Gambling odds on Michigan starting QB week 1

Submitted by Bigku22 on July 24th, 2017 at 8:57 PM

As a gambling degenerate, I always have my eye on a number of different offshore sites looking at new postings. 

Bookmaker.eu just posted some "College Football Special Props", and they have odds on Week 1 starting QBs for a number of teams including Michigan. I found the odds MUCH closer than I would have anticipated. 

Michigan Starting QB Week 1

Speight -105 (51.22% implied probability, meaning you need to bet $105 to win $100)

Peters +110 (47.62% implied probability, meaning a $100 bet wins $110)

Almost a coinflip. This does not mean they have inside info or anything, and this isn't a Vegas prop it's only offshore, but setting close to even was quite surprising to me. I would have had Speight closer to 60-70%. 

https://www.bookmaker.eu/live-lines/football

Comments

Bigku22

July 25th, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^

I don't have any personal experience at TopBet but that Sportsbookreview site is great for finding trustworthy books. I personally have accounts at 5dimes, Betonline, Sportsbook.ag, and Heritage along with bookmaker. The only one that's a little shady is sportsbook.ag (slow payouts).

My best advice, if you really want to sports bet properly, you should have 3-5 different books so you can take advantage of the best lines. Using just one handicaps you.

Bigku22

July 25th, 2017 at 12:06 PM ^

It's illegal similar to the way downloading free music is illegal. Millions of people are doing it, it's basically ignored by the government.

If you're not betting tens or hundreds of thousands (then trying to withdraw/launder that money back to the US) you have nothing to worry about.

OwenGoBlue

July 25th, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^

It's a weird opening line for a prop bet; nobody on this here board is trying to bet Peters with those odds and I can't imagine we're that much different than the Michigan betting public.

I was joking about them having inside info; seems more likely they're putting out a prop like this (one designed to produce big action regardless of balance) because they're just going to stop paying people by then. 

lhglrkwg

July 24th, 2017 at 9:15 PM ^

I know Peters is going to be great, but he's going to have to have an outrageous fall camp to unseat Speight for game 1. Wouldn't surprise me if he got snaps in that game, but I'd be shocked if he took the first snap (and admittedly enthused because Peters beating out Speight means he's probably about to give us 2-3 years of incredible QB play)

ThadMattasagoblin

July 24th, 2017 at 9:17 PM ^

I'd put Speight at 85 percent chance to start because it's Florida and Peters hasn't played. However, if Speight throws an OSU type interception or is ineffective like the Iowa or FSU game, I think you see a quick hook. Practice reports can be faulty see JOK but Peters looked great in both the spring game and Rome game.

PopeLando

July 24th, 2017 at 10:06 PM ^

Considering that Speight threw an interception on literally his first pass last season and didn't even get the hook with a broken collarbone (collarbone, right??)...

I think it's fair to say that Speight will not be getting a quick hook at any point this season.

TrueBlue2003

July 25th, 2017 at 1:04 AM ^

pull Speight after even a bad pick-six.  He just doesn't do that to QBs.  He's picking the guy that gives them the best chance to win based on basically two years worth of spring and fall camps, plus last season in which both guys were in the program.  One pick isn't going to change his view of who gives us the best chance.

It would take something disastrous - like three picks in the first half - for the starter to get yanked.

PopeLando

July 25th, 2017 at 8:20 AM ^

Listen, I'll admit I was on Team O'Korn last year...until we saw O'Korn in extended action. I suspect that you are on Team Peters, and looking for a reason that he'll play. That's fine, but it's still Backup QB Syndrome.

Harbaugh obviously doesn't believe that yanking a QB makes the team better. He obviously believes that Speight is the guy. People on this board who have a track record of being very right have pegged Speight as the guy.

As bright as the future looks under Peters, I think the only way he sees the field against Florida is a) blowout or b) injury.

Mr Miggle

July 24th, 2017 at 11:57 PM ^

Harbaugh has in Peters. I have the feeling he'd be happier with him under center in 2017 than O'Korn in 2016. Also whether Wilton makes the same mistakes in a game that he makes in practice should factor in. I think after one bad game qualifies as a quick hook. I can't see it ever happening for one bad play.

Teach_Coach_GoBlue

July 25th, 2017 at 7:00 AM ^

I think this is a fair point, and something I was thinking about as I read other comments. But, I think a lot of us thought that O'Korn was going to be the guy last year, maybe somewhat similar to people who are on the Peters train already. IMO, if Harbaugh picks Speight, that's good enough for me. I think Peters has a good future; if that happens sooner rather than later, again, I believe in Harbaugh's evaulation way more than my own or other fans

M_Born M_Believer

July 25th, 2017 at 10:41 AM ^

While there were reports of O'Korn playing so well in fall camp last year, Wilton started.  The way the season played out is that Wilton was clearly ahead of O'Korn and Harbaugh only went to O'Korn in an emergencey start (Indiana).

Here is the speculation, Peters has shown some results (be that in scrimmages only to date).  It comes down to Harbaugh's level of confidence in Peters.  In SF, he had Alex Smith playing well, but once Alex got hurt (with eh playing results), Colin came in and SF took off.

So the million dollor question is, will this fall be more like last year (Wilton is the clear starter and O'Korn is used in emergencey  only) OR will it be like in SF (Wilton is the start, but he better not get hurt or play poorly because Peters is ready to step in)?

I am not stating either way, just pointing out there are different scenarios in JH past where he has gone both ways.  Bottomline, JH will play whoever he feels gives the team the best chance to win.

mgowill

July 24th, 2017 at 11:00 PM ^

Agree to disagree.  Harbaugh is loyal to his QB, maybe even too much.  Speight looked like hot garbage in the second half versus Iowa, was injured part way through, and didn't get the hook.  His last drive ended in an interception driving towards the endzone.  I don't expect that we will see Peters versus Florida unless something drastically changes in fall camp, Speight gets injured between now and then, or Speight throws three passes for three interceptions on his first three passes versus Florida.

Sextus Empiricus

July 25th, 2017 at 2:49 AM ^

Harbaugh will start the best QB.  He will devise a Fall practice that will show him and the rest of the team who that QB is.  There will be no controversy.   The best QB starts.  Harbaugh is all about this. Professional teams lag QBs for contracts and money.  Not so much college.  The touches are too few and far to breed loyalty.  Loyalty is for losers.

That said... Freshmen make silly mistakes.  Florida is too big a game with too fresh a taint to risk it IMO.  If Peters starts... we are going to roll Florida... ie. Harbaugh won't do that unless he can deliver.