Game by Game Odds - give me yours
I am stealing the format of the "12-0" post, rejecting its conclusions, and tweaking it to give numerical game-by-game odds. I think we'll know infinitely more after 2 games, but this is my sober assessment right now. I do not claim to be any expert -- give me your odds.
Sept. 5 Western Michigan (80%)
Sept. 12 Notre Dame (50%)
Sept. 19 Eastern Michigan (95%)
Sept. 26 Indiana (Homecoming) (85%)
Oct. 3 at Michigan State (50%)
Oct. 10 at Iowa (40%)
Oct. 17 Delaware State (90%)
Oct. 24 Penn State (40%)
Oct. 31 at Illinois (35%)
Nov. 7 Purdue (75%)
Nov. 14 at Wisconsin (55%)
Nov. 21 Ohio State (15%)
Sept. 5 Western Michigan (70%)
Sept. 12 Notre Dame (40%)
Sept. 19 Eastern Michigan (95%)
Sept. 26 Indiana (Homecoming) (80%)
Oct. 3 at Michigan State (60%)
Oct. 10 at Iowa (45%)
Oct. 17 Delaware State (90%)
Oct. 24 Penn State (25%)
Oct. 31 at Illinois (40%)
Nov. 7 Purdue (65%)
Nov. 14 at Wisconsin (50%)
Nov. 21 Ohio State (35%)
This has been done before, but its always a good time.
WMU - Win (They get crushed when they play teams with a pulse not named Illinois. See, e.g., Nebraska, Ball state, and Rice last year.)
ND - Close Loss (Should have beaten them last year, its a home game, but Weis's whole career might ride on doing well in this game to kick off their season. They'll probably get 4 turnovers from us and then win with a last second field goal)
Eastern - Win
IU - Win
State - Close Loss (Eh this is probably one of those games we should win on paper, but will lose. It's at state. Gotta pick an "upset" somewhere. I think they lost to all ranked teams they played last year though, so there's that.)
Iowa - Loss. (They were pretty good last year and its @ Iowa.)
Del State - Win
Penn State - Loss
Illinois - Close Win - (They went like 5-7 last year and only beat terrible teams, but its @ IU)
Purdue - Win (we almost beat them last year and we practically let them score the entire game...and its at home this year. no way we lose this time)
Wisconsin - Close loss
OSU - Loss (But at least not a total blow out this time)
That makes 6-6. Pretty likely scenario if you ask me. I'll give myself a +/- 1 window.
IU is Indiana.
I predict 8-4 this year.
5-0 vs so called "gimmes."
(Western, Eastern, Indiana, Delaware, Purdue.)
2-3 vs "even odds."
(ND, MSU, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin)
1-1 vs "probable losses."
(OSU, Penn State)
Won't predict who exactly the 4 losses come against. Too many variables with team health, weather, backs to the wall, etc., etc.
...What kind of Michigan fan predicts a loss against Ohio State. I don't care what our record is and what theirs is going into the game. Michigan fans predicting a loss to Ohio State amongst each other is a sad day. Has everyone forgotten Biakabutuka destroying an "unbeatable" Ohio State team in 1995 or us doing it again to another "unbeatable" team the next year. Or the 28-0 drubbing in 1993 of another undefeated OSU team. Predict the rest of the games if you want...but I don't want to come on this blog and read Michigan fans predicting a loss to those bastards. They are coming to our house this year and they are gonna come in overconfident...and we are gonna fuck them up and leave them crying after the game. That's my prediction for the game. And if you are predicting a loss to OSU, either keep it to yourself or go to Columbus and just bend over for them. That's all I got to say.
Oh, and Brandon Minor is gonna be the shit this year. He's gonna be the breakout player of the year in the Big Ten.
I like to think of it as if I were in Vegas and was going to bet on the moneyline. If you were going to give me +100 or better to take OSU straight up, I think that would be a great investment opportunity.
Realistically too you can't have Michigan 50% against MSU, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, etc. because there is no way they would be favored straight up at this point. Could this change 3 games into the season? Sure. Will it change? I certainly hope so.
...The Michigan/OSU rivalry is not about odds. It's not about a fucking investment opportunity. It's about Michigan pride and beating the shit out of those assholes. I don't care how bad our team is, you don't bet against us in the Michigan/OSU rivalry. That was the mindset in the 1990s and that should be the mindset now. And if you don't agree...as I said, move to Columbus and just bend over for them. The game is in The Big House. They should never win in the Big House.
My prediction: Michigan 24, OSU 20
Three Facts:
1) 2007: We lost to Appy State in the Big House
2) 2008: We lost to Toledo in the Big House
3) You have posted an awful lot in this thread
Three Epinions
1) 2009: We will probably lose a game we should have won in the Big House, and the Ohio State game is not in the "we should have won" category
2) It is not the 1990s anymore - things change. It is dumb to blindly expect us to win every game - it's not going to happen.
3) As someone on this blog mentioned awhile back, it is going to be nice to change from "fearing we will lose" to "building up a program" (or something like that). It is Year 2 in the rebuilding phase and we will have a freshman start at QB for us. And you are expecting us to Beat OSU, a team that has gone to something like 10 BCS bowls in a row. You are high.
Yeah, I can't believe everyone on here saying we'll lose to tuos. That's bullshit. UM should ALWAYS expect to beat tuos.
No sugarcoat?
Wait, OSU 20? WTF bro?! What fan thinks OSU will get 20 points on us?
I say, MIchigan 217, $O$U 0 (the first $ stands for $tupid cheater$)
A more relevant discussion would be about who Michigan will beat in the national championship game, and by how much.
Why are you so negatative? Your not a real Michigan fan hahaLOL Why don't you move to Columbus haha LOL Thats the problem with fans here... your all so relentlessly negitative, or secret OSU fans haha LOL Brian should ban all people who predict Michigan losses haha LOL because you know that having negative opinions on blogs is what causes Michigan to lose. its like bending over for $uckeyes haha LOL Anybody who predicts a Michigan loss is a pu$$y hahaLOL GO BLUE!!!!
YOU WIN THE INTERNETS
This post is great. If only you could've changed your join date to yesterday.
+ 1
I really like NickUmich's attitude. We need more of that on this board. Plus, giving us a 15% chance against OSU is not only shameful, it is silly. I would bet 100% of the time that we have more than a 15% chance of beating any team we play - this due to the nature of the game (the team that wins is not always the better team) AND because we are Michigan (our level of talent, coaching, and, yes, our confident fan base).
Second that one. Don't forget we play tuos at the end of the year and not game one.
For all of these oddsmakers, do you want to bet that tuos will win the game in 4 years from now? If so, I don't value your opinion very much. If not, where is the line where Michigan winning is no longer improbable?
I would recommend to Brian that anyone who predicts Michigan losing to Ohio State on this website should be banned. Or at least given a warning and suspension for a period of time. I know we can't have an effect on the game, but lets do our own little part to change the Michigan attitude going into the game. At least delete the comments predicting a loss. I know that guy who says we could go 12-0 is somewhat delusional (I think we will go 8-4 or possibly 9-3 if we can avoid a really bad loss), but at least he isn't predicting the assholes from Columbus to beat us. Cause that is just disgusting.
So when Brian predicted that we would lose to Ohio State last year, should he have banned himself?
Yeah! LOL...I think last year was the exception and we should never speak of it again. At the very least we shouldn't be predicting a loss to OSU before the season even starts and we get to see the product on the field.
I don't believe in retroactive punishment...the policy should be announced and explained first.
you really dont understand what 'odds' are. the post started with 'give numerical game-by-game odds'. no one on the board said that they want ohio state to win. you want to ban people and delete comments for people being logical?
good grief. maybe the terrorists have won.
I don't mind people giving odds on the game. The first comments on the board were what got me..."loss" and "probable loss." And I don't really want to ban people (it's not really a serious suggestion)...I'm just trying to make a point that we shouldn't go in thinking that OSU is going to own us. Don't take things so literally.
I'm absolutely positive Michigan will lose to OSU this year. Just my epinion, no sugar coating it.
...your profile picture is "the Dean Scream." LOL ;)
Why stop there? Why not ban ALL loss predictions? Why not ban any comment that is not 100% pro Michigan victory! the Wolverine Liberation Army supports your positions.
I think this guy's a waste of oxygen. Just my e-pinion.
Every game is 50/50, you either win or lose.
Donovan McNabb agrees 100%.
why aren't you at the CiL?
Am now. Oops.
Defining %s based on if we played 100x, how many I think we'd win.
Sept. 5 Western Michigan (60-75%) Lots of experience vs. Tate = worrisome
Sept. 12 Notre Dame (50-60%) favored slightly, should win, might not
Sept. 19 Eastern Michigan (98%) If Ron English weren't there, this might be 100%
Sept. 26 Indiana (Homecoming) (90%)
Oct. 3 at Michigan State (60%) Is this the year Sparty implodes? Probably.
Oct. 10 at Iowa (30-45%) I still remember the good Ferentz coaching years
Oct. 17 Delaware State (95-100%) Could be a bad DII team vs. a good Michigan team.
Oct. 24 Penn State (40-60%) I have no clue how good they're going to be yet.
Oct. 31 at Illinois (30-45%) Juice as a senior?
Nov. 7 Purdue (75%)
Nov. 14 at Wisconsin (50-75%) I think Wisky might be terrible this year.
Nov. 21 Ohio State (55%) This # goes up/down significantly if the wrong injury hits either team.
Sept. 5 Western Michigan (50/50)
Sept. 12 Notre Dame (50/50)
Sept. 19 Eastern Michigan (50/50)
Sept. 26 Indiana (Homecoming) (50/50)
Oct. 3 at Michigan State (50/50)
Oct. 10 at Iowa (50/50)
Oct. 17 Delaware State (50/50)
Oct. 24 Penn State (50/50)
Oct. 31 at Illinois (50/50)
Nov. 7 Purdue (50/50)
Nov. 14 at Wisconsin (50/50)
Nov. 21 Ohio State (50/50)
Western Michigan - Lots of experience coming back on offense, but will senior QB Hiller be able to come back from ACL surgery this past January. He is sitting out spring practice, so WMU may be starting a freshman come the first game of the year. WMU is also replacing a ton of talent on defense. They will vulnerable here.
Notre Lame - If UM doesn't spot the Irish 21 points to start the game, UM should pull out a victory, especially being at home.
MSU - lost 90% of the offensive production. Pretty decent defense coming back. This one's up in the air because it is at MSU. 50/50.
Iowa - tough to play at Kinnick. Iowa returns a great defense. Replacing Green will be tough. Low scoring game.
Fine, OSU has our number and we will lose. Great attitude.
I don't think you guys understand that the Michigan/OSU game is supposed to be different. But that's fine. Keep building up the Buckeyes as unbeatable against us. Hell, why should we even play the game anymore? Lets just give them the victory. Btw, I wasn't serious about banning people...I was just being dramatic to make a point about the first two out of three posts on here that said we are going to lose to OSU. Do you think Bo had that attitude in 1969? Hell no. But go ahead and shout me down for not talking up Ohio State on a fucking Michigan football blog. How dare I, eh?
No.
(1) We understand PERFECTLY that Michigan/OSU IS different.
(2) NOBODY is championing OSU as unbeatable.
(3) We are not players, and we are not coaches.
(4) Nobody is "talking up" OSU. People are making comparisons between OSU and Michigan this year.
I fully agree that Michigan SHOULD expect to beat Ohio State every year because Michigan should consistently be in the upper echelon of football programs. BUT the fact is that Michigan is rebuilding and retooling and coming off a 3-9 season. OSU is not. That does not mean people are proclaiming OSU as unbeatable or putting OSU on a pedestal -- that's simply reality.
I stand corrected. I was in a bad mood all day and my friend had been bad-mouthing Michigan and talking up OSU the other day. I guess it just got to me. Re-reading the blog entries, you're right. I was just being a dick. LOL You can't say I don't bleed Maize and Blue though.
No problem; it happens. You can always respond to people like that by quizzing them: which NCAA team has the most all-time wins? Winning percentage? What is the significance of the number "57"? And on and on. MSU fans are the easiest to quiz: when was the last time MSU played in a Rose Bowl/won a Big Ten Championship?
Don't let them get to you -- one terrible season in over three decades, and suddenly "Michigan sucks" is all that we hear. Heck, MSU fans actually believe that Michigan's reign as the best in-state program is over. Which, um, not so much. Not even close.
But you're right about one thing for sure: nobody will ever mistake you for anything other than a Michigan fan.
And just some friendly parting advice: suggesting that "real fans" (or some equivalent) always do (insert whatever you want here), will always draw fire.
I don't think I ever used the term "real fans always do ____" though. Did I? I guess I might as well have. I always respond to the Michigan hecklers with the kind of stuff you suggested. We obviously are the best. They always respond with, "well that's history. What have you done lately?" It's always the same old argument. Oh well. They know we're the best deep down.
I still stand by my statement that the people commenting on this site are too down on Michigan when it concerns the Michigan/OSU rivalry. We shouldn't be predicting a likely loss on here. It's a rivalry game, so the mentality should be "throw out the records. Whoever wants it more, will win."
As for MSU fans thinking they are the best in-state program. HAHA. That's funny.