improve our team.  This is a pointless thread, aimed at stirring the pot...and for what?

turd ferguson

January 12th, 2011 at 11:20 AM ^

I'm probably unrealistically optimistic and positive at this point, but hear me out.

San Diego State lost four games this season.  They lost by 3 at Missouri, 3 at BYU, 5 at TCU, and 4 vs. Utah.  We all know that there is a lot of randomness in college football and that luck plays an uncomfortably large role.  Let's say that SDSU won three or four of those games.  Hoke would be just as hot (and nationally recognized) a coaching prospect as guys like Kyle Whittingham who had an outstanding season or two and saw major job offers because of it.

On top of that, although I agree that the "Michigan man" thing can get a little annoying and counterproductive, Hoke is more valuable to Michigan than he would be to any other school.  He's not going anywhere (helpful with program stability and recruiting), he's probably feeling personally responsible for protecting the Michigan image (helpful with program cleanliness and coaching work ethic), he probably loathes Ohio State and our other rivals (helpful with improving the probabilities of winning those games and, again, recruiting), and he is arriving to a chorus of "he's the greatest guy in the world" endorsements from former Michigan players and coaches (who wouldn't feel the need to speak up if he signed with another program).

Again, maybe I'm being foolishly optimistic right now, but I really like this move.  There's a good chance that he's a highly underrated coach, by all accounts he's a great, honest guy, and he's more valuable to us than he'd be to any other school.

BlackMethod

January 12th, 2011 at 11:23 AM ^

I've heard lots of folks pointing out that programs such as Minnesota and Indiana looked at, and ultimately passed over, Brady Hoke. Their logic is that these two weak programs didn't want him, so why should Michigan? My thought is this...maybe those programs continue to suck BECAUSE they passed a guy like Hoke over? Basically, I think it could be less of an indictment of Hoke's coaching ability and say infinitely more about programs like Minnesota and Indiana that haven't had consistent success. It's too early to know who's right, but that argument has been driving me crazy.

diclemeg2

January 12th, 2011 at 11:52 AM ^

Captain Obvious... youre exactly the type of assh*le who wouldve shat on Bo when hired...and then two years later, would be driving his bandwagon...

in the kinds words of the virgin mary...  PISS OFF

Captain Obvious

January 12th, 2011 at 12:03 PM ^

and incapable of parsing different situations.  Oh wait, that's why I hated analogies in the first place.

I am hating on DB here.  Always have been, always will.  Unlike with Bo, we are running off a coach after 3 years here and hiring someone with a worse resume.  The bar has been set - the hire MUST be better than the predecessor when you exercise discretion to fire a coach that is deemed a failure in the middle of his K.  If the new hire is not a better choice, you have every right to question the man making the change - DB.

Unlike many of the RR haters that were more interested in being right than what's best for the team, I hope Hoke goes undefeated and destroys everyone in his path.  I am behind him by necessity and want the team to win.  This does NOT mean I have to choke down DB's decision like it was a good one or try to shine up Hoke's past record to make it look better than it is.  It's a bad record and I hope it improves.

jamiemac

January 12th, 2011 at 11:56 AM ^

Hoke is 30-19 the last four years at basically perennial last place programs

And, has coached a national championship winning unit as an assistant coach

And, lined up a parade of future NFLers to come to campus as an assistant coach in Ann Arbor.

There is nothing unkown or not proven about his abilities. He is a really good football coach

Hurricaneesq2010

January 12th, 2011 at 12:10 PM ^

Was anyone on Harbaugh, Chizic, or Chip Kelly three years ago? Every big name was a no name at some point. Give the guy a chance and quit looking for a name dropper, let them make their name here.

uminks

January 12th, 2011 at 12:56 PM ^

I will support Hoke 100 percent!  What ever happened in the past is now in the past. We must move forward. I only wish if DB knew this was his coach he would have put him in place a month or two ago. It would have improved our current recruiting class. I hope Hoke can get out there on the recruiting trail and try to hold the recruits we have and gain some more.