Garrett Fishaw's Guesses for Class of 16 - November Edition
For those who are not familiar with this guy he is a contributor to Maize 'n Brew and has his own site. He also went out on a limb with the Walker to UM thing before anyone else I believe. He does a monthly guess of the recruiting class. Now that we are in the home stretch thought it would be worth getting another guestimate on how it closes with a guy who follows this stuff closely, has some sources, and reads premium boards.
Probably more interesting than any specific name are the comments that up to 4 players (his estimate) could fall under grayshirt / decommit / grades don't work out. That doesn't include David Reese who we already discussed yesterday as apparently on his way elsewhere. So that would be 5 players in total currently committed w/ David.
First mentioned by Wolverine247’s Steve Lorenz over the summer, there’s a good chance Michigan will have a couple grayshirts in 2016 ($). But that’s not all. The Michigan Insider’s Sam Webb and Allen Trieu are also hearing that there could be some attrition in the class because of grade issues and parting ways with current commits so they can find a better opportunity elsewhere ($). That would mean up to four more spots being available and 12 more recruits being added to the list overall.
Hence his class - minus David - is "32 people" of which he expects 4 to be in categories above. So you will see a lot of names below. Also he has a penchant for being pretty damn bullish on all things UM from my cursory reading so some salt thrown in there. Along with the normal salt when trying to guestimate such things.
I sorted the future projected commits by his "confidence" level below and took a little blurb off each one, he has much more commentary on his site.
Excellent
- Pie Young - "may not be the highest wr on the board, but most likely to end up in the class."
Very Good
- Kareem Walker - "all signs point to UM."
- Terrance Davis - "While Delance looks to be higher on the board, Davis is the more realistic option at this moment."
- Chris Daniels - "Daniels makes his first appearance on the list and it’s for good reason. Though it’s not a slam dunk. He officially visits Oklahoma this weekend and they are a legit threat."
- Rashan Gary - "It’s no secret that UM is in the driver’s seat for Gary but there is still time to go until NSD."
- Jonathan Jones - "With the linebacker attrition in the class, him still being extremely high on UM, and his official visit coming up next week, it looks like he will indeed have that opening to join the class."
- Devin Bush Jr - "Bush Jr went from an expected summer commitment, to a lock to end up in the class and now to a toss up."
- Lavert Hill - "Though he remains committed to PSU, all signs point to him flipping his commitment..."
- David Long - "All signs are pointing to him not only decommitting from the Cardinal but also favoring and likely choosing the Wolverines. "
Good
- Isaac Nauta - "But when you add all the pieces together and throw in the turmoil going on in Athens, things look good here for Michigan."
- Keyshon Comp - "I went back and forth with Jordan Elliott and Camp in this spot for awhile but though Elliott has named Michigan his leader and Camp is still committed to USC, I’ll go with Camp to land this spot at the end of the day."
Out of Left Field
- Jordan Fuller - "Definitely going out on a limb here on this one."
===================================
Not on the List
- Nordin - UM not in a position to use a scholarship on him so he would need to be convinced to use grayshirt at first.
- Crawford - Now has childhood dream offer of Oregon.
- Elliott - Decommitted twice already so hard to trust as a pick.
- Delance - OSU visit will be huge to move needle
- Onwuzurike - Too many unknowns
- Mathis - Can only take 1 other TE and already have Nauta on his list.
- Kelly - Staff not as high on him as scouting services, OU lean.
- Murphy - Has yes to set up official, when he does it could get interesting
- Jackson - Staff loves him, has official vs OSU.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^
I love Fish, but he always is wildly optimistic.
He's good for a take on why Michigan could be the choice and is somewhat reliable if you adjust his "probabilities" to account for his optimism.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^
Yep I noted that in the OP - he is a "sunny side up" person. Throw salt on him and let him de-ice.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:56 AM ^
Fair enough. I didn't read closely enough.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:22 AM ^
Love his recruiting info (with a big grain of salt), but had to unfollow because of his in-game commentary. It was pretty bad compared to the guys who KNOW football (Space Coyote and Smart Football).
November 19th, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^
This would basically be the best Michigan class in the rivals/scout era. It's more "best possible outcome" than "best guess." But hey, I ain't complainin'.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^
I had previously thought that 28 was a large class, 32 is huge, talk about getting your guys in quickly. My biggest surprise from that article was the mention of freshman transferring. I would imagine those are either redshirt freshman, or guys who had committed while hoke was around; still a little surprising to me though.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^
Well it would be a 28 class of offered scholarships. You could go up higher than that with grayshirts. But he is not implying it will be 32 even with grayshirts. He has 32 names because some current commits won't be in the class (and some will grayshirt).
November 19th, 2015 at 10:15 AM ^
Alum96, is there a maximum number of early enrollments that are allowed? Do you have any idea how many early enrollees we can expect?
November 19th, 2015 at 10:18 AM ^
No. But you can only have 85 under scholarship at any 1 time. So your EE is limited by attrition.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:47 AM ^
Sam Webb stated on the recruiting roundup that there could be 8.
QB - Peters
RB - K. Davis
WR's - Mitchell and Hawkins
TE - McKeon
LB - Kemp
He added that RB - Walker and Bush Jr. are posible as well.
I'm not sure which day he said that but it was earlier this week.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^
Notice what side of the ball they almost all are on. Infusion of playmakers anyone?
November 19th, 2015 at 9:58 AM ^
I thought 28 was the max you were allowed in the B1G. Of course, the OP mentioned grayshirts.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:06 AM ^
I think that having a list of 32 is a polite way of not guessing who will not make the cut... but I didn't read his commentary so I could be wrong.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^
Just read where the extra spots are coming from. On that note, are we allowed to recruit over 28? I thought that was a hard limit in the Big Ten?
November 19th, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^
Early enroll backdate. We only took like 16 or something last year. That isn't the issue. It's finding the total amount to be under 75 or whatever it is
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
November 19th, 2015 at 11:59 AM ^
I'm no expert, but I don't think this is right. I think you're only allowed to backdate 3 (at least in the B1G). This is where the 28 limit comes from - 25 count against 2016 and 3 against 2015 class.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^
right now, but the one caveat is LB. We badly need a couple guys who are capable of playing early, and if we whiff on either or both Jones and Bush, that could be a problem.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
I think Devin Bush Jr. is the guy I want most in this class.
I so look forward to a day when this pic pops up in a thread.
November 19th, 2015 at 3:30 PM ^
You know who really wants Bush?
Johnson.
/Sends inner 12 year old out of the room. No more internet for you.
November 19th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
are visiting next week and we may have a good shot at Jackson at least. I think Jones has been a backup plan all along.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^
The attrition that will come after the season will be very interesting to follow. For a lot of guys you can see the writing on the wall but this staff will also have to make some tough calls on some guys that in other years may still be given an opportunity. I trust this staffs judgement because they know what it takes to be successful because they have been successful. Based on year 1, the future of Michigan football is in good hands.
I enjoy reading MGoFish's take on recruiting because yes, he is glass half full, but at the same time he is very detailed as well. He provides a compact analysis of all that is heard from premium sites/ his own sources and brings them to one place. The biggest thing is that he does not claim that all the info that he puts down in his best guess lists or his updates are his own and gives credit where it is due. He doesn't steal for his own gain and is making accurate assessment of all the recruiting info that is out there. There is a lot to be said about what he does because in todays day of recruiting there are lots of recruiting "experts"
November 19th, 2015 at 10:27 AM ^
Would have been nice to list the positions for the guys in your list after their names. While I follow recruiting, keeping track of all these names is tough.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^
Amateur.
Everyone else here knows their middle name, birthday, and length of their inseam.
November 19th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^
And for some of them, not just the inseam...
"your tailor is a very bad man!"
November 19th, 2015 at 5:40 PM ^
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fANwTBK3Ylg
Yes. Yes, it is. In prison!
November 19th, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^
Click on link in sentence 3 and he has that for you along with more commentary.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^
That would be a fantastic haul. I think everyone gets way too worked up about the class size when discussing their projections. It is just way too far out and there are too many variables, especially when accounting for presumed future attrition or decommits. For example, this summer how many articles/posts did we read about all the attrition that never happened with certain linemen, WRs and DBs?
November 19th, 2015 at 10:42 AM ^
Give me Gary. I will work with the rest, Harbaugh development will transform most. Gary and Nauta would be epic. It could happen.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:52 AM ^
I enjoy Fish's recruiting updates for informative purposes, but find it hard to place much value on these types of predictions because they're SO over the top optimistic. But good if taken at face value.
Unfortunately I had to unfollow because there is so much detritus mixed in his Twitter feed. Yes I get that you are a Detroit fan but I would venture a guess and say a very very VERY small percentage of your followers followed based on your Lions and Pistons takes. It's not that he can't express those opinions, but it was just too much in relation to the amount of Michigan news and notes.
November 19th, 2015 at 11:00 AM ^
Kelly really isn't an Oklahoma lean anymore. Not sure how much I trust this list with things like that still being mentioned.
November 19th, 2015 at 11:07 AM ^
If your going to hijack his content at least throw a link to where you found this so the guy can get some hits.
November 19th, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
Link is in sentence 3.
November 19th, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^
It's right there in the first paragraph.
November 19th, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^
(in reply to Rescue_Dawn)
November 19th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^
I stand corrected.......cant really see it on mobile.....I guess my dad is right I am a piece of crap.
November 19th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^
Speaking as a Dad, we're usually right about stuff like that. You should take it to heart...
November 19th, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^
Not sure if the confidence levels are from him or if you sorted them into your own feeling of his feeling. But the "Very Good" level seems to contain wildly different levels of optimism. There are a couple toss-ups (or even recruits that lean elsewhere) mixed in with very likely commits. Also I'm wearing maize glasses here but Gary would be higher for me than most of those in the same category. We've been burned before, of course, but I really think he'll go blue.
November 19th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
Those are his confidence levels.
I think the 1st two categories are mostly guys who have been UM leans forever (Davis, Jones) or guys rumored to flip forever (Hill) or guys most think UM is in the lead for at this point (Gary, Walker) so not unreasonable on most. Long and Daniels are probably the most unlikely of that group just in terms of UM being "late momentum" on those 2 but had good recent visits. Bush Jr many thought would commit this summer despite FSU bloodlines. So you could make a legit case for any and all of those 1st two groups. Of course it won't all work out so pretty in the end.
The bottom 3 guys are more reaches as he has noted.
November 19th, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^
Michigan's recruiting pitch needs just one word, "HARBAUGH!"
November 19th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^
interesting he says the coaches aren't as high on Kelly as the websites are. when I watched his junior film I saw a great athlete but he looked really raw, more of a finesse player. in some ways Reeses' film was more impressive, more of a hard nosed player. can't deny Kellys athleticism though.
November 19th, 2015 at 5:14 PM ^
No idea why he's a five star
November 19th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^
Thank You MGOBLOG & MGOFISH for what you guys do. KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK & THANK YOU AGAIN
November 19th, 2015 at 12:47 PM ^
You can be a highly rated high school football recruit whose childhood favorite team was Oregon. Oregon has been really good for about six years (Chippy Chip arrived in 2009).
I am old.
November 19th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^
Imagine what these kids think about Michigan then. We've been pretty bad since they were about 10 years old. Now they're almost 18, adults.
November 19th, 2015 at 5:16 PM ^
Yeah but they've grown up seeing Harbaugh being Harbaugh
November 19th, 2015 at 1:03 PM ^
Kids who are in high school today have seen a pretty high-quality Oregon program since birth. They were 9-3, 10-2, and 11-1 from 1999-2001. Then they had a few mediocre years before becoming a perennial powerhouse.
November 19th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^
I thiink Lions fans remember Joey Harrington pretty well Magnus
November 19th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^
Will always and forever be Padraig
November 19th, 2015 at 2:25 PM ^
He's a tough opponent.
November 19th, 2015 at 3:18 PM ^
From this...
To this....