Good vs Great Coaching and what are reasonable expectations?
I know there has been a lot posted on this and I also want to preface this with I don't believe Harbaugh should be fired but I wanted to take a look at what seperates good from great coaches and what we should reasonably hold as expectations.
Michigan has some structural advantages due to recruiting, even with Hokes last two classes being mediocre by Michigan standards they were still higher rated than the vast majority of our opponents. An average coach could coach most games to a stalemate and win the vast majority of games simply by just not losing to mediocre less talented teams. As a result the actual value of a coach at Michigan isn't determined by win totals by performance against teams that have similar levels of talent or are having a good season. So I choose to look at results vs teams that were ranked in two ways, both whether they were ranked at the time (because that is what makese something a big game) and end of season rankings because that is what is probably a better determinant of whether that team was good.
In 2015 vs teams ranked at the time: 3-2, vs teams ranked at the end of season 2-3
In 2016 vs teams ranked at the time: 1-2, vs teams ranked at the end of season: 3-2
2017 is still incomplete but to this point 1-2 vs teams ranked at the time.
So to this point Michigan is essentially .500 against teams that you look at to determined whether a coach is a good recruiter or actually a good coach. with a 5-6 record against teams ranked at the time and 5-5 against teams ranked at the end of the season.
In comparison here was Hoke's performance agaisnt the same subsets.
2011: vs teams ranked 2-1, end of season 2-1
2012: vs teams ranked 0-4, end of season 1-5
2013 vs teams ranked 1-2, end of season 1-2
2014 vs teams ranked 0-3, end of season 0-3
So this clearly shows that Harbaugh is a superior coach to Hoke and that Hoke really couldn't coach agaisnst any team they weren't physically superior to. However setting brady hoke as the bar is setting the bar really low. So while we acknowledge it can be much worse than Harbuagh (hence why I started this by saying I don't want him fired) I also wanted to compare him against an eltie coach and look at Saban's first three years. When Saban came in Bama was coming off a previous 4 years of 4-9, 6-6, 10-2, and 6-7. So not exactly a powerhouse and I think a fair comparison in terms of walking into generally superior talent but a bad atmosphere.
2007 vs teams ranked 2-3, end of season1-3
2008 vs ranked teams 3-2, end of season 2-2
2009 vs ranked teams 6-0
So Harbaugh is essentially one year behind Saban and if he can have a good year next year with an experienced team of his recruits would essentially be on the same path. You are essentially 6 inches from Harbaugh and Saban having the same success rate vs ranked teams through 2 years. This year is obviously dissapointing but assuming it is a blip Harbuagh has performed relatively well vs ranked teams to this point. Hope this calms some people down. Next year is a big year, I think Harbuagh has earned this year as a mulligan.
Also beat OSU.
November 19th, 2017 at 5:23 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 8:16 PM ^
Meyer lost 2 QB's and won the fucking NC
November 19th, 2017 at 9:14 PM ^
A guy won the lottery last month. Therefore, everyone should buy lottery tickets.
November 19th, 2017 at 5:29 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^
even Peters admitted in a press conference that he was behind on understanding the offense last August.
It may be that he has learned enough to make him the best option right now.
But even Peters admitted that he just could not pick up quickly enough in August camp and that is the reason he fell to third on the depth chart.
November 19th, 2017 at 6:06 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 8:18 PM ^
your basically calling the coaches out as idiots- not that i'm disagreein'
November 20th, 2017 at 1:29 PM ^
It all comes down to the loss against MSU. We could take any of our wins and swap it out for the MSU loss, and the hounds would be at bay. That program was supposed to be in our rearview mirror, sinking in the ashes of a tire-fire off-season, lined up and ready to be destroyed by us. It was a shocking loss, and almost even more shocking was the young talent MSU has shown. If MSU was the MSU of old, which we thought was going to happen, we'd all be good right now.
November 19th, 2017 at 3:52 PM ^
..just one question...
would Bo be happy with the record JH has compiled now in his 3rd year here !?!?
put more lipstick on that pig if you care to....
November 19th, 2017 at 4:00 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^
And his lowest end of season ranking was 8. He beat OSU twice in his first 3 years including the upset of the century. If Harbaugh had come in and won the B1G and beat OSU two of his first 3 years we'd be putting up a new statue outside Schembechler-Harbaugh Hall this summer.
November 19th, 2017 at 4:53 PM ^
BFD. The Big Ten won ONE Rose Bowl in the '70s. It was a pitiful shadow of its former self nationally.
Woody Hayes punching the Clemson player is a perfect representation of that era.
November 20th, 2017 at 1:31 PM ^
Who doesn't want to punch a Clemson player?
November 19th, 2017 at 4:25 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 8:07 PM ^
but Bo wasn't measured based on winning bowl games. He was measured based on first beating Ohio State, and second (and a rather distant second) winning the Big Ten Championship. Now back in those days, beating OSU usually meant winning the Big Ten championship.
November 19th, 2017 at 5:04 PM ^
well, then why don't you cool your fucking jets until 3017.
November 19th, 2017 at 3:49 PM ^
for a coach who has 11 draft picks on a team? At this point in the tenure of Harbaugh its time to start beating some teams regardless if Michigan is favored or not.
November 19th, 2017 at 4:00 PM ^
MSU ... punt fluke. Take that crazy play away and we win. OSU overtime .... we could of easily won that one as well ... we are a fraction away at times of winning those games you and the rest of us want to win. I'm glad we are in the games a majority of the time. I think we will get there for sure ....
November 19th, 2017 at 4:09 PM ^
Moral victories don't count. I think a lot of us on this site like to pretend those losses didn't happen but in fact that did. People point to the fact that Michigan lost 3 games by 5 points last year and whatnot, but the way I look at it was that last year was blown big time. 11 players were drafted from last years team, and a few more could have gone too. No year will ever be perfect. You don't have to have 22 perfect players at every position to win, at some point you just have to go out and win the games, which is something Michigan hasn't done in a long time.
And just to make clear I do not want Harbaugh gone at all.
November 19th, 2017 at 4:38 PM ^
Then what the fuck do you want us to do? Just support your damn team or gtfo
November 19th, 2017 at 4:43 PM ^
We're just fans on a sports blog. This is a place where we discuss out team, so I think we should all continue to keep talking about the team. Not sure why you're getting so hostile.
I'm over the rah-rah everything is going to be amazing, looking out, here comes Harbaugh getting ready to take over college football. I'm going to be a realist. There are things that need to be improved upon, coaching needs to be improved, etc. I hope they can do it, but at this point I need to see it to believe it.
November 19th, 2017 at 5:08 PM ^
"I'm going to be a realist."
Whenever someone says this I automatically translate it to "I'm going to be a pessimist."
Because let's be honest, most of the time that's exactly what it means.
November 19th, 2017 at 10:28 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 10:41 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 5:12 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 5:15 PM ^
Yea and I think Harbaugh and staff know it. Trust the process..something this fan base can't do apparently. Lose 2 starting QB's to injury and all of a sudden the sky is falling. Stop listening to Pete Finefuck
November 19th, 2017 at 8:20 PM ^
Urbs lost 2 QB's also on year
November 19th, 2017 at 4:08 PM ^
I posted this in a different area ... but is probably better suited here.
People go crazy and it's like their whole life evolves around Michigan football and if we are not perfect and winning every possible catagory we are a failure.
JH has not had less than an 8 win season yet. We don't have the depth quite yet and he is in year three. In year 5 he will have ALL his guys and the depth with be there (or should be).
We have had our share of injuries this season and some bounces that didn't go our way. That is football and it happens. We have beaten the teams we were suppose to beat. MSU and OSU never count as it doesn't matter the records as crazy crap happens and throw logic out the window.
I thnk we ALL agree our offense needs to be improved and get better. It IS on the way. I think Peters has shown he is better (IMO) already and will only improve. Then we also have McCaffery back there as well. They both look to be good from what I have seen. Then throw in Ruiz (who has played this yeear), Filiaga, Bredesen, Onwenu plus other OL will be around. We have talent and depth forming and coming in. Black, Collins, DJP all coming back and only freshman ...
I agree the offense needs to be more creative ... We all hope it comes close to catching up to our awesome defense. But really 8 wins is not the end of the world or a terrible season.
We could be FSU right now .... ? Fisher is a good coach and bad seasons can and do happen. I don't dwell on the past. The offense is dragging but this is a great program heading in the right direction. 5 years is the key. Any new coach deserves that and when 5 years comes and the coach is struggling then you maybe think about other options. 8 win seasons isn't a losing effort. Neg me all you want but anything 8 or better I am personally pretty happy with. Content .. maybe not. Do I wish we would win the B10..... yes ... I know we will get there and possibly beyond. We have had some weird games in the past 3 years. Games we could of and maybe should of won but flukes and bad bounces happen.
Happy with our effort against Wis personally and it was bad when Peters got knocked out of the game. He is still learning though and all this game exp is only helping. The fact that I personally thought we had a chance to beat undefeated Wis makes me personally feel good. Also, its not always on the coaches of the "why" we lose. WRs need to catch the tough catches and players need to be in their positions at the right times. We also need a bounce or two to go are way at times as well.
November 19th, 2017 at 3:55 PM ^
everyone chill out. Jim Harbaugh is incredible. I thought this is exactly where we would be record-wise at the beginning of the year. I'm shocked we were able to do it with a 3rd string qb and some of our top offensive weapons injured for the entire year.
I obviously want to see improvement.
But last year was the first time in a long time where I felt confident EVERY single game/matchup, and I expect to feel the same way in years to come.
When was the last time you felt that?
November 19th, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
after we get curb stomped by the suckeyes next week pal
November 19th, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 6:13 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 12:17 PM ^
The real fans will be rooting on the team this saturday. Just like i was through the downpour, i'll be out there in the cold this saturday doing just that.
November 19th, 2017 at 4:22 PM ^
This analysis is going to look a lot different at the end of the year though. We'll likely end up 0-4 against end of year ranked teams (MSU, PSU, Wisconsin, OSU). So, that would make him 5-9 at the end of 3 years. Hoke was 4-8 by your metric.
I agree Harbaugh is a top 10 coach and there is nothing to be worried about long term. In the worst case, he's going to establish us as a Lloyd Carr-type program w/o a 1997 season. But, the metric you are using isn't kind to Harbaugh.
November 19th, 2017 at 8:21 PM ^
At least Carr snagged a NC
November 19th, 2017 at 4:28 PM ^
We're fine. Harbaugh's a pretty good coach and will have us on track for something along the lines of Carr level success. Or perhaps something like where MSU, Wisconsin, Stanford, maybe Washington, or an Auburn are at program wise. Are we going to start winning national championships by the bunches? No, that was never likely. Our recruiting is not great enough, the division is highly competitve now, OSU continues to be fundamentally better positioned to succeed than we are, Alabama exists, etc. I mean it's fine; we're on target to win occasional B1G titles etc.
Some people are going to freak out because they drank too much kool aid and thought Harbaugh was more than he was, eg as good as Saban or Meyer. He's exceptional and maybe the best at building up teams because he does many things well: hires good coaches, recruits well, and his competitive energetic approach is perfect for changing the culture of a struggling program. What he has yet to prove is that he can build and sustain a top notch program, which is a different skillset. I mean, we'll see, the jury is still out. The recruiting while good, is probably not great enough to win national championships. You need more talent than we are acquiring, especially relative to OSU. Two primary approaches to building a NC roster-- one is have talent across the board like Alabama, 2001 Miami, 2004 USC, etc. Or you can have talent in line with what we did in the 2016/2017 classes across all 5 classes, plus a national championship type difference making QB eg Watson, Winston, Newton, Vince Young. Neither is happening at this point. But we can be an 11-2 team or win the B1G if some things come together. We're well positioned for 2019.
November 19th, 2017 at 4:57 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^
Dwell on last year's 3-9 implosion if you want but 2016 is over. We're 11 games into the season and his team is ranked while ours isn't. Wake up indeed. You know, it is possible to dislike Sparty and think Dantonio is a miserable fuck. While also recognizing that in the last decade he's won 3 B1G championships, put together five 11 win seasons, and gone 8-2 against us. Can we try to be at least a little bit objective? I wish he were John L or Bobby Williams but he's a pretty damn good coach unfortunately. That's a level of success that might not be a bad thing to aspire to at this point given the competition.
November 19th, 2017 at 7:40 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 12:20 PM ^
And yet where was he after year 3 at MSU?
November 19th, 2017 at 5:27 PM ^
I guess I just look at the UF & OSU results and say par. Nothing that a dozen other coaches could not have matched or exceeded. There's no Stanford level build on his resume. If you take over at a recruit rich program with a strong winning history and win? That's a par. What JH did at Stanford is an eagle. Same could be said for many others. Dantonio, Peterson, Kelly, Snyder sr. etc. Meyer is a great face/image who's put himself in no lose spots and surprise!! Didn't lose.
November 19th, 2017 at 6:06 PM ^
I don't know what to tell you if you think Urban Meyer is not elite. He's clearly the #2 most accomplished coach in college football currently and it's not close. He has 3 national championships. He's on track for his 6th conference championship and 9th division title. He was a successful assistant. He's been very successful at 4 different schools. He's 174-31. He's 70-8 at OSU. Harbaugh would have to win his next 42 games in a row to match that record, 3.5 years of going undefeated! (and no it's not the same because of the resources and what they inherited but the point is that Meyer wins a shitton of games).
As far as building things, he took a 2-9 Bowling Green team and immediately put up 8 and 9 win seasons. He took a 5-6 Utah team and turned them into 10-2 and then 12-0. The Zook team that he inherited was 7-5 and OSU had 7 losses when he walked in. Yeah, UF and OSU are great jobs and there was talent there. But that doesn't mean automatic success. A dozen other coaches? Well, how did Zook, Shark Fucker, Muschamp, Fickell, etc do? He's done better than Bruce, Cooper and even Tressel and Spurrier. The guy has succeeded and in every job. Combine the 4 seasons before him at each stop and the records were 21-27 before he arrived at those same jobs. The combined records in his first year at each stop: 39-8. Drastic difference at the same programs with him leading those programs.
November 19th, 2017 at 9:16 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 8:23 PM ^
if Urbs isn't elite then nobody is
November 19th, 2017 at 9:43 PM ^
in the way that Phil Jackson is an elite coach...and you don't get much more elite than Phil Jackson...nevertheless, Meyer, like Jackson, has shown the ability to make ''a whole'' out of a team composed of elite athletes...it's what he did at Florida and at OSU...not sure he would have the patience to build a team from scratch...I'd like to see him do it, though.
Saban and Dabo's jobs seem to have been more of a case of doing a rebuild...Jimbo Fisher, as far as I know, is more of a Mack Brown type...time will tell whether he gets into
Harbaugh has actually done both...at Stanford, he built the prg. from the ground up...at San Fran he did more of a Urban/Jackson-type job...
...Harbaugh's task here at Michigan is more like what he did at Stanford than maybe we like to admit.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:31 AM ^
"not sure he would have the patience to build a team from scratch...I'd like to see him do it, though."
The dude went 12-0, won a BCS bowl (1st ever by a non-auto qualifier), finished the season ranked in the top 5, and had the #1 pick in the NFl draft... at Utah.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:46 AM ^
"I guess I just look at the UF & OSU results and say par."
Insane.
Florida:
Galen Hall: 68.6% win %, 0 national championships
Steve Spurrier: 81.33% win %, 1 national championship
Ron Zook: 62.1% win %, 0 national championships
Urban Meyer: 81.25% win %, 2 national championships
Will Muschamp: 57.1% win %, 0 national championships
Jim McElwain: 64.7% win %, 0 national championships
OSU:
Earle Bruce: 75.5% win %, 0 national championships
John Cooper: 71.5% win %, 0 national championships
Jim Tressel: 82.8% win %, 1 national championship
Urban Meyer: 89.7% win %, 1 national championship
November 19th, 2017 at 5:51 PM ^
for Michigan to win a NC does in fact require a really good QB. Michigan is not the sort of place that will win a NC without a plus QB.
The rest: decent talent in the rest of the skill positions (one really good receiver would help a lot), and a really solid D. Of course the o-line would have to be better than the current edition.
But main thing is a QB that is a real difference maker.
Does not seem very hard to imagine Harbaugh getting/developing that kind of QB. Peters or McCaffrey seem like good bets.
Would not have to be a Heisman candidate level guy. Just has to be the sort of guy that gets drafted, sort of like a Chad Henne level guy (but hopefully more mobile, given the evolution of CFB).
November 19th, 2017 at 9:01 PM ^
November 19th, 2017 at 10:03 PM ^
already knows.
But it takes time to get the pieces in place.
Anyway, it seems fairly obvious that this is the plan he is following. And Peters may end up working out and being the kind of guy that can get M to the playoff.
Would probably not work at Michigan to try to build an offense based on a Heisman candidate RB, etc. Harbaugh can attract and develop really good passers/decision makers, and then develop them. To get to the CFB playoff, JH is going to have to do it with excellent QB play.
Sorry man, but Urban Meyer just cannot pull that off. So he has a different model. He tries to do it with excellent skill players, plus a pretty good runner at QB that ends up being just o.k. as a passer.
Different systems. Both can work. But they only work with the right personnel.