Game Day Weather PosBang

Submitted by NYC Fan on October 6th, 2017 at 11:12 AM

Looks like the rain dances worked, or anti rain dances?!?!  Now, about that wind....

Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 83F. Winds SSW at 15 to 25 mph.


James Burrill Angell

October 6th, 2017 at 12:35 PM ^

These are hourly forecasts starting at 7pm tomorrow night. That 10pm forecast is not looking good.

Further.....if thunder/lightning does in fact come, they have to stop the game for 30 minutes right. If I remember correctly they actually cleared the stadium for that Utah game a few years ago. What a frigging debacle that would be late in the game, especially if its close.

7:00 PM

Mostly Cloudy 78° 80°
56% S 17 mph
8:00 PM

Showers 75° 76°
63% S 18 mph
9:00 PM

Showers 75° 75°
69% S 17 mph
10:00 PM

Rain 73° 74°
73% SSW 18 mph
11:00 PM

Thunderstorms 71° 71°
73% SSW 18 mph
12:00 AM

Showers 69° 69°
77% SSW 16 mph



October 6th, 2017 at 12:55 PM ^

Speaking from experience as a high school baseball coach whose life rotates around the hourly forecast...


24-48 hours out, the trend is to be early with predicted precipitation more often than not.


So a football game at 7:30pm Saturday night, and on Friday they're predicting showers starting at 8 or 9, in my mind I'm banking on us being safe until midnight or later.


We'll see if this plays out as such on Saturday, but I'm not worried.... now.


October 7th, 2017 at 10:28 AM ^

So yesterday the forecast called for showers starting at around 8 or 9.


Right now at 10:24am, the Weather Channel has a 0% chance of rain from now until 6pm. 5% at 7:00, 10% at 8:00, 25% at 9:00, 85% at 10:00, 95% at 11:00.


AccuWeather is similar, though they tend to up the chance of precipitation due to humidity more than the Weather Channel does; AccuWeather has rain at 20% or below from 6 until 10, then at 11 it spikes to 68%.


I'm holding out hope that by 3:00 this afternoon, the prediction is that the storm hits after midnight, when we're all somewhere besides the stadium letting it all hang down.

Rochester Blue

October 6th, 2017 at 11:31 AM ^

The good news is, that as we get closer to gametime, the rain is coming later and later. The bad news is they're probably getting more and more accurate with their forecast.

Went from rain all day, to rain after 3, now to rain 39% chance around 8:00. By 9:00, we won't be able to tell the difference between the rain and Sparty tears

True Blue Grit

October 6th, 2017 at 11:26 AM ^

The video in the article gives a good summary of the rain potential.  Summary:  a storm front is projected to arrive later in the evening - could be in the 4th quarter or soon after the game.  Right now, it's difficult to be precise.  Most of the rest of the day should be great - warm with partial sun in the p.m.


October 6th, 2017 at 11:29 AM ^

I'll get in on the banging. No matter the weather it will be my sons first night game. He got into an advanced math program at school so I get to do my parenting duty and get him hooked on Michigan football.


October 6th, 2017 at 11:33 AM ^

Warm-  Feels like 76 to begin the game dropping to 67 at 11:00

Wind-   18mph at 7:30 increasing to 23mph at 10:30

Rain-  0% chance at 7:30 but increases to a 41% chance at 10:30 then 54% chance at 11:05

I've found this app to be much more accurate than Weather channel and other apps that I've used.

I hope JOK can account for the wind in his passing attempts-  makes those shorter TE routes more valuable.



October 6th, 2017 at 11:37 AM ^

Extremely dynamic mid level system set to impact the region Saturday
evening.  Pronounced warm sector preceding this system surges into
the region during the daylight period under strengthening southwest
flow.  Mixed signal yet on the degree of cloud cover within this
environment, but still looking at a well mixed profile up through
850 mb by afternoon.  This will translate into windy conditions
during the latter half of the day.  Latest local probabilistic wind
guidance lends increasing confidence for witnessing gusts of 35 to
40 mph throughout the afternoon period.  This will contribute to a
strong thermal response, with temperatures expected to eclipse 80

Inbound system will take on a negative tilt upon arrival Saturday
evening /00z-06z/, generating a tremendous dynamic response along
the main thermal/height gradient.  Some uncertainty yet as to the
possible convective response, given a classic high shear but low
instability environment.  Regardless, the magnitude of the existing
wind field - 55+ knots at 850 mb - certainly presents the potential
for a higher end wind response to emerge along any shallow
convective line, as well as with the trailing isallobaric forcing.
Forecast will continue to call for gusts upwards of 40 mph during
this time, but a damaging wind threat will exist.



October 6th, 2017 at 12:16 PM ^

Some people live outside of Ann Arbor.  Those people will be traveling in to spend the day there.  Given that the weather has went from an all day rain, to a potential 2nd Half of the football game rain, I thought it was worth posting.

Sorry that I am excited to make the 4 hour drive in my car tonight to spend the day in the warmth outside the stadium tomorrow.