Future rankings

Submitted by massblue on June 22nd, 2015 at 10:31 AM

ESPN does a future rankings (next 3-5 years) and here is the updated ranking:

1. OSU; 2. Alabama; 3. FSU; 4. Auburn; 5. LSU; 6. USC; 7. Clemsons; 8. Georgia; 9. Texas; 10. Oregon; 11. ND; 12. TCU; 13. Texas A&M; 14. Baylor; 15. UM


I think ESPN is under-rating MSU and Florida.  Both will be more succesful than Baylor or ND going forward.  




June 22nd, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^

won't copy and paste, but it's based on Coaching, Current talent, recruiting, 'title path', and foundation. 

Clemson in order scores: 7.4, 8.3, 8.6, 8.6, 8.6 

I think their foundation rating is a little high, but they've had solid success recently. Recruiting has been good, they've been top 20 recently but peaked out at 8th last year. 

They also get solid points for being an ACC contender. ESPN basically says the ACC has 3 good teams in FSU, Clemson and Louisville. So while it's not the heavy SEC, a good year in the ACC has a pretty good chance of getting a team to the playoff. 


June 22nd, 2015 at 10:41 AM ^

IF ESPN thinks MSU starts losing every year to UM and OSU, then either UM should be ranked higher or they are exactly where they should be at with MSU being ranked lower. Either way, MSU is ranked below UM.


June 22nd, 2015 at 10:43 AM ^

Interesting that they have us usurping MSU.  I think that we will likely be higher on that list than Baylor, Texas, TCU, Clemson, ND, and TAMU.  There will be others powers not on that list that surface/resurface as well, but I see no argument as to why we aren't a top 5-10 school in 5 years.



June 22nd, 2015 at 10:43 AM ^

If we are only 15th ranked in 3-5 years Harbaugh has not done his job.  Obviously this is just link bait and completely useless speculation but reality is UM needs to be a top 8 type of program starting 3 years from now.  Harbaugh is paid that way and expectations are to be along with OSU the top dog in the conference by that time.

MI Expat NY

June 22nd, 2015 at 11:26 AM ^

i'm not an insider so I can't read the whole article, but from the summary, it sounds like they are ranking the next three years in total.  They may think we're still not going to be great this year or maybe even next, but a significant turnaround in year three could have us as the 15th best team over that 3 year period.  


June 22nd, 2015 at 10:47 AM ^

As another mentioned this is a decent over a beer conversation.

*sips coffee*

FSU it remains to be seen how they will do without Winston and a few others

LSU is a mixed bag not sure I would rank them this high

Clemson I do not get

Georgia & Texas - underperformers for a while not seeing a reason yet why this has changed

ND - overrated as usual

Texas A&M - Not seeing what they're seeing

Baylor - not sold on their greatness yet

MSU needs to be on this list...Dantonio has shown staying power with his program

the real hail_yes

June 22nd, 2015 at 10:52 AM ^

I actually think Baylor can hang around, and its similar to why I think MSU will be in this mix as well. Mark Dantonio is not going to leave MSU, and Art Briles is not going to leave Baylor...

Briles is revered down here in Texas as a football god... he's clearly got some genius and can develop players really well.

South TX MFan

June 22nd, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^

A&M has had several very strong recruiting cycles now, they have a great coach, and now they have a defensive coordinator that knows what he's doing. I expect pretty big things from that team going forward.

Texas on the other hand hasn't shown much so I don't know why they're so far up there, unless they're just going off the fact that we have tons of football talent in the state. I don't agree with their ranking.

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June 22nd, 2015 at 11:05 AM ^

The thing that stands out to me is how espn put four sec teams in the top ten. The bowl performances over the past three years indicate that the sec is what we thought they were... Overrated. I know the common argument is bu bu but they beat up on each other every Saturday. That may be true, but is no less true for any other conference. They also get a bye week in November, I mean a scrimmage against a fcs jv squad. But this click bait is why I stopped watching espn a few years ago.

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June 22nd, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^

Notre Dame has had 1 10+ win season in the past 7 years; tire-fire Michigan has as many 10+ win seasons over that same span.  For some reason people keep thinking ND is going to return to glory or whatever when, frankly, we've had 10+ years of evidence that isn't the case.  They might get lucky every once and a while, but it isn't a given by any means.

I also wonder a bit about A&M.  For all the numbers that offense puts it, Sumlin has been trending down these past couple of years and I'm not remotely certain that they won't keep chugging along at 8-9 wins in the SEC.


June 22nd, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^

If by preseason rankings you mean the offical rankings. The reason they are not meanless is that top ranked pre season teams hold a considerable advantage heading into a season than say a team that is ranked 20-25. Why? Cause it gives the top ranked teams more margin for error. A preseason No. 1 can suffer an early loss and will drop to maybe 8-10 and still ahead of an undefeated team that started the season at No. 25. They will still be very much alive for a playoff berth. An early season loss to a No. 22 team for example can dash a teams playoff hopes.

That advantage has been mitigated more now with the playoff format, before it was a considerable advantage. But preseason rankings are anything by meaningless (rightly or wrongly), in fact I will argue they shape the season.


June 22nd, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^

Michigan's main issue is current talent. 

Coaching - 8.4 (I think low for sure, but I get why they're being cautious with Harbaugh)

Current talent - 6.9 (hard to argue much either way on that) 

Recruiting - 8.3 (fair enough, Hoke did well. Harbaugh is getting rolling but taking lower tier recruits according to the services so even if they're great players it won't show here yet)

Title Path - 6.5 (in same division with OSU and MSU so that makes sense)

Foundation - 9 (fair enough, lots of history, not good recently though)




June 22nd, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^

I am always a bit uncomfortable with these projections because the estimate is based in part on past performance (which in our case will likely not be representative of future results under Harbaugh) and a lot of speculation. I suppose if I had to guess, however, based on the little data that there is on how this will go and if it continues along this path without much interruption, #15 might be a conservative estimate if we're talking, say, 5 years out.