Hockey PWR update and rooting guide

Submitted by mfan_in_ohio on February 26th, 2012 at 1:17 AM

Warning: this got longer than I meant for it to get.  Happens a lot.

 Although Michigan suffered an upset at the hands of Bowling Green on Friday night, all was not lost this weekend.  In fact, an oddity about the Pairwise rankings is that losses to bad teams hurt less than losses to good teams, in that Michigan's record against TUCs was unaffected.  Also, Ferris only managed one point this weekend against Western, Lowell took only one point from Merrimack, and Denver split with North Dakota.  So Michigan ends the weekend in 3rd place in the Pairwise, trailing only #1 Duluth and #2 BC. 

Hockey East and the WCHA have one week of games left, while the CCHA starts its playoffs next weekend.  BU plays Northeastern in what is a win-win for Michigan. Northeastern is a common opponent for Michigan and BU (BU beat them once, Michigan lost to them once.  A BU sweep might knock Northeastern out of the TUC ranks, helping Michigan's record against TUCs.  Any loss or tie by BU gives us a big boost as it breaks the current tie against common opponents in our favor.  It doesn't matter now, but could matter if BU plays BC (another common opponent) in the Hockey East playoffs.  BTW, the other common opponent is Notre Dame, a possible quarterfinal opponent in the CCHA playoffs (should either BG or Alaska upset their opponents). Defeating ND in that series would also help us against BU.  So root hard for Northeastern.

Duluth has two games at St. Cloud.  The only way we win the comparison with Duluth is if they fall behind us in their record against TUCs.  That would happen if they somehow get swept by St. Cloud, or at least lose one now and lose again in the WCHA playoffs while Michigan wins out.

The Ferris comparison will be decided by RPI, where we currently have a slight advantage.  We will win the comparison if we do better than Ferris in the CCHA playoffs.

Denver is a close comparison, but their split this weekend hurt their TUC record and they remain just behind us.  Root against them in their games at UNO this weekend.  If they sweep UNO, they, at least temporarily, flip the comparison. 

Lowell took a beating at the hands of Merrimack, and while it didn't really do anything with our comparison against them, it hurt them against other teams and dropped them down to 6th.  They, like BU, are tied with us against common opponents.  Their series against Providence next weekend is pretty meaningless to us, but should they encounter BC in the Hockey East tournament, root for BC.

And speaking of BC, the Eagles are 0.01 ahead of us in RPI, which is actually a lot, and flipping the RPI comparison is the only way to pull ahead of them.  Here's the thing though: it doesn't really matter if we pull ahead of BC, because they're getting sent to the Worcester, MA regional anyway.  So go ahead and root against BC next weekend if you want, but you'll want to root FOR them later on against Lowell or BU. 

Rooting summary: Next weekend, root for Northeastern over BU, St. Cloud over Duluth and UNO over Denver

 

Comments

redwings8831

February 26th, 2012 at 1:35 AM ^

1 Minn-Duluth (WC) 31
2 Boston Coll (HE) 30
3 Michigan (CC) 29
4 Ferris State (CC) 27
5 Boston Univ (HE) 27
6 Mass-Lowell (HE) 27
7 Minnesota (WC) 25
8 Miami (CC) 23
9 Union (EC) 23
10 Maine (HE) 22
11 Mich State (CC) 20
12 Northern Mich (CC) 20
13 Denver U (WC) 20
14 North Dakota (WC) 18
15 Merrimack (HE) 18

St. Paul:
1. Minn-Duluth
7. Minnesota (host)
9. Union
16. AHA Champ

Worcester:
2. Boston College
8. Miami
10. Maine
14. North Dakota

Green Bay:
3. Michigan
6. Mass-Lowell
11. Michigan State
15. Merrimack

Bridgeport:
4. Ferris State
5. Boston Univ.
12. Northern Michigan
13. Denver

mfan_in_ohio

February 26th, 2012 at 12:46 PM ^

I think the committee doesn't want to punish the #1 overall seed by sending them to a host school's building (I know it's not their actual home ice, but it's not like St. Paul is far from Minneapolis).  I would expect with this field that they'd go with straight bracket integrity, except BC and Michigan would be switched, so we'd be in St. Paul with Minnesota, Maine, and Merrimack.  Green Bay would have Duluth vs. the AHA champ and Miami vs. Union; Worcester has BC vs. NoDak and Lowell vs. MSU, and Bridgeport stays the same.  It's hard for the Michigan teams to get fans to Green Bay, so for attendance reasons they'd rather have one of the Minnesota schools at each western regional.

WingsNWolverines

February 26th, 2012 at 3:01 AM ^

to see Michigan win the last Mason Cup championship! We dominated tonight @ BGSU. I was there and was amazed how we turned it around from last night. Some bad calls yes but Hunwick stood on his head and shut the Falcons down! I have a great feeling about the CCHA tourney but we NEED to capitalize on the PP. opportunities lost like tonight will kill us.

mfan_in_ohio

February 26th, 2012 at 11:50 AM ^

Probably with one of the top two seeds overall, but probably not the #1 overall.  There is a big difference between the top #1 seed and the rest, because the top #1 seed draws the champion of the Atlantic Hockey conference, who is way below the rest of the field.  Without some losses by BC, that's not going to happen for us, but I'll take the #1 seed in any regional after the first half of the season that Michigan had.