Is Hoke a good evaluator of talent?

Submitted by ADSellers on

Let's not forget that he worked out Jake Ryan while at SDSU and decided not to offer him a scholarship. 5 years later he's arguably the best player on Michigan's entire roster (except for maybe Funchess). What did he miss with Ryan? And what did he see with his O-line recruits that wasn't really there? Is he just relying on others' evaluations and the length of a recruit's offer sheet to decide if they're worthy of an offer?   

MilkSteak

September 8th, 2014 at 12:26 PM ^

If he's not a good evaluator of talent then no top tier program coach is. Just look at the offer sheets some of the guys we've pulled had, they're not all bad at evaluating. You can make an argument for developing the talent, but evaluating at the high school level is not his problem.

JTrain

September 8th, 2014 at 1:10 PM ^

Exactly. Everyone wanted most of them. It's what you do with them that defines your coaching ability. Sadly, guys like Dantonio, who tressel called the greatest evaluator of talent he's been around, have gotten lesser players and done more with them. That, my mgoblog friends, makes me extremely jealous!!


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Wolverine Devotee

September 8th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^

I heard an interesting comparison of Hoke and John Blake from Oklahoma. He was a great recruiter (OU won the national championship two years after he was let go), but not a great coach. 

UMgradMSUdad

September 8th, 2014 at 11:33 PM ^

While Hoke is not perfect, Blake was a horrible coach and a liar and cheat at recruiting.  His HC career at OU resulted in a 12-22 record, and he was given a 3 year show-cause penalty by the NCAA for his recruiting shenanigans at UNC. 

umfan323

September 8th, 2014 at 12:34 PM ^

These kids have been offered by most of the big schools in the country, so either everyone can't evaluate talent or coaching is the problem.. The problem with the O line is coaching..

WichitanWolverine

September 8th, 2014 at 12:41 PM ^

It simply can't be a matter of bringing in talent. With how many 4- and 5-stars we've brought in, SOME if them should pan out. But for the most part that's just not happening yet. Bad cultivation of talent is more likely.

Brick in The Wave

September 8th, 2014 at 12:43 PM ^

It is the nature of the interwebs to be reactionary.  If the majority of people on this board had been level-headed there would have been a lot of "we are accepting mediocrity" on here.  

It makes us feel better to get mad because that shows people how much we care.  Then we calm down and sober up and people create 1000 threads about what we can do to right the ship or what is wrong with the ship in the first place.

 

MDot

September 8th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^

I said this in another thread, but

 

"it's one thing to whiff on a couple of players (it happens in every program, every year), but there's no f*cking way we whiffed on 2 whole classes of O-Linemen. That's the part that's confusing to me. Because it can't be that we are misevaluating ALL of these players, beause we were close to landing Josh Garnett, and he's balling at Stanford. Just poor player development all around here."

 

I usually hate going straight to coach-blaming (a la Bill Simmons), because it's usually just lazy rationale to why said team isn't playing well...but in this case, I really don't see any other answer. For whatever reason, guys just aren't developing here.

ish

September 8th, 2014 at 12:54 PM ^

i actually think this might be the best of the endless snowflake threads.  and it doesn't just apply to hoke, it applies to the entire staff.  i think the real message isn't that he's a poor evaluator of high school talent, but of the talent on his own team. 

consider:

  • QWash played very little last year, for no apparent reason;
  • Furman and Avery played over Wilson and Gordon even though they were demonstrably worse;
  • Bolden over Morgan this year even though it's obvious that Morgan is better;
  • Believing that JMFR can be a good MLB, while also taking away a strength of the defense with that move;
  • Twice believing Jack Miller could stand up to large DTs and NTs, last year and again this year, even though the evidence is clear that he cannot;
  • Not playing Pipkins much this year even though every time he gets on the field something good happens;
  • Believing that Magnuson can play LG.

those are just some examples.  it appears that this staff does a poor job of evaluating their own players relative to one another.  particularly because they rotate on defense so much, this means that low caliber players are on the field all the time.  they seem too reliant on what happens in practice and insufficiently reliant on what has happened in previous games.

PurpleStuff

September 8th, 2014 at 3:29 PM ^

Putting both BWC and Washington on D, them complaining about a lack of bodies and talent on O (the 2012 line is four NFL upperclassmen and choice of Mealer/Barnum if Campbell is over there).  Though who knows if that would have mattered given Borges and Co. propensity for things like Iowa 2011.

Thinking Devin Gardner was needed at WR when you had Gallon, Roundtree, Funchess, Dileo, Norfleet, etc. on the roster and weren't playing 4-5 wide anyway.  Thinking that was okay because Bellomy was an adequate option at QB.  Doing all this and not bringing in a QB in the 2012 class.

Thinking Devin Funchess needed to spend a year and a half trying to block defensive ends rather than catching passes.  Because the system says so.

Reader71

September 8th, 2014 at 11:07 PM ^

Although I do think its interesting to consider if Campbell and Washington would have helped the OL, you must realize that they were our two starting 1-techs for 3 years. If they are both guards, who is playing the nose? The problem is that we were thin along both lines, so you rob Peter to pay Paul and you're still in the hole. Also, this argument might have had some more force when you could claim Campbell was an NFL guard. The Jets took a flier based on his build and skill set. He was cut after one year, never took a snap, often didn't even dress, and is out of the league. I'm a Jets fan. They are stupid. I wish someone else had drafted him and given him a shot at the nose.

alum96

September 8th, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^

If you exclude the top 30 or so kids in the nation you are going to get a very similar type talent anywhere from #50 to #300.  These rankings are not science.  Comparing a kid from the PSL in Detroit to the 2nd division in Texas to the 1st division in Virginia to Utah to Arizona to New Jersey to Georgia to Florida... it's a crapshoot.  Development is the issue, not identifying talent.

Identifying talent is an issue for Wisconsin, Michigan State, Virginia, Arizona, Illinois, Kansas State.   Those programs dont get the pick of the litter.   They are recruiting mostly players ranked 400-800 or whatever.

UM, LSU, OSU, Texas A&M, Texas, USC, ND, Florida, FSU, Georgia are all picking from the same group of 400 kids.  Yes you can barf on 4 of your 18 kids but we are not picking the 18 sucky ones out of 400 every year.  You have to do something with these kids when they get on campus - they are still raw projects in most cases who need a lot of teaching - again excluding the Bosas, Peppers, Gurleys whatever.  If you throw all those teams classes together they are going to be more or less the same excluding the top 30-40 kids in the nation.  I am excluding Bama since they get so many of those top 50 but every other top tier program gets the same raw material.  What they do with that material is what sets them apart.

Tuebor

September 8th, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^

IMO OL recruiting is a crapshoot and teams that can develop OL will always fare better than teams that just recruit OL well.  Wisconsin under Bielama comes to mind.  Not alot of "talent" starz! wise into the program but NFL caliber OL on the way out. Eric Fisher from CMU comes to mind too. Went from 2 starz! to first overall pick in 5 years at CMU.  It is all about development.

Perkis-Size Me

September 8th, 2014 at 1:28 PM ^

He's not a bad talent evaluator, but nothing he's done has proven he can develop talent.

That's why we're so lucky to have a guy like Beilein as our basketball coach. He's not a recruiting ace a la Coack K or Calipari, but he doesn't need to be. There may not be a better talent evaluator in the country. He sees talent where others don't, and he can develop it to its full potential. He's almost like Dantonio in that regard.

Ugh I can't believe I just compared out beloved basketball coach to a man who has as much charm and personality as a baked potato.


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Blueinsconsin

September 8th, 2014 at 1:45 PM ^

the talent just fine.  The question is if he can bring them to their full potential (and beyond) or not.  That quesiton will truly be answered next year when his recruits become upper classmen.

Maize and Blue…

September 8th, 2014 at 4:51 PM ^

in their third year in the program so stop with the upperclassman BS.  Our young Oline has Magnuson, Kalis, Braden, and Bars in their third year in the program. Glasgow and Miller are in their fourth year in the program.  If your four and five star recruits can't be servicable starters by their third year you are not developing them very well.

PurpleStuff

September 8th, 2014 at 5:58 PM ^

USC is starting three class of 2012 guys and two true freshmen on the offensive line.  They just won at Stanford in a game where their backs ran for 179 yards on 33 carries, without much help from the passing game.

Even assuming we'll get better, there is no reason to think we'll be as good as they are when their young guys have just as much room to mature as ours do.  And that is before we get into talking about comparing Justin Davis, Juju Smith and Adoree Jackson to the skill guys we've brought in lately (Devin Funchess, three Hoke classes of backs who've done nothing, and three Hoke classes of WR who ND jumped on every route Saturday night).  And that is with them getting 10 fewer scholarships to hand out every year, with Lane Kiffin running the show, him getting fired midseason, and an awkward transition where a popular figure within the program was denied the job (Orgeron).

The fact is, Hoke's supposedly great recruiting was inflated by 5-star rankings for guys like Kalis and Pipkins who aren't even seeing the field and may never even end up as consistent starters.  Even if you want to make excuses for why things aren't better, we're still nowhere close to being an elite team at any point in the near future.

Gino5778

September 8th, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^

Its not a matter of talent. Its a lack of coaching skill.  At the least our D-line should be outstanding and they got pushed around Saturday night.

There is not one member of that staff that should still have a job today. From RB's missing holes, to OL not making holes, to no rush on Golston, to DB's looking overmatched, and a missed FG.  Nothing about Saturday's proformance is worth feeling good about. 

This coaching staff needs to be completely wiped out with no hold overs for the next guy.

Roc Blue in the Lou

September 8th, 2014 at 11:40 PM ^

Overreact much?  Mattison and Nuss and Heck and Manning are all hacks because of one giant turd dropped on Saturday???  Try 31 carries for 54 yards...is that a defensive line getting "pushed around Saturday night'...if we put up that stat and lost, in most games, we would be screaming at the o-line and lack of a running game.  I get the angst, but drop the drama.  Poor third down conversions (both not making ours and allowing theirs), 4 turnovers and bad red zone D will get us all down--not to mention botched field goals.  But i don't think a lack of talent is the blame and a wholesale slaughter of the coaching staff is not the answer.  Maybe take up smoking??

YaterSalad

September 9th, 2014 at 7:31 AM ^

No kidding. I have to say that the d-line and the LBs did their jobs. We just ended up not being able to press coverages once Taylor went out at Lewis grabbed two instance pass interference calls. The d-line generating pressure is a product of solid pass coverage and vice versa. You can't have one without the other. We stopped the run. We generated pressure eventually too. We just got beat by quick drops when our DBs lined up 3-5 yards off the WR. This kept us from jamming them and then getting caught on the out shoulder for those seemingly impossible to stop slant / vert routes.

sLideshowBob

September 8th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^

Questioning coaching ability and what he gets out of the recruits, fair. But most people were doing cartwheels when we scored our current offensive line. If Hoke was wrong then so are 90% of evaluators. Everybody hates what is going down; but for realz?

bronxblue

September 8th, 2014 at 2:18 PM ^

Considering they have one of the top-ranked recruiting classes by a number of recruiting sites whose jobs are based on identifying top players, I'm not sure what to tell you.  Now, he might not be able to develop those players, but if he's "wrong" about guys like Peppers and Green then everyone else is screwed as well.

KC Wolve

September 8th, 2014 at 2:26 PM ^

This all reminds me of when the Royals had the "Best Farm System Ever Assembled" a few years ago. There were articles everywhere saying there was so much talent that it would be impossible for them to mess it up. Well, sure the Royals are in first place but it isn't because of that farm system save a guy or two. Most of the contributors are guys that were drafted prior or picked up via free agency.

bronxblue

September 8th, 2014 at 2:48 PM ^

Well, some of those guys (like Shields) they picked up in trades because of that farm system. 

The issue seems to be player development (if anything), not recruiting.  Personally I don't know how good of a coach Hoke is as a developer of talent, but he definitely brings in the type you need to win with.