Garrett Fishaw's Guesses for Class of 16 - November Edition

Submitted by alum96 on

For those who are not familiar with this guy he is a contributor to Maize 'n Brew and has his own site.  He also went out on a limb with the Walker to UM thing before anyone else I believe. He does a monthly guess of the recruiting class.  Now that we are in the home stretch thought it would be worth getting another guestimate on how it closes with a guy who follows this stuff closely, has some sources, and reads premium boards.

Probably more interesting than any specific name are the comments that up to 4 players (his estimate) could fall under grayshirt / decommit / grades don't work out.  That doesn't include David Reese who we already discussed yesterday as apparently on his way elsewhere.  So that would be 5 players in total currently committed w/ David.

First mentioned by Wolverine247’s Steve Lorenz over the summer, there’s a good chance Michigan will have a couple grayshirts in 2016 ($). But that’s not all. The Michigan Insider’s Sam Webb and Allen Trieu are also hearing that there could be some attrition in the class because of grade issues and parting ways with current commits so they can find a better opportunity elsewhere ($). That would mean up to four more spots being available and 12 more recruits being added to the list overall.

Hence his class - minus David - is "32 people" of which he expects 4 to be in categories above.  So you will see a lot of names below.  Also he has a penchant for being pretty damn bullish on all things UM from my cursory reading so some salt thrown in there.  Along with the normal salt when trying to guestimate such things.

I sorted the future projected commits by his "confidence" level below and took a little blurb off each one, he has much more commentary on his site.

Excellent

  • Pie Young - "may not be the highest wr on the board, but most likely to end up in the class."

Very Good

  • Kareem Walker - "all signs point to UM."
  • Terrance Davis - "While Delance looks to be higher on the board, Davis is the more realistic option at this moment."
  • Chris Daniels - "Daniels makes his first appearance on the list and it’s for good reason. Though it’s not a slam dunk. He officially visits Oklahoma this weekend and they are a legit threat."
  • Rashan Gary - "It’s no secret that UM is in the driver’s seat for Gary but there is still time to go until NSD."
  • Jonathan Jones - "With the linebacker attrition in the class, him still being extremely high on UM, and his official visit coming up next week, it looks like he will indeed have that opening to join the class."
  • Devin Bush Jr - "Bush Jr went from an expected summer commitment, to a lock to end up in the class and now to a toss up."
  • Lavert Hill - "Though he remains committed to PSU, all signs point to him flipping his commitment..."
  • David Long - "All signs are pointing to him not only decommitting from the Cardinal but also favoring and likely choosing the Wolverines. "

Good

  • Isaac Nauta - "But when you add all the pieces together and throw in the turmoil going on in Athens, things look good here for Michigan."
  • Keyshon Comp - "I went back and forth with Jordan Elliott and Camp in this spot for awhile but though Elliott has named Michigan his leader and Camp is still committed to USC, I’ll go with Camp to land this spot at the end of the day."

Out of Left Field

  • Jordan Fuller - "Definitely going out on a limb here on this one."

 

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Not on the List

  • Nordin - UM not in a position to use a scholarship on him so he would need to be convinced to use grayshirt at first.
  • Crawford - Now has childhood dream offer of Oregon.
  • Elliott - Decommitted twice already so hard to trust as a pick.
  • Delance - OSU visit will be huge to move needle
  • Onwuzurike - Too many unknowns
  • Mathis - Can only take 1 other TE and already have Nauta on his list.
  • Kelly - Staff not as high on him as scouting services, OU lean.
  • Murphy - Has yes to set up official, when he does it could get interesting
  • Jackson - Staff loves him, has official vs OSU.

EastCoast Esq.

November 19th, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^

I love Fish, but he always is wildly optimistic.

He's good for a take on why Michigan could be the choice and is somewhat reliable if you adjust his "probabilities" to account for his optimism.

LJ

November 19th, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^

This would basically be the best Michigan class in the rivals/scout era.  It's more "best possible outcome" than "best guess."  But hey, I ain't complainin'.

Sprinkles

November 19th, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^

I had previously thought that 28 was a large class, 32 is huge, talk about getting your guys in quickly. My biggest surprise from that article was the mention of freshman transferring. I would imagine those are either redshirt freshman, or guys who had committed while hoke was around; still a little surprising to me though.

alum96

November 19th, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^

Well it would be a 28 class of offered scholarships.  You could go up higher than that with grayshirts.  But he is not implying it will be 32 even with grayshirts.  He has 32 names because some current commits won't be in the class (and some will grayshirt).

BlueDMD

November 19th, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^

Just read where the extra spots are coming from.  On that note, are we allowed to recruit over 28?  I thought that was a hard limit in the Big Ten?

True Blue Grit

November 19th, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^

right now, but the one caveat is LB.  We badly need a couple guys who are capable of playing early, and if we whiff on either or both Jones and Bush, that could be a problem. 

jmambro13

November 19th, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^

The attrition that will come after the season will be very interesting to follow. For a lot of guys you can see the writing on the wall but this staff will also have to make some tough calls on some guys that in other years may still be given an opportunity. I trust this staffs judgement because they know what it takes to be successful because they have been successful. Based on year 1, the future of Michigan football is in good hands. 

I enjoy reading MGoFish's take on recruiting because yes, he is glass half full, but at the same time he is very detailed as well. He provides a compact analysis of all that is heard from premium sites/ his own sources and brings them to one place. The biggest thing is that he does not claim that all the info that he puts down in his best guess lists or his updates are his own and gives credit where it is due. He doesn't steal for his own gain and is making accurate assessment of all the recruiting info that is out there. There is a lot to be said about what he does because in todays day of recruiting there are lots of recruiting "experts" 

AC1997

November 19th, 2015 at 10:27 AM ^

Would have been nice to list the positions for the guys in your list after their names.  While I follow recruiting, keeping track of all these names is tough.  

bseidenb

November 19th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^

That would be a fantastic haul.  I think everyone gets way too worked up about the class size when discussing their projections.  It is just way too far out and there are too many variables, especially when accounting for presumed future attrition or decommits.  For example, this summer how many articles/posts did we read about all the attrition that never happened with certain linemen, WRs and DBs?   

Laser Wolf

November 19th, 2015 at 10:52 AM ^

I enjoy Fish's recruiting updates for informative purposes, but find it hard to place much value on these types of predictions because they're SO over the top optimistic. But good if taken at face value.

Unfortunately I had to unfollow because there is so much detritus mixed in his Twitter feed. Yes I get that you are a Detroit fan but I would venture a guess and say a very very VERY small percentage of your followers followed based on your Lions and Pistons takes. It's not that he can't express those opinions, but it was just too much in relation to the amount of Michigan news and notes.

kevin holt

November 19th, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^

Not sure if the confidence levels are from him or if you sorted them into your own feeling of his feeling. But the "Very Good" level seems to contain wildly different levels of optimism. There are a couple toss-ups (or even recruits that lean elsewhere) mixed in with very likely commits. Also I'm wearing maize glasses here but Gary would be higher for me than most of those in the same category. We've been burned before, of course, but I really think he'll go blue.

alum96

November 19th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^

Those are his confidence levels. 

I think the 1st two categories are mostly guys who have been UM leans forever (Davis, Jones) or guys rumored to flip forever (Hill) or guys most think UM is in the lead for at this point (Gary, Walker) so not unreasonable on most.  Long and Daniels are probably the most unlikely of that group just in terms of UM being "late momentum" on those 2 but had good recent visits.  Bush Jr many thought would commit this summer despite FSU bloodlines.  So you could make a legit case for any and all of those 1st two groups.  Of course it won't all work out so pretty in the end.

The bottom 3 guys are more reaches as he has noted.

BlueWolverine02

November 19th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^

interesting he says the coaches aren't as high on Kelly as the websites are. when I watched his junior film I saw a great athlete but he looked really raw, more of a finesse player. in some ways Reeses' film was more impressive, more of a hard nosed player. can't deny Kellys athleticism though.

LBSS

November 19th, 2015 at 12:47 PM ^

You can be a highly rated high school football recruit whose childhood favorite team was Oregon. Oregon has been really good for about six years (Chippy Chip arrived in 2009).

I am old.