Have the Buckeyes Peaked?
With graduation/NFL attrition, and the cyclical nature of CFB, does anyone think that the Buckeyes have reached their peak? I’m not saying they aren’t good (obviously). But after the last few years on the national stage, I’m just asking if they have maxed out their potential.
Even national sportswriters (I know, I know) disagree. Olin Buchanan of Rivals says the Buckeyes have deservingly earned every bowl spot (http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=898294). Meanwhile, Stewart Mandel goes as far as proclaiming the Buckeyes are consistently wasting their talent (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/stewart_mandel/01/07/cfb…).
I want to make this perfectly clear: SIMPLY IMPLYING A TEAM HAS REACHED ITS PEAK DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE NOT GOOD.
This is strictly opinion based in the present tense so if someone thinks they have state your reasons. Conversely, if you don’t agree, state your reasons. I don’t want this to turn into a huge flamefest that gets deleted in an hour so please, a clean fight.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:13 PM ^
not with Pryor having at least 2 years left, maybe 3. I'd have to think that they will be in the MNC hunt every year he's there.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:23 PM ^
They are always in the hunt, but they're never able to show up. This last game was the closest in a while, but UT's defense (and the rest of the big 12 defenses) wasn't that good IMO.
Their signature OU win still left 80 points on the board.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:27 PM ^
My favorite part of that game was how Orakpo abused Alex Boone.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:37 PM ^
I co-sign on that one. I laughed every time Orakpo pwned Boone's Farm.
That's at least one positive with the Rodriguez offense and the Barwis training program. Michigan isn't going to have any plodding, obese lineman anymore. They will all have the agility and endurance to keep up. (Now, brute strength is another issue).
January 9th, 2009 at 9:40 PM ^
I was actually impressed with Michigan's pass protection this season, other than when Schilling got outmuscled for a sack at the end of the Purdue game on a three-man rush.
January 9th, 2009 at 11:06 PM ^
TP Can't throw a pass yet, but with a little sweater vest help, he will polish up his passing game. He still will always be a better runner than passer. One dimensional = Easy day for a seasoned Defensive Coordinator. He is good but not great. To be Cont......
January 9th, 2009 at 9:14 PM ^
Just kidding.
Technically, OSU did peak when they won their national championship several years ago. Every year since then has, by comparison, been a disappointment.
But no, I don't think they're necessarily on the downhill slide. Like you pointed out, the cyclical nature has its effect on every team. And when you have a true freshman quarterback, you're bound to fall short of any high expectations.
That being said, I wonder about the effectiveness of OSU's offensive system. It seems like they have a mish-mash of offensive plays and they don't really have an identity. I mean, the teams who are on top right now (Florida and USC) have systems. Florida has Meyer's spread offense, and USC has had a pro style offense for years. They have wrinkles here and there, but ultimately, there's an offensive system. I don't see that at OSU. Sometimes they're Power I. Sometimes they're spread. While that can be hard to prepare for, I wonder if it takes away from their expertise in any one area.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:17 PM ^
I know they have Pryor who is bound to improve, but who else? Every time they've reloaded the last couple years they just seem to maintain. They can't get over the hump.
I don't think they're going downhill, maybe just a holding pattern.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:19 PM ^
They did have a badass offensive line class in 2008. They also seem to get a lot of good DB's, although those DB's all turn out to be troublemakers.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:33 PM ^
For their sake I hope their DBs and OL are good. That's what has cost them these big games.
They always have great recruiting classes, but......what happens? You mean to tell me there isn't anyone they can plug into Ginn or Beanie's spot to keep it within 3 touchdowns?
January 9th, 2009 at 9:36 PM ^
three touchdowns = 21 points
Texas = 3 point loss
January 9th, 2009 at 9:40 PM ^
I forgot to exclude that one. I was thinking more FL and USC.
UOS secondary really impressed me when you consider Sanchez owned them but Colt has that ridiculous completion pct.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:44 PM ^
I think it's a little unfair to ask a team to be great when they're missing arguably their best player. Ginn (according to the NFL draft) was OSU's best player against Florida, and he returned a kick for a TD on basically his only play. And OSU's backup RB's are freshmen and sophomores, and none was as highly rated as Wells.
Maybe they shouldn't get blown out, but would you have expected Michigan to beat Washington State without Woodson? Another cornerback probably wouldn't have picked off that throw into the endzone.
Would Michigan have beaten Florida last year without Manningham or Hart? Probably not.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:48 PM ^
That's why I gave them a 3 touchdown cushion. Michigan might not have won those games, but if you are one of the elites, one player shouldn't decide a blowout.
How many yards a game was osu averaging in 2006? They should have been able to at least crack the century mark with a Heisman qb, even without Ginn.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:53 PM ^
Eh...I'm not sure I agree with this. Not only does your best player make plays, but he also changes the gameplan. For example, just for kicks, let's say Ginn would have scored another TD in that game, just because he was really good. Okay, that makes it 41-21.
Let's say he's still in that game and runs deep and opens underneath routes for Anthony Gonzalez. Then Gonzalez grabs a couple catches on crossing routes and moves them down the field quicker.
Maybe Ginn fakes an end around, which opens up the other side of the field for a throwback.
Great players don't just make plays. They make the players around them better, and they make defenses account for them. Suddenly, Ginn is out and then Florida can concentrate on stopping OSU's second-best strength.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:59 PM ^
Very hypothetical, but very believable. However, they were harassing Troy boy all night and they had nothing on the ground. Just not MNC worthy IMO.
January 10th, 2009 at 3:20 PM ^
Harassing the QB is easier when his field position repeatedly puts him and his offense within 5 yards of his own end zone. At the very least, I think Ginn would have made a huge difference in field position for OSU. Better field position puts pressure off of both the defense and the offense. I remember reading a stat about that game that Florida was in their own 40 or closer to start nearly every drive whereas OSU was pinned in their own 20 or farther to start the majority of their drives. That's significant, and something Ginn could have possibly made a large difference in.
January 9th, 2009 at 11:14 PM ^
Correction, Would Michigan have beaten Florida without Manningham and Arrington?(HELL NO) Hart Fumbled twice not to mention one of them was on Florida's one yard line. Just sayin.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:19 PM ^
If so they've been going downhill for seven years and nobody realized it.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:52 PM ^
I guess what I'm getting at is that this was THE team. 4 straight BCS bowls, the first 5 year ownage of Michigan. This was a pretty JR/SR heavy team and after all that they still couldn't get it done on the big stage.
A good team? Yes. But is this as good as they get?
January 9th, 2009 at 9:55 PM ^
If Pryor really is the second coming of Vince Young, I wouldn't put any level of success past them. Young was a great college player.
January 9th, 2009 at 9:52 PM ^
Well I hope they've peaked but probably not. Just looking at next year we can assume their defense probably takes a step back with the guys they lose to the NFL but I think their offense will be better. Pryor has another year under his belt, Herron looks really good (and possibly better suited to Pryor's skill set than Beanie was) and the receivers who graduated weren't really that good anyway. Down the line they're recruiting as well as ever despite all the negative national publicity they get. And ole' Sweatervest isn't going anywhere. So maybe a holding pattern but I don't see them going downhill anytime soon.
January 9th, 2009 at 10:02 PM ^
They have TP for two or three more years, top five class the last two years, and they play in the Big 10. I think in two years when TP has developed his passing skills (to what extent I can't say) they will be hard to stop. I hope it doesn't happen but if TP is anything similar to what Vince Young was then I have no reason to believe that they have not peaked.
January 9th, 2009 at 11:08 PM ^
With graduation/NFL attrition, and the cyclical nature of CFB, does anyone think that the Buckeyes have reached their peak?
CFB isn't that cyclical. Indiana is unlikely to make a BCS bowl anytime in the next 20 years. Meanwhile, it's a good bet that Michigan/OSU/PSU will be, year-in and year-out, the best programs in the conference. Similarly, Florida, USC, Oklahoma and the like will probably remain strong for the indefinite future, while Baylor, Iowa State, and Duke are unlikely to ever be better than mediocre. When new programs crash the party, it's almost always a temporary blip. Similarly, when the power programs suffer downturns, they usually don't stay down for very long.
So anyway, I doubt OSU is going anywhere soon. We've got to catch up to them.
January 9th, 2009 at 11:14 PM ^
Agreed. Some teams are historically mediocre to good (Oregon/Auburn) while others are good to great (USC/OSU/UT/M). If we catch up, I hope we can get to (and keep up with) the next level.
I'm just asking at this point in history, is UOS as good as they're going to be compared to the "current" powers?
January 10th, 2009 at 1:55 PM ^
Has OSU peaked? How much farther is it feasible to go up?
3 shots, winning 1, in the NC game the last 7 years, with total domination of their chief rival. If they go up any more, they would be USC.
Law of diminishing returns. OSU would have to get a lot better to get one more win a year that would be "the next level." And maintaining that level is practically impossible for more than a few years... but USC seems to be able to do it.
January 10th, 2009 at 2:24 PM ^
Did we ever imagine the Carr era would peak in '97? Their 2002 season was a lot like that -- dominating defense, serviceable offense that made a few plays.
Afterward, both programs got a huge influx of talent: Walker, Terrell, Henson, plus Walter Cross, Julius Curry, Justin Fargas and Cato June were highly rated. Some of it panned out (incl. Joppru, Foote, Hobson), some of it didn't.
OSU has been getting a little less than their star rating as of late, but they've been making up for it by simply getting more talent.
The big difference is that Ohio State came to life and essentially kept Michigan in check. But Michigan has been down, and Sweatervest has been cashing in. They're bringing in another monster class this year.
On the other hand, there's a big diff between projected talent and on-field talent. You don't just find another disease like Laurinaitus. They can, however, keep replacing those linemen, and tailbacks. The good news is they haven't been able to replace the uber-defensive backs they've been bringing in.
Ohio State will go into at least the next three seasons with a good shot at the national championship. The rest is really luck. The best I think we can hope for is maybe if we upset them next year and beat them in Columbus in 2010, and they keep losing bowl games, their boosters will get stupid and fire cheaty, a la Earl Bruce (except he pays players instead of punching them).
There's been enough crap going on with that program to death penalty them 10 times over. But the NCAA doesn't whack their premier programs.
January 10th, 2009 at 3:01 PM ^
a question of knowing what it takes to beat OSU. I think many teams know how to beat OSU, they simply don't have the talent to do it. Coach "vesty" is alot like Coach Carr-you know what they are going to do but can you stop it. In my opinion, Coach Carr did his best job as a coach his last game. He had Florida so off balanced they didn't know what the hell to do. With that being said, Coach "vesty" has become to Carr-like, and the only thing he has going for the bucknuts is his ability to recruit. OSU's day is coming and the when it does, "vesty" will look like a dear in the headlights-somethings are worth waiting for.
January 10th, 2009 at 3:21 PM ^
Well done. That is a very concise way of putting it. I remember hearing that about Carr, i.e. just lining up and out-talenting the other team.
That's why I was glad when RR came in and said something to the effect of "it used to be worth 10-14 points just running out in the winged helmets". He has a history of having to out scheme opponents due to lack of talent. Now he will be able to do it with talent.