Hockey to 15th in Pairwise

Submitted by Canadian on
Well after the late games Michigan has moved into a tie for 15th in the Pairwise (which I had said was damn near best case scenario in my diary earlier this week). Another big weekend coming up this weekend but let's take a moment tonight and celebrate sweeping the season series against Wisconsin.

gwkrlghl

March 1st, 2015 at 12:38 AM ^

After getting swept by Minny and splitting with OSU I thought our at-large bid was done. Now it looks like a 4-0 finish could actually get us into 3-seed range

Joined: 04/13/2012

MGoPoints: 72

mgoblue0970

March 1st, 2015 at 12:38 AM ^

15th means nothing.  Sorry.  Neg away.  But only one B1G team is getting in the tourney this year.  Michigan needs to be higher than 15 to slide in.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 18648

mgoblue0970

March 1st, 2015 at 1:13 AM ^

But the tourney doesn't start tomorrow.

Michigan is tied for 15th... not owning 15th outright.  Which means they are on the bubble and not firmly in.

You're also not accounting for conference tournaments.  If there are any upsets, and the loser was ranked ahead of Michigan, that has the potential to move Michigan down if the loser gets an at large bid.

Furthermore, there are teams with Pairwise rankings lower than Michigan who beat Michigan on a head to head comparison... this matters because there is still hockey to be played; again the tourney doesn't start tomorrow.

I'm NOT rooting against Michigan mind you.  I'm just not counting my chickens before they hatch!

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 18648

JonnyHintz

March 1st, 2015 at 9:14 AM ^

Probably not. You're more than likely going to see a team ranked lower than 16 getting an auto-bid by winning their tournament, which would push the pair wise rank threshold down a bit. Simply by being the 16th ranked team means we HAVE to win out conference. You want to be 12-14 to feel safe, and even then #14 can get a tad dicey. Considering where Michigan and Minnesota currently stand, it is unlikely they both get in unless they both win out and meet in the conference finals, and then hope there are no surprise conference tournament winners. I say we just play it safe and win the B1G.

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48236

bacon1431

March 1st, 2015 at 8:34 AM ^

Where is he suggesting otherwise? All the 15 means is that we're in better position for an at large now than we were before the weekend. And it's confirmation that we can still achieve an at large bid if we take care of business.

Joined: 07/26/2008

MGoPoints: 25277

JonnyHintz

March 1st, 2015 at 9:16 AM ^

Well that is the case regardless of where we are ranked. Wisconsin has 4 wins all season but can still make the tournament if they win the conference tournament. Anyone in the nation who wins out is in and everyone controls their own destiny.

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48236

gwkrlghl

March 1st, 2015 at 9:58 AM ^

Yes, everyone in the country is technically alive. I obviously meant making it as an at-large. When we were ranked #21 after last weekend the odds of making it as an at-large looked very bleak. I'm not sure why there's several people posting in here being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. It's significant that we're at the line with four games to go.

Joined: 04/13/2012

MGoPoints: 72

bronxblue

March 1st, 2015 at 9:12 AM ^

15 means they are on the fringe of a bid.  It means they can make the tourney with a solid showing these next 4 games and not gacking it in the BTT.  It means they don't have much margin, but it is way better than #23 or whatever they were at some point earlier this year.  I know what you are getting at, but being on the fringe after losing to Minny and splitting to OSU is still a pretty good situation.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171032

enlightenedbum

March 1st, 2015 at 3:06 AM ^

Think we can probably manage with 3-1 if we make the Big Ten final and lose to Minnesota.  But it would make things iffy.  No regulation losses + Big Ten final or win the Big Ten are the only ways to be sure.

Joined: 06/06/2009

MGoPoints: 64377

CoachBP6

March 1st, 2015 at 4:14 AM ^

I'm very hopeful tha we can make a run if we get in the dance. This team is so frustrating bc of the gross imbalance between offense and defense. I hate that we struggle vs teams that just sit back and put a bunch of guys in front of the net. Let's fucking go blue!

Joined: 12/18/2013

MGoPoints: 7967

BuckNekked

March 1st, 2015 at 9:19 AM ^

The Wings will want him to play at least 1 year in GR. The AHL is way better competition than the NCAA. He will probably play at Michigan next year but Id say the chances he plays 3 years at Michigan are near 0%.

Joined: 12/06/2013

MGoPoints: -1793

dsny

March 1st, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^

Dylan reminds me of Dave Debol. My memory of Dave is a bit foggy as I was killing a lot of brain cells back in the late 70s but he made it look easy just like Dylan does now. Look him up he was a great home grown talent.

Joined: 05/04/2009

MGoPoints: 150

LSAClassOf2000

March 1st, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^

To add a little bit here, the complete rankings - LINK

It's a top 15 well-populated with Minnesota teams certainly, including our own conference compatriot at 11th. Penn State is tied for 27th, and Michigan State is down at 32nd. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130561

tlo2485

March 1st, 2015 at 10:15 AM ^

a sweep next week would easily put us into 14th or better,.... we're so close to, bowling green, and they are playing at home vs Huntsville which will not help them even if they sweep. yale and Lowell are off, and St cloud is facing a potential loss vs denver

Joined: 08/06/2010

MGoPoints: 7429

Alton

March 1st, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^

(Note:  the season doesn't end today).

But if the season ended today, we woudl get regionals something like this:

Northeast Regional (Manchester, NH):  Minnesota-Duluth v Bowling Green; Boston University v Quinnipiac

East Regional (Providence, RI):  Miami v Yale; Nebraska-Omaha v Providence

Midwest Regional (South Bend, IN):  Minnesota State v Michigan; Michigan Tech v Minnesota

West Regional (Fargo, ND):  North Dakota v Robert Morris; Denver v Boston College

 

Joined: 07/05/2008

MGoPoints: 13277

Wolverine In Exile

March 1st, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^

1- being in 15 slot now basically means my scenario from weeks diary for an at large bid is still in play. Sweep PSU then even a split with sparty followed by a bit finals appearance (preferably against Minnesota) gets us at 12-14 in pwr and that's an at large bid 2- the only conference I'm worries about realistically a with stealing bids, is, ironically the big ten. Anybody besides us or the gophers wins the conference that likely goes the at large bid the #2 team in the conference is hoping for. The traditional bid stealers are really not relevant this year- american hockeys only going to get one team no matter what (their strongest team, robert morris, is in the 20s in pwr), and the ecac and wcha both have 3+ teams in the mix for at larges so it'd take a HUGE Cinderella to win it all. With the revamped conferences that's less likely than in the past since a Cinderella run is going to have to go through a much more difficult gauntlet.

Joined: 11/08/2008

MGoPoints: 10790

Wolverine In Exile

March 1st, 2015 at 8:54 PM ^

If the scenario plays out as you say, the only way I could see three b1g teams would be for us and Minnesota to win out in the regular season giving both of us the top two seeds and putting both of us in around 13th say for the b1g tourney. Then let's say for arguments sake the higher pwr team is Minnesota as it is now. If we win our semi final and Minnesota loses its (vs who is irrelevant-- any other b1g team is in the mid 20s or lower by this point in pwr), then you have Minnesota who'll get docked maybe 1 or 2 slots (leaving them in say 14th pwr), and then we lose in the final we get knocked let's say one slot down from 13 to tied for 14th, then the b1g champ gets slot #16, the aha champ (robert morris, usafa, whoever) gets slot #15, and then you're looking at slot #14 being the last at large team, which is between us and Minnesota. Plus you'd have to have no other upsets in the conference tourneys with a champ outside the top 18 in pwr (if a Cinderella came from pwr slot 18-15, it wouldn't matter much because likely they'd have knocked off a team from their own conference on the bubble sending them out of at large consideration). So I guess if both Mich and Minn were higher than say 13 in pwr going into the tourney, then maybe one could absorb a semi loss and the other a finals loss (especially if it was a surging Penn st who uses a late season push to get into the top 20 pwr and now allows us to get those bonus points for a top 20 win) and still get two at larges in the tourney.

Joined: 11/08/2008

MGoPoints: 10790