Good vs Great Coaching and what are reasonable expectations?

Submitted by ak47 on

I know there has been a lot posted on this and I also want to preface this with I don't believe Harbaugh should be fired but I wanted to take a look at what seperates good from great coaches and what we should reasonably hold as expectations.

Michigan has some structural advantages due to recruiting, even with Hokes last two classes being mediocre by Michigan standards they were still higher rated than the vast majority of our opponents.  An average coach could coach most games to a stalemate and win the vast majority of games simply by just not losing to mediocre less talented teams.  As a result the actual value of a coach at Michigan isn't determined by win totals by performance against teams that have similar levels of talent or are having a good season.  So I choose to look at results vs teams that were ranked in two ways, both whether they were ranked at the time (because that is what makese something a big game) and end of season rankings because that is what is probably a better determinant of whether that team was good.

In 2015 vs teams ranked at the time: 3-2, vs teams ranked at the end of season 2-3 

In 2016 vs teams ranked at the time: 1-2, vs teams ranked at the end of season: 3-2

2017 is still incomplete but to this point 1-2 vs teams ranked at the time.

So to this point Michigan is essentially .500 against teams that you look at to determined whether a coach is a good recruiter or actually a good coach. with a 5-6 record against teams ranked at the time and 5-5 against teams ranked at the end of the season.

In comparison here was Hoke's performance agaisnt the same subsets.

2011: vs teams ranked 2-1, end of season 2-1

2012: vs teams ranked 0-4, end of season 1-5

2013 vs teams ranked 1-2, end of season 1-2

2014 vs teams ranked 0-3, end of season 0-3

So this clearly shows that Harbaugh is a superior coach to Hoke and that Hoke really couldn't coach agaisnst any team they weren't physically superior to.  However setting brady hoke as the bar is setting the bar really low.  So while we acknowledge it can be much worse than Harbuagh (hence why I started this by saying I don't want him fired) I also wanted to compare him against an eltie coach and look at Saban's first three years.  When Saban came in Bama was coming off a previous 4 years of 4-9, 6-6, 10-2, and 6-7.  So not exactly a powerhouse and I think a fair comparison in terms of walking into generally superior talent but a bad atmosphere.

2007 vs teams ranked 2-3, end of season1-3

2008 vs ranked teams 3-2, end of season 2-2

2009 vs ranked teams 6-0

So Harbaugh is essentially one year behind Saban and if he can have a good year next year with an experienced team of his recruits would essentially be on the same path.  You are essentially 6 inches from Harbaugh and Saban having the same success rate vs ranked teams through 2 years.  This year is obviously dissapointing but assuming it is a blip Harbuagh has performed relatively well vs ranked teams to this point.  Hope this calms some people down.  Next year is a big year, I think Harbuagh has earned this year as a mulligan. 

Also beat OSU.

MGoBoard

allintime23

November 19th, 2017 at 4:56 PM ^

It’s so frustrating to keep seeing these posts. You can’t compare this teams youth, experience or lack of depth with any of Hokes teams. Sorry. I also hate to use injuries because coaches like Tom Izzo use injuries as excuses so much but this has been a rough year health wise. Also if Harbaugh wins two less games next year and even fewer in three years we can make Hoke comparisons. If he can finish with nine wins after the bowl I consider this year a huge success. Before he came we hadn’t had 29 wins in three seasons since the early 2000’s. It’s 2017, get off his back and let the guy do his thing.

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 15225

ak47

November 19th, 2017 at 5:05 PM ^

Its not like he has had young inexperienced teams his entire tenure.  Last year Michigan had one of the most experienced senior laden teams in the country.  Both walked into a team that had talent and roster holes from poor recruiting strategy.  Rich Rod took one olinemen before Hoke took over, sure Hoke's line class didn't pan out but its not like he walked into a perfect roster.  Both took that experienced team to a good but not great season.  

Next year is the make or break year, I don't give a fuck about scheduling, we will have one of the most talented and experienced teams in the country built entirely on Harbaugh recruits, if you can't win with that you can't win. But this isn't the year to panic, next year would be.

Joined: 05/05/2011

MGoPoints: 33614

Bluenin

November 19th, 2017 at 5:33 PM ^

Fickle fans and media are! Excerpt from a story a few years ago about Dabo, that sounds an awful lot like what some are saying about Harbaugh! Dabo on the hot seat?: At what point does the habitual Clemsoning begin to wear on the fan base? Last week’s loss to Florida State was both unbelievable and unacceptable. Clemson had every advantage in the game, every opportunity to put it away and fumbled — literally fumbled — its chance to beat the defending national champions. Now, don’t get it twisted, I’m not putting Clemson coach Dabo Swinney on the hot seat. The man had won 32 games in the past three seasons coming into this year. He’s made Clemson a constant national contender and he’s been to two Orange Bowls, including last year when the Tigers beat Ohio State. But he’s also lost every game he’s coached against South Carolina and the last three losses against Florida State have been frustrating. Swinney is the right man to lead Clemson. He seems to have the program doing all the right things, but he needs to find a way to break the Clemsoning curse or else his days could be numbered much earlier than they should be. https://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf-dr-saturday/a-case-of-the-mondays-…

Joined: 09/19/2017

MGoPoints: 2022

old98blue

November 19th, 2017 at 5:43 PM ^

You know what other coach drove us crazy with his prevent defense in big games like Miami Bo! We should have fired him in 1970 right! And that Lloyd guy with his 8-4 seasons we should have fired his ass too right! And that Yost clown losing to fucking Chicago- Chicago really! Just relax M fans all will be alright we have our guy

Joined: 11/16/2015

MGoPoints: 4450

Frigid

November 19th, 2017 at 6:38 PM ^

Florida isn't going to be a ranked team this year. Michigan lost to MSU, Wisconsin, PSU, and probably will lose to OSU. That's 0-4. So really he's 5-9 which is around 35%. You tried to cherry pick data, but come end of season Harbaugh will be 1-5 vs rivals, 5-9 vs top 25. That's not good.

Joined: 10/11/2017

MGoPoints: -113

NateVolk

November 19th, 2017 at 7:01 PM ^

Every time I read about Harbaugh's seat getting hot, Harbaugh's results being unacceptable, Harbaugh is not the coach that coach X is, Harbaugh isn't into it anymore, Harbaugh needs to to sack a bunch of his offensive staff....Any of those categories: I fall into a deeper despair. Reason is the greatest sports team blog I've ever seen descends comment by comment from former glory into  just another foolish message board. 

And the thing of it is the content from the people in charge has never been better. 

It's the lame brain talking points brought by the readers listed above. It's all exclusively unverifiable whining from know nothings And nothing more. Nobody doing it ever brings any apparent expertise or facts to support their positions. 

Might as well say Mlive on the banner at the top of the page.

I am sorry if that offends certain people. My hope is it gets them to think twice before ranting, search for facts, and not let their attitudes be driven by fear of having to take needling for few months from dorky MSU fans.

 

Joined: 07/19/2010

MGoPoints: 6863

tybert

November 19th, 2017 at 7:16 PM ^

he is really bad in the 1st year or two and moves up to 7-8 wins in his 3rd.

Comparing this lousy season with the 2013 season (Hoke's 3rd year) - after a 2-0 start, we played ugly and barely beat Akron and UConn. One good game vs. Minny. Then wins vs. Indy and NW. We started 11-2 then 8-5 and then 7-6

Since Peters, we've dominated the bad teams and lost a close game to an unbeaten team - down 14-10 when Peters got hurt.

The question that can only be answered next year - is will we get a signature road win - either at ND or MSU or OSU. 

Who knows about Saturday but with O' Korn not expecting a win. But will be there anyway and screaming until hoarse.

I am really hoping we see a motivated, focused, and angry team in our bowl game at end of year 3. What I saw vs. K State in '13 was so bad I shut it off at halftime. 

 

Joined: 11/17/2008

MGoPoints: 8299

Chitown Kev

November 19th, 2017 at 8:03 PM ^

with.

Let's say that the 2 absolute elite teams in the country right now are Alabama and Ohio State...maybe you can throw Clemson in there.

In the case of Ohio State, they have been reloading for awhile...both the SweaterVest and Urban inherited teams loaded with talent...and Cooper inherited quite a bit of talent as well, although that wasn't on the level of Michigan early in his tenure.

I don't recall if this was the same way at 'Bama when Saban was hired but, certainly, Clemson had to be built...for that matter Florida State was suffering from talent defeciencies even before the end of the post-BB era

RR wrecked this program on several fronts, esp. the defense and...not so much in the offense, but adjusting from one offensive scheme to the other has wreaked havoc...

...Brady Hoke, at least, recruited what has become an elite defense and it will always be an elite defense as long as Brown is here...Michigan  is at reload status now.

The talent is there on offense everywhere but...the interior line which continues to be a hot mess,even though it's consierably better that when Harbaugh came to UM...in short, you have to consider where Harbaugh started from...and talent depletion was evident at Michigan going back to the latter stages of the Carr era...in fact, even before Tressell, OSU had as much talent as UM, if not more so other than in the QB position.

Solve the interior line problems...esp. with pass protection and this is a championship-level squad.

Joined: 10/01/2011

MGoPoints: 4970

MGrether

November 19th, 2017 at 10:34 PM ^

Technically, Harbaugh's first recruiting class he had 4 weeks to pull together. The first group of Oline that are really "His" are now Redshirt Freshman/Sophomoros (Spanellis, Bredeson, Onwenu all contributing). 

23 of Harbaughs 29 recruits from his first true recruiting class are now contributors on this team... Many with 3 years of eligibilty left. The jury is still out, but I think this group will do something special heading into next year.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 1523

Tuebor

November 19th, 2017 at 8:01 PM ^

Winning is a cure all. I don't think it is unreasonable to be upset Harbaugh is likely to be 1-5 against our two biggest rivals. With nd, msu, and osu all road games next year he could very likely be 1-8 against our three biggest rivals. That wouldnt be cutting it in my opinion. The scary thing is that I there is no alternative for us at this point. Harbaugh has to cut it, so I hope we start winning soon.

Joined: 03/14/2011

MGoPoints: 17467

Ramblin

November 20th, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^

Here we all are...  Reading and posting...  

Since I'm already here...  Has anyone noticed that most of the talk of firing has been about assistants?  I remember wondering during the Rich Rod debacle why we couldn't just look for a new DC... 

Some small changes in the current regime might be in order.  I'm relatively hopeful that JH will do what needs to be done.  It's just too early to know.

Before anyone loses it on me, I think that we all need to chill out and have some faith/hope.  Constantly changing coaches is a bad idea. 

Joined: 01/09/2011

MGoPoints: 1275

blueblueblue

November 19th, 2017 at 8:06 PM ^

Holy smokes mods, please make these threads stop! Institute some order! Speaking of order, there must be a disorder in the DSM related to the need to enlighten the world with tortuous and torturous, self-serving, pontificatory internet drivel.

Joined: 12/28/2008

MGoPoints: 6630

mfan92

November 19th, 2017 at 9:09 PM ^

I think harbaugh turning hokes team into 10-3 his first season camouflages the fact that harbaugh had to turn around the program completely. We were going to the bottom of the big ten when we are a top program in all of college football. We should be disappointed that we aren't finishing strong in close games but we are doing much better now. We are playing catch up. The top of the conference have been years ahead of us. Everyone hates hearing it but we are young. We need to be more realistic. Everyone had our record 8-4 at best. Us fans just didn't like hearing that. But harbaugh is building the future. With the young talent, there's no reason to hang our heads on this program

Joined: 12/06/2016

MGoPoints: 473

chunkums

November 20th, 2017 at 8:14 AM ^

That's nice, but Vegas had us at 8.5 and people who aren't Michigan fans had similar predictions. They we're right. Also, after losing our starting QB and best WR, it seems silly to say that 8-4 is the "floor." I wonder what Florida State thought their floor was pre-season. I wonder what MSU thought their floor was before going 3-9 last year. Both programs are well established and have elite coaches.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 28975

mfan92

November 19th, 2017 at 11:31 PM ^

Also take into account that the loses starting from last year and this year, look at the injuries. Speight got hurt during Iowa and lost after that. Ohio st was the refs fault. Fsu peppers was out. This year we had Okorn at QB. Wisconsin was close until peters went out. We've had bad luck.

Joined: 12/06/2016

MGoPoints: 473

Frigid

November 20th, 2017 at 7:55 AM ^

Every year, every team loses players to injuries, arrests, and other things. O'Korn played not because of injury, remember he played in the Florida game. Corndog played because JH brought him in here. MSU graduated talent, lost talent due to stupid circumstances and is going to have a better season than Michigan again.

Joined: 10/11/2017

MGoPoints: -113

mfan92

November 20th, 2017 at 9:48 AM ^

Okorn only played the Florida game cuz speight threw back to back picks and kept missing open WRs. And I know it's football and injuries happen that's what I said. But those injuries cost of in big games. Harbaugh is still building depth. But I'm saying with injuries has hurt. Wisconsin had big plays in the pass game against Watson and Kelly-Powell when lavert would've been out there. It's just annoying hearing the state of the program is in the dumps when harbaugh only had 2 recruiting classes so injuries do affect our young team.

Joined: 12/06/2016

MGoPoints: 473

MGrether

November 19th, 2017 at 10:25 PM ^

I understand people's disappointment. 

However, this team replaced 10 defensive starters, 3 Oline, 2 Leading receivers, Starting TE, had an injured to its starting quarterback, left tackle, break out WR, two of its starting RBs, and top corner back (concussion).... And Harbaugh had the team in the lead on an away game against a top 10 team. 

I am tired of the moral victories, too. However, those are a large/tough set of odds to face (many of them lingering gifts from the Hoke era). I personally see a team with a lot of youth and promise. We have a couple young oline that are getting critical game experience, and are improving as run-blockers. DPJ is improving by the week. Gentry has gone from question mark former QB to a serious threat/mismatch. Higdon/Evans/Walker/Samuals have the potential to be special. Peters was making strong improvements before being knocked out. Bush, Winovich, Gary, Hill...

I don't like the taste of defeat or disappointment. However, I can see this young collection of talent, who is getting serious in game experience and a bad taste in their mouth, coming back as a veteran group ready to kick butt. Everyone saw that this down year was coming. Many criticisms of Harbaugh are because he is the victim of his own success - taking a group who couldn't tie their own shoe laces under Hoke, winning 20 games and sending 11 to the NFL. When you are going through hell, keep going.  

(And if Harbaugh can't get the ship straight here in Ann Arbor, who can?)

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 1523

Jeep

November 20th, 2017 at 12:35 AM ^

After reading all these post the only thing I can say is we are what are record is.  We are the winningist team in the hisorty of division one football.  I'm sorry but I'm not going to judge a coaches success at Michigan on his record against Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana and some cupcake non conferance games.   These are givens.

It's all about the success against the contenders and teams with a .500 or better record.   At the very least a coach at Michigan should win at least 70% of these games.  If this isn't happening then someone has to make some hard decisions because we won't be competing at a Big Ten Championships level let alone a National Championship.  Isn't that the goal?

Joined: 11/05/2017

MGoPoints: 159