Halfway through the season: Some Michigan stats

Submitted by Bambi on October 7th, 2018 at 10:56 AM

We're halfway through the season and I wanted to list off some stats that I've found interesting to this point when compared to last year:

  • Shea Patterson has thrown for 10 TDs so far and the team 12. Last year as team, the entire year long, we through for 9.
  • Patterson has 3 INTs on 138 pass attempts. Last year we had 10 as a team on 346 attempts. 
  • Last year we threw for 6.43 Y/A as a team, which was held up by Speight's 7.17 Y/A (O'Korn and Peters at 6.2). This year as a team we're at 8.55 Y/A and Patterson is at 8.6.
  • Last year our WRs caught 97 passes for 1142 yards, or 11.77 yards per catch. This year our WRs have caught 57 passes for 761 yards, or 13.35 Y/C. Last years numbers include the scattered catches from Ways, Harris, McDoom, and Crawford (all gone) and the numbers from Black (hasn't played yet this year).
  • Our leading receiver last year was Grant Perry with 307 yards. Gentry is leading the team this year with 306, followed by Nico with 265.
  • Our WRs last year caught 3 TDs (1 by Black, Crawford and Perry), and none after Cinci in the 2nd game. This year we have 9 TD catches by WRs. 2 of our 3 WRs who caught TDs last year haven't played for Michigan this year.
  • We have allowed 8 sacks so far this year in 6 games (3 against ND). Last year we gave up 36 throughout the year (7 against PSU alone). If we went through the year allowing 16 sacks (our current pace), that would have been tied for 16th fewest in the country last year.
  • Michigan's defense has not recovered a fumble so far this year (the only "fumble recovered" was the muffed punt by Nebraska). Michigan's defense recovered 6 last year, with 3 being in the opener against Florida and one being on the last play by Purdue.
  • Michigan has 5 interceptions so far this year. Last year Michigan intercepted 10 passes.
  • Will Hart is averaging 52 yards per punt so far this year. Last year Michigan averaged 40.

Larry Appleton

October 7th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^

It’s astounding how few turnovers we force.  I know it’s random, but it seems like we’re due a 4-5 TO game soon.

Bambi

October 7th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^

Interceptions I think we're fairly normal/average at. We were at 4 picks going into yesterday which was tied for for like 43rd or something. 5 would be close to top 30.

Fumbles is where we're lacking. Maybe it's a form thing, but according to most advanced stats people the only correlation with turnovers is a marginal one with sack rate/havoc rate. It seems like we've probably mostly gotten unlucky on that end, like how we got insanely lucky Hoke's first year.

Bambi

October 7th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^

Higdon, Wilson and Evans are all averaging 5.7+ YPC. The only other RBs with 10 plus carries are Turner and Samuels, averaging 5.5 and 5.3 YPC.

As a whole those 5 have 1,054 yards on 182 carries, or 5.8 YPC. Take away the last two and we have 5.85 YPC.

Last year our top 3 backs had 387 carries for 2227 yards, or 5.75 YPC. If you start to add in Walker/Samuels (4th and 5th back) those numbers drop more.

So on the whole pretty stagnant/slightly better (although last year we were better later in the season obviously). This is without factoring in Shea vs QBs last year.

JonnyHintz

October 7th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^

This year so far we’re at 5.1 yards per carry as a team, last year we finished 4.4 yards per carry. 

Overall last year we finished 99th nationally at 5.2 yards per play, so far this season we are 26th nationally at 6.5 yards per play.

DrMantisToboggan

October 7th, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^

I thought Shea would be really good, but he’s surpassed my expectations. Passer rating over 160 (think my guess was mid to upper 150s), 8.6 ypa, 3:1 TD-INT ratio, and 69% completion (niiiiiice). He’s been super efficient.

Winchester Wolverine

October 7th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^

The passing game is night and day compared to last year. Yesterday's game gives me a lot of hope for this gauntlet coming up, especially on the offensive side. Seems that the line, receivers, tight ends, etc. may have gelled at the perfect time.

Steve-a-wolverine-o

October 7th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^

Patterson >> QBs last year

2nd year WRs >> true freshman WRs

Also it is not completely fair to compare stats between first half of this season with an entire season because we play better teams down the stretch.  Let’s pound some of those ranked teams defenses coming up on our schedule and keep this trend alive. I know we can win every game if we play our best and don’t end up with crap luck. 

JonnyHintz

October 7th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^

 I mean in theory you’re correct, but if you look at the early season stretch last season and compare it to this year, we certainly can see the trend is still accurate. Last year we struggled with Air Force and Cincy for crying out loud. 

The simple fact that Michigan is now ABLE to put away inferior competition is in and of itself a significant improvement over last season. 

Alumnus93

October 7th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^

That's all great, but I will tell you one stat that Harbaugh is erring in...getting the ball to Grant Perry... the dude never drops a ball, and is as clutch as it gets... we are gonna miss this guy, believe it.  He is VERY underutilized.

Barn Animal

October 7th, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^

What a difference a week makes, last week I posted a thread on this and everyone was like “yeah!”, now you get negged.

Honestly though the short passing game was far better this week, including a great  slant by Perry to get a conversion on third and ten.

teldar

October 7th, 2018 at 3:59 PM ^

i know why i posted it twice. I think i tried to edit it to say that there may well have been some 6 yard crossing routes going on and Patterson decided to throw it to Gentry instead because he was open. The short routes may be there, but it looks like Shea isn't getting a quick enough read on a lot of the short routes to get it to the receiver on time. As a guess. He's holding onto the ball an awful long time a lot. 

I think those routes are probably there, but Shea's still getting comfortable with the offense and not ready for some of them... and he likes throwing it to Gentry downfield.

 

mwolverine1

October 7th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^

According to college football reference, Shea Patterson is at 9.1 adjusted Y/A. That is the best number in Michigan history by nearly a full yard (among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts). Jim Harbaugh is 2nd with 8.2.

freelion

October 7th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^

Competition gets better in the back half of the schedule but I don't expect a big dropoff in stats because the team is improving. I think our passing game will torch Wisconsin and MSU which have weak secondaries and we will trash Indiana and Rutgers. Even OSU's defense is not that great.

I expect the defense to hold up well also despite dline injuries. The back 7 is very strong and will give all of our opponents fits.

Sambojangles

October 7th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^

I would expect the stats to come back down a bit as we go through the far more difficult portion of the schedule. On the other hand, it may be offset by further development, particularly the OL and Shea getting more comfortable. In any case, the improvement on Offense is clear based on just the eye test and the stats validate that. It's encouraging and I hope that it holds up through the rest of the season. 

Hotel Putingrad

October 7th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^

The pass protection has been surprisingly good. Even when Shea leaves the pocket it seems like he's doing so to pick up yardage or get a better throwing angle, rather than being hurried by pressure.

I have a hunch our turnover luck will improve the second half of the season. Or at least I hope it will.

Sten Carlson

October 7th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^

Wonderful improvement by the team!

I know that the whole "saving play for …" meme gets everyone riled up in here, and I am not going to fuel that debate.  But, I've always thought that Harbaugh's biggest strength in game planning is that he's got an amazing blend of stubbornness AND creativity.  Meaning, he's shown opposing DC's that he -- with a game like the NW game -- is perfectly willing to play smash-mouth football, rely upon his amazing defense and good/great kicking game, even when he's coming from behind.   But, in reality -- like we saw yesterday against a very fast, aggressive Maryland defense -- it's all really a rouse to get you sucked into the box and exploited.  For a rouse to work it MUST be sold with the utmost sincerity and conviction.

It's been there all along, but it just needed 1) a QB that could hit the passes when the opposing defense was sucked exploitable -- think JOK vs. OSU '17; and 2) an OL/RB/FB combination that can keep the offense on schedule -- so much fewer TFL's in the running game and sacks in the passing game.

The Big Tests are coming, but I think that Harbaugh has put a lot on film for the opposing DC's to have to wrangle with, but most importantly, the team is executing both the base run sets and the "gotcha" plays at a high level -- it could be slightly higher at times, IMO, and the refs have really hurt those numbers, but it's WAY better than last year.  With regards to the defense forcing turnovers it's odd that we don't force more fumbles.  I think the emphasis is on sure tackling rather than stripping the ball.  That's fine with me, to be honest.  Similarly, I think with the INT's -- not that I have any stats to back it up -- but I think that playing tight man coverage limits them a bit as the defense often has it's back to the QB.  When we do get INT's the are either amazing individual coverage plays, or in those rare zone instances -- at least in my mind.

Go Blue, Beat Wisconsin!