Harbaugh Era So Far - How do you rate it?
What are your thoughts? Is it a success, failure, in-between, or incomplete? (I got this topic idea from Cody Stavenhagen on the Athletic and wanted to hear from you all. Here are my thoughts...
I feel that it has largely been a success considering where the program was when he took it over. He overachieved with a transfer quarterback in his first season by winning 10 games and turning Rudock into an NFL draft pick. In his second season, they lost three games by a total of five points - all of which came down to the final play. Granted, they could have made plays earlier so that they weren’t in that situation. Regardless, they were one shady call in Columbus away from playing in the Big Ten championship and moving on to the playoff. That was all accomplished with a three star quarterback who was not immensely talented. Last year, they had the least number of returning starters in D1 college football. Their top two quarterbacks got injured, and they still managed to win eight games.
Harbaugh has been a victim of unrealistic expectations, created partially by his overachieving and leading the team to the brink of the playoff in his second season and partially because of his outstanding accomplishments at every other coaching job he has taken. Look at what happened to Florida State, a preseason top three team, when they lost their quarterback last season. Look at Notre Dame and Michigan State in the 2016 season, they were 3-9 and 4-8 respectively. The worst season in the Harbaugh era of Michigan is 8-5. Let’s not forget to mention that while he has not fared well against his rivals, MSU had two fluky wins. They barely won in a monsoon with 5 Michigan turnovers that still went to the final play and won on one of the luckiest plays in college football history. I already mentioned that OSU won one game on a very questionable call. Also, anybody who watched last year‘s game knows that even decent quarterback play would have led to a Michigan victory. How many teams can compete with Ohio State like that with their third string quarterback? And now this year, you have a very talented roster and an excellent coaching staff ready to compete again at the highest level. Also, he is looking at his third top 10 recruiting class in four years.
Things are very bright in Ann Arbor (despite the misleading media and jealous fan bases pointing out third-place divisional finishes without any context). And the best of the era is yet to come. Michigan fans are fortunate to have such an excellent leader for the program. Plus, when you look at their two two chief rivals off the field, Michigan fans have to be grateful to have a leader, a program, and a university that stand for something more than winning at all costs.
6.5
I fully expect we will at 8.5 in a year or two. In Harbaug I trust.
Incomplete so far. Waiting for 1997 to roll around...
I have hope that we can go to the CFP this year. I'll have that hope every year. I was a Junior at Michigan in 1997 and, we were stuck in the 8-4 rut for some time. That team beat #8 Colorado, Notre Dame, #15 Iowa @#15 MSU @#2 PSU, @#23 Wisconsin, #4 OSU and #8 Wazzou. That was a tough schedule and we came in with ho-hum expectations... Another 8-4?
This team can do that. We have a top flight D and could have a service-able to good offense. Sounds familiar.
Well, we are 1-6 in meaningful games since that theft at OSU in 2016 so it's hard to rate it all that high. Since this is a feelings question I will add that Harbaugh's loss of sideline intensity negatively affects my rating more than it probably should; fight is important and the system stole that from us too. Overall I just find myself oddly down right now so I will rate it a 6 but do appreciate the many parallels this year to 1997. I hope the team is pissed off at the world, at each other, at everything. This season is extremely important, that's for damn sure.
After last season, I'm no longer feeling the bliss of his first two years. But I'm still strongly in the happy camp. And, looking back on 2015 and 2016, I still believe my CFB bliss made good sense.
I suppose that means I believe he's clearly the best man for the job and am optimistic about the next decade.
2018 is tricky. I think this could certainly be the nation's best defense and that the offense (with Shea, a new OL coach, and a super WR class becoming sophomores) could rise to the level of average. Which would be enough for a Top 1/2 finish in the conference. (...) Or it could sputter into 9-3/10-2 because the schedule is among the top few in difficulty nationally.
The other day, I guess as a form of self punishment, I watched a replay on the 2010 Illinois game —- the no defense played here 65-63 win that got The team 7 wins and a bowl game. That game was a hot mess and demonstrated the lowering of the overall talent level. Denard and some solid guys on offense and Mike Martin on defense. Greg Mattison and Brady Hoke took that defense and made it play above it’s head in 2011. Coaching does matter.
So, talent level is definitely up, coaching is definitely up, and the overall trend is good. Some gaps with the O-line and QB, but looks like that has been addressed. We’ll see. I’m optimistic. Just need to breakthrough against OSU and keep the football gods at bay vs. MSU.
Incomplete but looking much better.
I'd give him a Success-incomplete grade right now.
First three years he is 4-8 vs good/great competition (OSU, MSU, Wisky, PSU, FSU). All but one of the 8 losses was winnable (OSU '15). That speaks to how close Michigan is as a program, but also speaks to it's current inability to get over the hump. 24-3 vs everyone else shows Michigan is a good program once again.
If he can go 3-2 this year in the good/great matchups (OSU, MSU, Wisky, PSU, ND) bringing his record to 7-10 in those matchups I think we can call things a success through 4 years considering the state of the program at his arrival.
Should Michigan go 0-5 or 1-4 through that stretch I think his seat has to at least get mildly warm. 2019 would be a big year to prove his metal should that happen. Regardless the program is in a much better position than it was in December of 14.
I rate it a 9.66/13
Incomplete for me. Has he taken the program back from the depths? Absolutely. This program is leaps and bounds beyond where it was in Hoke's final year. But it still has plenty of ground to make up. Especially in the rivalry game department.
You can call three of his losses to MSU/OSU flukes or incredibly bad luck, and yes, those did play a part. But those teams still as a whole didn't do enough to win the biggest games of their season. Michigan had chances to put all of those games away and failed to do so. A single first down at the end of either the '15 MSU game or '16 OSU game ices both of those games and puts Harbaugh at a far more respectable looking 3-3. Or tackling Curtis Samuel as he's running 10-15 yards behind his own LOS. Or not throwing a pick six/fumbling the ball with a yard to go for a TD.
There's absolutely a lot to like. Elite defenses, far better play-calling, you see the player development. Especially on defense. But Harbaugh is getting paid an exorbitant amount of money to beat OSU and MSU. Not compete with them. Beat them. He's doing a lot of things very well, but he's failing in the area that arguably matters most in his job description: beating your rivals. The circumstances of those losses are irrelevant. Losses are losses. That's what history remembers most. Not the circumstances of your loss. Just that you lost. I wouldn't dream of firing him right now, or even if he loses those games again this year. As many of us here say, who will you get that's any better? But you asked me for a grade, and that I think is a very honest and fair grade.
B+, honestly.
1-5 vs rivals and no division/conference titles is a negative for sure.
But, he’s been extremely unlucky in rivalry games and overall. They’ve led or been within on score at the half or later in every game I believe. Back-to-back 10 won seasons with 3 losses by 5 points in the 2016 season. Great defenses year after year. Last year, they lose 17-18 starters and their starting QB and bottom out at 8-5 which could’ve easily been 10-3 with some breaks.
Year 1 was a 9.5 out of 10
Year 2 was an 8 out of 10
Year 3 was a 5 out of 10
So 7.5 out of 10. First of all, he walked into a fantastic roster. The team had NFL talent all over the field. Rudock was pretty good for a 1 year transfer. Obviously we're not happy with the rivalry games record. I think my biggest concern though is coaching staff turnover, it has been substantial every off season so far. I don't think any other program approaches out coaching turnover the last 3+ seasons.
For 2018 I am expecting 8 wins, do that and lose to ND, MSU, and OSU and it will be a 4 out of 10 season, beat 1 of them and win 9 and it's a 7 out of 10 season, beat 2 and win 10 and it's an 8 out of 10, beat all 3 and win 11+ and it's 10 out of 10.
11/10. People are quick to forget the painful ten years before Harbaugh.
Harbaugh has perhaps met expectations, but no better. He's had good to very good seasons, but no great ones. In three years, he has not won a single game that he wasn't expected to, and has lost at least one game every year that he shouldn't have. Recruiting has not produced the flood of elite prospects flocking to Harbaugh that people predicted, and the '19 class is heavy with "I trust the coaches" type players. Harbaugh has yet to develop a QB, despite being touted as the best at that in the business.
if someone had told you when he was hired that after three years, Harbaugh would be 1-5 against OSU and MSU, 1-2 in bowls, and would not have finished any better than third in the division, would you have said "Wow, that's great..much better than I would have expected!"? Neither would I.
You are underestimating the recruiting. 2019 is 9 in the country and 2 in the big right now. Might not be pulling In the Osu or bama classes, but he’s had some big time recruiting wins.
He wasn’t won any games he wasn’t supposed to, but there weren’t many games where M wasn’t favored. That undersells some of the big wins he has had. People underrate some of the wins, wisky, the psu beat down, Colorado, the bowl game against Florida, I think because they didn’t come against the rivals.
We've got maybe three guys in the class who are worth getting excited about. All of the rest are serious "I trust the coaches"-type projects. And the 2018 class was ranked 24th. The actual talent we've been pulling in does not make us look like a perennial powerhouse for years to come.
There have been more than enough games where we weren't favored, and Harbaugh has lost every single one. He's lost every single road game against a quality opponent. He's lost far more games he should have won than he's won games he should have lost.
About like the software update here: Much ballyhooed, tons of potential, but largely disappointing so far. C or C-.
The first two years I have no complaints about. Last season was a disappointment, with the bowl game a miserable low point. Looks like Jimmy is doing what he can to make corrections. But we are now in the best conference in college football and, unfortunately, Big Two Little Whoever is a thing of the past.
Saying "if Harbaugh doesn't achieve this or that this year. . . !" is dumb. We're not his masters and he's up against a lot here. OSU is a semipro outfit, PSU should still be in jail, and MSU should be facing sentencing. My ask is that we are competitive in our games like year-before-last and that we are never getting punked/intimidated. Because you had glimpses of that last year, and it went with a certain look of fear in Jimmy's eyes, and I had believed I would never see that.
Being a real competitor in the B1G East, alas, may be all we are able to demand for a long time to come.
Can't believe there isn't an edit function. Some of the juice has definitely drained out of this thing.
I'm going to call it a wild success. Both 2015 and 2016 were fun seasons. Yeah, 2017 sucked, but given the coaching dysfunction that became apparent as the season progressed, along with the broken roster of QB's, I think 8 wins was okay. Not happy they seemed to lay an egg in the second halves against MSU, OSU, and (NT)USC, but it appears that he made drastic changes to fix those issues. That's all we can ask - that the head coach fix the issues he sees.
We've seen some pretty damn good games that he coached (2015 Utah, MSU, UF; 2016 OSU and FSU; 2017 OSU), along with some clunkers (2015 OSU; 2016 Iowa; 2017 MSU). But the overall state/perception of Michigan's football program is far better today than it's been since a few years before Carr retired. If that bothers you, perhaps you should find another team to root for.
Hopefully, the tough schedule this year won't get in the way of a playoff appearance.
I love me some Harbaugh!!!
Thank you for getting me as pumped for season as the there are....threads!
Can’t wait for this year!!!
We gonna kick some ass!!!!
Go Blue!!!
Way better than the last two guys. WAY, WAY better.
That being said I would love to have a time machine and be able to go back to the first prediction thread made here after he was hired (it probably got posted 45 seconds after the announcement) and say "I predict over the next three years we'll go 0-3 against OSU, 1-2 against MSU, 1-2 in our bowl games and not even play in the B1G title game once" and see what would happen.
My guess is the down votes for that prediction would be staggering.
Yes, they would have. If people are being honest, they went in to the Harbaugh era expecting more than they've gotten so far. A lot of people were predicting strong NC contention for 2018, and we're still not close to that.
Being better than the last two guys is a pretty low bar, frankly. Not sure why so many people are using that as a measuring stick.
Exactly.
8.5-9 - I’ve been guilty of being unrealistic in my expectations and irrational in level of disappointment at some points the last couple seasons.
But stepping back and looking at where the program is and where it was, Harbaugh has been largely successful in areas that he can control. We've been in a position to win nearly every big game (except 2015 OSU, 2017 PSU). OSU/ MSU record is an issue, but barring a few devastating finishes and unlucky breaks, we could easily be 3-3 or 4-2 in those games, and there wouldn’t be a debate. We do have to start catching a break or two, or being good enough throughout games to not leave it to chance, but we are right there. I have high expectations for this season.
As of 7/24/2018, approx. 12:13 PM...
It's been a failure. Not a complete failure. Not a dumpster fire. But a failure nonetheless. Starting on 9/1, it could quickly change, and I sure hope it does. But let's think about it as of today:
- Losing record against MSU
- No wins against OSU, and again gave up 30+ to them twice in regulation.
- Not even a divisional title, let alone a conference title
- No victories in premier bowl games
- Entering year 4, QB is still a complete question mark. Same with the O-Line. I think it's fair to assume everyone thought this would be the strength of the team at this point.
- Road games against teams with a pulse continues to be the biggest roadblock of the program
- Michigan played 5 teams with a strong pulse in year 3 and lost to all of them while turning over the ball 13 times. That's a joke.
- I am not so sure about the future either. The team should be great this year, but the last decade plus has shown a road game against a ranked opponent is an automatic loss. That means at least a 3 loss season (to all of the rivals to boot), maybe more depending on @Northwestern and home against Wisconsin and PSU.
- Looking past 2018, recruiting is probably not at the level where we want it to be, and the schedule doesn't get any easier in upcoming years. I don't like thinking about what Michigan would look like in 2019 assuming Gary, Bush, Hudson, Hill, Long and Shea all leave.
I know the last two are projections and aren't indicative of the present situation, but I have hard time believing people find his first three years to be a success. I'll accept my downvotes (even though it won't affect my points) but I really hope Harbaugh has his "What's your deal" moment this fall or there isn't going to be any shine left on this staff.
This is how I feel.
Maybe not a failure, but definitely a disappointment. There are signs things are improving and there are signs that we're going to see more of the same.
People keep saying that if a single play goes different then there are more wins against the rivals and everything looks better. I agree with that. 2016 was so close to being a playoff year. But it wasn't. It's also true that the team hasn't been good enough to put itself in a position where one fluke play or call won't change the outcome.
And the reason for that is the offensive performance.
The quarterback situation and the O line situation is surprising and definitely falls way below what everybody was expecting when Harbaugh was hired. Anybody saying anything else is lying to themselves. These were staples of Harbaugh at Stanford.
Remember ... he was the quarterback whisperer. Remember ... mgoblog was breaking down how difficult the Harbaugh offense was to prepare for due to all the shifting and how the o-line/tight ends dominate and create mismatches
Harbaugh also has had bad luck.
2016 was his best team so far. Both OSU and MSU were on the road. 2017 was rebuilding and both those games were at home. Now in 2018 those games are on the road again.
Is that the biggest deal in the world? No. But it just shows that those little breaks aren't lining up for Harbaugh so far.
You're not wrong about a lot of that but I think 'failure' is a bit strong. I'm a glass-half-full kind of guy so I wanted to respond to a few of your points:
- Michigan may not have won a division title under Harbaugh thus far but keep in mind that with Penn St., Mich. St and Ohio St., this is the toughest division in the toughest conference in college football. It won't be easy. Not winning this division is not necessarily a sign of failure.
- Michigan did lose several games last year, but they lost to legitimately good (even great) teams and with the exception of Penn State, they were all competitive Ls. 4 of their losses came to teams that finished in the top 15 (#5 OSU, #7 Wisc, #8 PSU, #15 MSU).
- Michigan has a QB now, so there should be more reasons to be optimistic this year. Last year was a disaster because Speight went down and Peters and O'Korn were terrible. That shouldn't happen this year [crossing fingers that Patterson doesn't get hurt].
- Additionally, we've only been to one premier bowl game during Harbaugh's time and that was a down-to-the-wire classic against a great Florida State team. Last year's bowl was a mess but in Harbaugh's first year Michigan stomped a Florida team with an excellent defense.
There's still a fairly small sample size to choose from so its possible all of these factors improve under Harbaugh (of course, it's also possible they get worse). If this was Year 9 and Michigan still had a bad record against rivals and in bowl games, then yes I'd be more inclined to say it's a failure. But I think there is reason to believe things will improve with time.
I think the important thing to keep in mind is that Michigan has been strong enough to play competitively against excellent teams. And that is the big difference. We have to keep things in perspective and remember that prior to Harbaugh, Michigan was not competitive against top teams like this.
I also like to think that some of the bounces will finally start to go Michigan's way this year. And when they do, everybody better look the f*** out.
I agree “failure” might be a little strong but if my choices are success or failure, then I’m going the way I did.
Regarding the division, I agree winning in the East is never going to be remotely close to easy. But at the same time, at what point do we say either “not winning the division is a failure” or “we no longer expect Michigan to contend for anything and we’re content with being Tennessee north” because I feel like we’re quickly moving towards the latter.
Yes, we are in a tough division, but somehow, someone manages to actually win it every year, without complaining about luck, or weather or officiating or anything else. Just never Harbaugh. Playing "competitively" is not good enough, nor is simply doing better than Hoke or Rodriguez.
My goodness. Thank you! Finally someone says it.
Agree with everything you stated. Those road games against ranked teams should be looked at as auto losses bc apparently we can never win them. I understand people's optimism but at this point, it's a put up or shut up time. We're always optimistic before every season and it seems like we ALWAYS get let down. As of now, 7-5 or 8-4 this season is my prediction..hope I'm wayyyy wrong
So far? 7 out of 10.
No national titles, no conference titles, no divisional titles. Getting better and and will challenge very soon but up til now? Meh.
I love where this team is headed and honestly I'm not mad about the loses we have had. The worst feeling was losing to Penn State last year (I can't stand them) but I have the general feeling that these Harbaugh teams know what they are doing. When his teams play bad and lose it's usually not by much and you can attribute it to a bad football day. With Rich Rod or Hoke you could just feel the team was lost and kinda hopeless at some points. I think if we can get much improved on the oline then there is no team that we can't beat.
Is we can’t win and turn the final corner this year it’s not gonna happen and I can see things getting worse before better again w Jim.
I hope we tear S**T up this year and blast OSU and MSU. But it all starts w the Golden Domers. This game will dictate our season.
Good - I will give him a high "B" and a chance for some extra credit to get to a "B+".
He's
110% committed
4.2 stars on 247 but only a low
3 star on rivals
A+ in Academics
plus his volume is turned up to 11 :)
but only a
B+ on the field.
lost too many games we should have won even if we were in a lot i didn't expect to be.
I do feel strangely better about a top 3 defense even with the QB struggles than if Harbaugh was pulling QB whisperer magic out of his ass but the D was losing the games.
So far 7/10
Incomplete. Still hasn't beaten Ohio State, losing record to Sparty, no conference titles, no national titles. UM is where only hardware matters. I'm sick of moral victories.
fail. he cant beat his 2 main rivals and his development of OL and QB has been awful. he gets paid to beat OSU MSU and win championships period.
I give the Harbaugh era a solid B, although I expect that to improve.
28-11 is a C- where I come from.
I am not sure why the words “unrealistic expextations” are ever invoked. That would imply that the expectation was to win 3 National Championship or even 3 Big Ten titles entering year 4. But realistically the expextations after three seasons were:
- Re-establish dominance in the MSU rivarly
- Stop the OSU rivalry from being lopsided
- Play in the Big Ten championship game.
- Develope a top 10 recruiting program.
Not sure how that is unrealistic for a program that is as prominent as MIchigan and has literally given Harbaugh an unlimited budget to hire staff and invest in the program.
You look at where Penn State was in Year 3. A program that had a lot more to overcome than Michigan and that says it all.
We have to stop trying to find fancy ways to justify mediocrity and hold the program to the standard it deserves.
But.....but....Franklin can't coach! He's just gotten lucky and fallen backwards into back to back 11 win seasons with a B1G championship under his belt!
It's odd. Year 4 and no good QB play and no good OL play, yet everywhere Harbaugh goes he has good to great QB and OL play almost immediately. Skill positions are good tho and the defense is ridiculous.
I say he's doing fine. 8/10.
Harbaugh has been nothing short of outstanding. He inherited a 5-7 that was weak and had major recruiting holes. Somehow he took that mess and IMMEDIATELY made it a 10-win team - and would've had 11 wins but for a once-in-a-generation fluke play.
Then he took those same Hoke players and came within 1 play and some very bad refereeing from a B1G East title and probably trip to the CFP.
Then he has the team with the least experience in all of div 1 and still wins 8 games despite losing the top two QBs to injury.
Injury luck has also been against us, from the QBs and Tarik Black last season to Speight and Grant Newsome the year before. If he inherited a deep team, like Urbz did, it might not have mattered so much, but those injuries were killer. The three positions where Hoke and Borges were worst at recruiting were the places we could not afford major injuries, yet we got them in each.
If Speight and Newsome don't get injured against Iowa in '16, we probably run the table to the CFP. Can you imagine last year's team with a healthy Newsome at LT and Cole at C instead of Kugler? That's a much better team.
The first three seasons have each been spectacular coaching, given the circumstances, and most of the bad things were flukes (MSU '15, injurie) or beyond his control (OSU '16 refs, injuries, lack of depth, youth in '17). He fixes what negatives in his control (OL coaching, strength & conditioning). Our image is improved, our recruiting is much better, and now we get a fully weaponized Harbaugh team in 2018.
The ship is back on course, and we could not have asked for much more. We are winning and doing it with integrity - the Michigan Way.
WHO'S GOT IT BETTER THAN US?
so far...B-minus...
I look at it as a success so far. Harbaugh turned the ship around faster than expected year one. Year two was dominant other than some poor luck. I thought year 3 went as expected given our youth and some bad luck.
This should really be the year but the schedule is rough.
on a 10 point scale I would say a 7 as of this date. I think after this year that is going to move up to a 9. The only game I still can't talk about or just start fuming thinking about it is the 16 Ohio Game. That game should have not been lost. I think the best called game of his tenure was last years Ohio game he just didn't have the horses to execute. I believe this is the year for Jim and the team to turn the table and we beat Ohio and MSU if Shea can remain healthy and our o-line progresses and protects him. That being said I would not want any other coach as Michigan's head coach other then the current man in charge.
Really good. Michigan was in a deeper hole than almost anyone acknowledges. Two major unlucky heartbreakers have made the difference in perception more than anything else. Some would argue more than two, but I'm referring to MSU punt debacle and OSU OT first down debacle. In a universe where we catch the break on those, it's a completely different perception by fanbase critics and nationally. Maybe Frey/Drevno was a mistake which he tacitly acknowledged.
By any other real metric everything has gone as well as hoped and the arrow is up!
I have to look at it year by year. In year one, he was awesome. After a 5-7 season to go 10-3 and end the season with a win over Florida was great. The 2016 season was how most seasons should go under Harbaugh IMO. There was some huge wins with the only losses tough tight games. That team was contending for the playoffs most of the season. Obviously there was a step back in 2017 with a very, very young roster. The first two seasons were 9/10 for me (10 could only be if there's championships won). This last season would be a 7/10 for a three-year average of 8.3/10.
Good, not great. Certainly in a better spot than we were with Hoke or RichRod.
I have my expectations for this year a little tempered. I expect better play overall, especially on offense, but the schedule is pretty brutal to expect an undefeated run, but I think 9 or 10 wins is attainable.
As I've said elsewhere, Harbaugh wanted improvement on offense, and I think he tried his damndest to make that happen.
Bringing in Shea to upgrade the QB group.
Firing Drevno and hiring Warinner for OL.
Hiring McElwain and Roundtree for the WRs.
Letting Frey go home to FSU and bringing in an actual TE coach in Moore.
Letting Pep have full control of play calling duties might be for the best. I don't think he and Drevno liked each other (and apparently a lot of people didn't like Drev).
And on top of all those changes, as if it were possible, he improved the defensive staff. Brian Smith left for a DC position so they moved Chris Partridge, who I'll never question as a coach cause he's been great everywhere, and then hired Al Washington to replace Partridge with the vipers. And apparently Washington is a great recruiter and is making Harrison think about his recruitment.
The future is very bright with this staff under Harbaugh. I hope he never leaves.